The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team
Total Open Interest 303,113
Net Marginal Change 1,361
Marginal Accumulation 176,057
Change in Total OI (%) 78.24
In yesterday’s trading market added 1,361 new transactions to Euro futures market. This is possibly a continuation of the decline in Open Interest. We should see more negative figures in the coming days. Open interest declined only 4.5% so far. There was only one case where 4% drop in open interest resulted in trend reversal. 5th/10/2011 EUR/USD rallied from 1.31 to 1.41 adding 13% in new long open interest. Looking in the long term pattern in EUR/USD, that rally was just a correction in long declining market. Similar pattern is repeated in other pairs. AUD/USD dropped over 12% OI to reverse from 0.96 (23/11/2011), rallied towards 1.030 area adding 20% in new OI, formed higher bottom and advanced towards today’s levels. Same pattern can be observed in GBP/USD or USD/JPY. For now EUR/USD decreased 4.5% OI. Only 12-20% increase followed by second decline will suggest that the pair corrects before the downtrend resumes. For now, we assume that this is genuine reversal and there will be more upward pressure from now on. Open Interest is still above 300K – record high in this market. This is evidence that most traders are already in the market.
As expected - spot EUR/USD is correcting. We should see more downside in the coming sessions.
If OI falls further – buy on dips.
Total Open Interest 191,982
Net Marginal Change 68
Marginal Accumulation -22,808
Change in Total OI (%) -12.1
The British Pound futures market added only 68 new contracts. The price action reached three months high at 1.5796. There was no sign of letting go today. This is a third consecutive day with positive open interest. We assume that these are new long contracts coming into this market. The trend should be sustained but correction expected. Strategy – buy on dips.
Total Open Interest 160,477
Net Marginal Change 8,922
Marginal Accumulation 1,329
Change in Total OI (%) 0.79
Yen futures open interest increased by another substantial 8,922 new contracts. We are now back to the level from two weeks ago. Yen dropped 12% of open interest last week and a spot price advanced 200 pips From 76.50 to 78.30. It come straight back down to today’s levels. Since that market added over 13% of new open interest in only three days. It is very unusual behaviour indeed. This might reflect uncertainty and BOJ intervention expectation in near future. Strategy – buy USD/JPY close to all time low at USD/JPY. Consider that fundamental analysis favour yen strength over the long run. After correction, we might see even lower prices in USD/JPY in 2012
Total Open Interest 40,279
Net Marginal Change 1,103
Marginal Accumulation 2,068
Change in Total OI (%) 5.10
Frank futures added only 1,103 new transactions. This is third consecutive day with positive open interest after the massive drop. Trader added over 2000 (5.1%) new contracts in only few days. The downtrend should continue. Strategy – sell on rallies.
Total Open Interest 147,293
Net Marginal Change -3,925
Marginal Accumulation 44,633
Change in Total OI (%) 31.00
Australian dollar dropped 3,925 transactions yesterday. This is the first decline of this size in this market since 16th Dec 2011. We still favour higher spot prices AUD/USD. The current trend remains intact for now.
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