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IFX Gertrude |
Aug 20 2019, 04:33 AM
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Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19
Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190820/analytics5d5b61332c060.png)
Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.
An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190820/analytics5d5b61489769e.png)
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Aug 22 2019, 03:47 AM
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Will the Fed limit itself to one rate cut this year? The pound will remain volatile in the near future
The pound fell in the morning following the release of a report on UK public sector borrowing, while the euro continued to trade in a narrow side channel against the US dollar in anticipation of the July Federal Reserve minutes
The publication of the minutes will show how the committee looks at a further cut in interest rates this year, and to what level the rate can be reduced.
This week, a number of Fed leaders have already expressed their views, but it is premature to draw any conclusions. Let me remind you during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on July 30-31, they decided to lower the interest rate by a quarter point, although some economists suggested that the Fed would lower rates immediately by half a percent. This was the first drop in more than 10 years.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190822/analytics5d5dd3144263d.jpg)
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that this decrease was purely corrective in the middle of the cycle, and it would not be entirely correct to count on a long reduction cycle in the future. Much will depend on the data on the economy that will come in the 3rd quarter of this year. So far, the only thing that could push the issue of lowering the rate by another quarter of a percentage point into consideration is the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China, which is now at an impasse. Let me remind you that the new trade duties will come into force on September 1 of this year. In addition, very low inflation continues to be a problem for the Fed.
Given the fact that the unemployment rate in the US is at a record low and household wages increase without creating additional inflationary pressure, the Fed is just thinking about the risks of deflation, which many Asian countries suffer from.
Do not forget about the constant criticism of the work of the committee by Donald Trump, who "hung all the dogs" on the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell for what he delays in lowering rates and resuming the asset purchase program. By the way, the eurozone and the European Central Bank may return to such a program in the near future, which will further strengthen the US dollar against a number of risky assets and create additional problems for the export of American goods. In any case, Powell is still fighting off all threats from the US president, adhering to the neutrality that is so cared for within the Federal Reserve.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all. Bears will attempt to update last week's lows with a test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If bulls make an attempt to build an upward correction in a pair, then it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.1130. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.
GBPUSD
The British pound slightly fell against the US dollar after the release of the report on net borrowing in the UK public sector. According to data in July this year, borrowing fell by 1.3 billion pounds after a larger reduction of 3.5 billion pounds a year ago. Net public sector demand for cash in the UK in July fell by 14.8 billion pounds against 17.6 billion pounds a year ago. All this suggests that the situation with Brexit, although not so brightly, continues to affect macroeconomic indicators in various fields, which negatively affects the overall economic indicator.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190822/analytics5d5dd3286044c.png)
In any case, the pound's further movement as a whole, like this whole year, will continue to be based on rumors and rebuttals from Brexit news, which exacerbates the overall picture and exposes the pound to excessive volatility.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the upward trend is limited by the resistance of 1.2175, a breakthrough of which will build a new wave of growth and lead to the renewal of highs in the areas of 1.2220 and 1.2270. The medium-term boundary of the downward channel is above this range and it would be impossible to go beyond it without a positive outcome of the situation with Brexit.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Aug 27 2019, 04:45 AM
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The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20160818/analytics57b55cfa36eb7_eu.png)
Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.
In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America. The fact that the production of any product in America is more expensive than in China several times, and accordingly, the price of many goods now produced in China will increase multiple times if production is transferred to the States, Trump does not care. End consumers will pay, and the company will suffer losses, sales of which, of course, will fall due to price growth and reduced demand. Meanwhile, Trump will receive new tax revenues, or not Trump, but the new US President, whose elections will be held in 2020. It is precisely the second term of Trump's presidency that now raises a huge number of questions. China openly expects Trump to lose the election. The longer the trade war with China lasts, the worse America's economy feels, and the better ordinary citizens feel the recession, the less chance that Trump will be re-elected. Even if Trump is right and "China has profited from America for years," the electorate is primarily interested in its own welfare, prices in stores, and the lack of a deficit in the goods it needs. Under Trump, all Chinese products have risen in price, while American or European counterparts are much more expensive. If a trade war also begins with the European Union, then the Americans, who are big fans of the European automobile industry, will also experience a rise in prices for European cars. In this case, it is unlikely that Trump's fans will increase in the election. And, of course, all this will have a negative impact on the US dollar.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Aug 28 2019, 04:44 AM
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TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019
GBP / USD pair Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190828/analytics5d65f09deaef7.png)
A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190828/analytics5d65f0ccbaa15.png)
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Sep 2 2019, 02:56 AM
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Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19
The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190902/analytics5d6c8297e3e73.png)
The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190902/analytics5d6c82adc478e.png)
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Sep 3 2019, 12:58 AM
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Weekly market review
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20160818/analytics57b55cfa36eb7_eu.png)
Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here � random people.
The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!
For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.
Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.
What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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IFX Gertrude |
Sep 5 2019, 03:40 AM
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Golden cosmos
Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.
The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190905/analytics5d704e680591f.png)
On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.
I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.
The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.
Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.
I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!
News are provided by InstaForex
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IFX Gertrude |
Sep 6 2019, 02:10 AM
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Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190906/analytics5d71a261679b1.png)
This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".
In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190905/analytics5d71254d9e3ed.png)
Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.
Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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ifxyvonne |
Sep 10 2019, 05:20 AM
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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2019
EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro made another attempt to work out the target level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this time stopped short of positive news about the growth of Germany's trade balance in July from 18.0 billion euros to 20.2 billion and ideas of Germany to establish a parallel state structure for attracting investment through increased public debt, which turned out to be insufficient.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190910/analytics5d772ea6daacb.png)
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention of a reversal down from the boundary with the growth territory. This is the first, but weak and the only sign of a possible price reversal down, there are no others even on the four-hour chart.
![Reduced Size Image](https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190910/analytics5d772ebc89c29.png)
On H4, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD. Marlin is also in the upward trend zone. If the price consolidates above the level of 1.1073, growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% is possible at the price of 1.1157. The development of the downward trend is possible after the price goes below the MACD line on H4 (1.1006) and under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986. In this case, the target level is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0844.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
This post has been edited by ifxyvonne: Sep 10 2019, 05:21 AM
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