Technical Analysis 11th April 2012
Level 1.5930 became a resistance for the sideways range. Having made another attempt to breach this level, trading is now retracing back down. At the moment it's being carried out at 1.5890/80 levels. Indicators are still "bearish", but they seem to be weakening. However, we still expect a decline towards the auxiliary trend line (blue dashed line) and then towards 1.5760/70, 1.5650/40 – 1.5600 levels. Reversal up and fixation above 1.6000 will, on the other hand, indicate a reversal up.
USD/CHF: rebound likely
The swissie is moving sideways with a slight downside bias. It pulled back from resistance from the upper channel-line at the 0.9200 highs and has since dropped to support at the lower channel- line or floor of the consolidation at 0.9130. This level is further reinforced by support from the 200-4hr MA and the 50-1hr MAs as well as the weekly pivot at 0.9127. Therefore I’d expect it to probably reverse and rise from here to re-touch the 0.9200 highs again, although a breakdown is still a slight possibility with the support at 0.9090 eyed initially, followed by 0.9059.
The price breached downtrend channel's support (blue lines), which indicated further "bearish" scenario. Trading descended to 80.60/50 level, where it's still carried out. Indicators suggest another decline, which gives reasons to anticipate a plunge to the next target at 79.90/80 support, mentioned earlier. However, the price has all chances to reverse up from this barrier on the way down and recommence its bullish trend. Growth above 83.40 resistance will be a sign for reversal up. At the same time, the price can rise from the current local minimums too - 80.50/60 level is a strong support at the moment.
This pair is trading in a range between 1.3150 and 1.3040 and this could continue for a little longer. There is substantial support and resistance at the range lows; momentum is strong on the recent fall and there is the possibility of a breakout from the range to the downside, with an eventual target at 1.2835 initially and then the former 1.2640 lows. A rebound higher, however, cannot be discounted, with the range highs at 1.3300 providing an upside target.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
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