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Daily Technical Analysis For Majors By Forex4you

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Apr 11 2012, 12:55 PM

Post #1

Junior Money Maker

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Joined: 11-April 12
Member No.: 268,237

Technical Analysis 11th April 2012

GBP/USD
Level 1.5930 became a resistance for the sideways range. Having made another attempt to breach this level, trading is now retracing back down. At the moment it's being carried out at 1.5890/80 levels. Indicators are still "bearish", but they seem to be weakening. However, we still expect a decline towards the auxiliary trend line (blue dashed line) and then towards 1.5760/70, 1.5650/40 – 1.5600 levels. Reversal up and fixation above 1.6000 will, on the other hand, indicate a reversal up.

USD/CHF: rebound likely
The swissie is moving sideways with a slight downside bias. It pulled back from resistance from the upper channel-line at the 0.9200 highs and has since dropped to support at the lower channel- line or floor of the consolidation at 0.9130. This level is further reinforced by support from the 200-4hr MA and the 50-1hr MAs as well as the weekly pivot at 0.9127. Therefore I’d expect it to probably reverse and rise from here to re-touch the 0.9200 highs again, although a breakdown is still a slight possibility with the support at 0.9090 eyed initially, followed by 0.9059.

USD/JPY
The price breached downtrend channel's support (blue lines), which indicated further "bearish" scenario. Trading descended to 80.60/50 level, where it's still carried out. Indicators suggest another decline, which gives reasons to anticipate a plunge to the next target at 79.90/80 support, mentioned earlier. However, the price has all chances to reverse up from this barrier on the way down and recommence its bullish trend. Growth above 83.40 resistance will be a sign for reversal up. At the same time, the price can rise from the current local minimums too - 80.50/60 level is a strong support at the moment.

EUR/USD
This pair is trading in a range between 1.3150 and 1.3040 and this could continue for a little longer. There is substantial support and resistance at the range lows; momentum is strong on the recent fall and there is the possibility of a breakout from the range to the downside, with an eventual target at 1.2835 initially and then the former 1.2640 lows. A rebound higher, however, cannot be discounted, with the range highs at 1.3300 providing an upside target.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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trevor_l	Jun 8 2012, 02:39 PM Post #21
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 8th June 2012 AUD/USD: triangle completing The counter-trend rally rolled over yesterday and is currently falling. This bear move has consolidated and formed a triangle on the 30min chart. The triangle is near completion and will probably break lower - confirmed by a break of 0.9820 and then targeting the 50-day MA at 0.9785. From there it is possible a reversal will take shape and the rally off the 1st June lows will resume. An upside break out, confirmed by a rise above 0.9860, would on the other hand, be expected to reach the 100-day MA at 0.9890. USD/JPY: break confirmed The USD/JPY has closed on the daily chart above the channel adding confirmation to the bullish breakout. It is now possible that the exchange rate could climb higher and fulfil its breakout target at 80.70. As a precaution I would look for a break of 79.78 highs first. Today the pair is falling and could reach the channel-line which will support at around 79.05, from there it could threaten to break back into the descending channel, however a bounce is more likely given the other support form MA's and pivots. EUR/USD: continuation lower Yesterday's price action took the form of an ominous shooting star candlestick and today has given bearish confirmation. There has been a breakdown out of the ascending channel since the June 1st lows, yielding a target at level of the 1.2287 lows. The weekly pivot at 1.2445 is another closer target and also 1.2330. Right now price is bouncing and could pull-back to 1.2800, but bar a complete reversal latter in the day – which looks unlikely due to the light economic schedule – I think it will continue lower. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 11 2012, 02:33 PM Post #22
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 11th June 2012 EUR/USD: open gap filling There is a strong possibility price may drop to fill the open gap this morning – indeed it already appears to be doing so. The bottom of the gap is at 1.2517 and it is possible it could reach there. A more modest target would come from the cluster of MA’s at 1.2550, which is also the 50% retracement of the bullish break. A recovery move higher would probably target 1.2705 whether from the current level or from 1.2550. USD/JPY The dollar-yen recently broke out of a down-sloping channel and has closed two days running above the channel giving a potentially bullish longer-term outlook. However, today the pair has started to fall after hitting resistance at the 79.70 highs and may return to re-touch the lows and/or the channel line again at around 79.20. If on the other hand there is a break to the upside above 79.70 then the 100 and 50-day MA's at around 80.20 would provide the next target higher. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 12 2012, 02:36 PM Post #23
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 12th June 2012 USD/JPY: consolidation range The dollar-yen is consolidating within a range. Currently it has reached near the the highs at 79.50. It may have completed its move higher and be on the way back down to the bottom of the range at 79.20. There is the possibility of a breakout after the consolidation move has completed. The pair has already broken out of a descending channel on the daily chart and further upside is possible despite waning momentum, with 80.20 targeted higher. EUR/USD The strong move down yesterday may have completed an Elliot wave which could be followed by a counter-trend rally up to resistance at 1.2535/50. Another possibility is that there could be another final wave 5 yet to unfold which could fall to a major support at 1.2445. A break of that would set up for a strong move to the old lows at 1.2287; and even if the pair rallies it should roll-over eventually and fall lower. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 13 2012, 02:56 PM Post #24
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 13th June 2012 EUR/USD: range-bound Eurodollar is trading in a range which it is currently at the top of and poised for a possible breakout higher. If it succeeds then expect a strong move up to the level of the weekly pivot at 1.2630 which is also equal to the width of the consolidation. Given the pair has broken out of its rising channel however a downside bias is present and the possibility of a fall to the major support lows at 1.2450 remains potent. GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair has continued to move sideways in a right-angled triangle consolidation although it has pushed a little higher each time and looks poised for a possible break higher. Candlesticks, however, remain bearish on the hourly chart and it is possible there will be a move down initially, perhaps to support at 1.5525 or even lower to the border of the triangle at 1.5490. A bullish break could reach 1.5670 relatively easily but would meet major resistance from the monthly pivot at that level. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 14 2012, 02:36 PM Post #25
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 14th June 2012 AUD/USD Earlier forecasts, expecting correction in the pair, seem to be confirming, although the price hasn't reached its local lows yet and is still consolidating in the upper part of consolidation range between 1.0000/20 – 0.9860/30 levels, which gives reasons to consider risks of further possible growth to the next resistances at 1.0120/50 level. On the other hand, indicators suggest further decline, most likely towards 0.9620/00 local minimums. 0.9790/0.9800 support breakout will be a signal to the above mentioned scenario. Another bounce from 0.9860/30 support, which is a lower bond of the correction range, will indicate the beginning of the alternative scenario - growth towards 1.0120/50 level. EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY pair is consolidating within a range with a neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias because of the sharp move down on Monday and the exhaustion gap on Friday which probably signalled the end of the up-trend. If it breaks below the 98.69 lows it could continue and re-touch the trend-line at 97.85; alternatively a break above the 100.40 level would signal a probable move higher, perhaps to 101.15 where pivot and moving average merge to cap further gains. GBP/USD 1.5590/1.5600 resistance held back bullish attempts to push the price higher, so trading recommenced its decline and is now carried out at 1.5490/1.5500 level. Indicators are bearish again, suggesting further decline. If currently tested support is breached, the price will plunge towards 1.5400 level and then to the new local minimums at 1.5280/1.5300. On the other hand, it's worth taking into account the fact, that the pair resides close to the upper bound of correction range, which leaves the possibility of further attempts to rise towards higher resistances, most likely at 1.5650 level, mentioned earlier. Medium-term outlook suggests decline to the next targets at 1.5230/20, 1.5100/20supports, as the downtrend is still deemed as dominating. EUR/USD Forecasts confirmed and the price continued its consolidation within the ranges. Trading is currently carried out at 1.2580/90 levels. Indicators are more bullish, which gives reasons to anticipate another test of 1.2620/40 resistance. Growth to 1.2800 level is also possible, but only as a correction to the downtrend. Therefore, reversal up in a medium-term is unlikely, and the bearish trend towards the next targets at 1.2240/00 level is the most probable scenario for the near future. EUR/NZD: reversal possible The EUR/NZD has fallen in a neat zig-zag down to the lower trend-line of the correction back from the February lows. This is also the level of the S1 monthly pivot and price action has formed a 2-bar reversal pattern on it. A bounce is indicated although today's activity remains muted. A break of the 1.6260 highs could act as confirmation of a new move up to 1.6340 initially, whilst a break below the 1.6050 support shelf – although a surprise – would confirm a break lower, targeting the 1.5590 lows. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 15 2012, 02:00 PM Post #26
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 15th June 2012 EUR/USD: reversal possible Eurodollar has rallied up quite strongly but has now reached a strong resistance level at around 1.2630 where it may reverse; a weekly pivot, January's lows and the fulfilment of the target from the box pattern breakout earlier in the week combine to make this a significant resistance level. Last Friday's exhaustion gap probably marks the end of the up-trend making it unlikely prices will advance above 1.2667. Its probable that a reversal pattern may form and the rate will fall first to 1.2560 and then 1.2510 at the bottom of the gap. USD/JPY Earlier forecasts, expecting another decline towards breached downtrend line (blue line), seem to be confirming. The price is testing earlier mentioned 78.80/70 support and may drop even lower, towards 78.60/50 line. Indicators have turned down, but it doesn't contradict the above mentioned assumption. Reversal to the channel's sector will give reasons to expect more serious changes in the market sentiment - i.e decline to the local minimum at 77.80. Current decline should be considered just a correction to growth, ascension may recommence anytime. GBP/USD: right-angled triangle GBP/USD is tracing out a right-angled triangle. There was a temporary break to the downside this morning but no follow-through. We are now back in the 'range' and a break out higher or lower is still possible, although a break higher is more likely given the right-angled shape. A rise above 1.5620 ought to give confirmation of a bullish break targeting 1.5670 relatively easily. A fall below 1.5450 would confirm a breakdown with a dependable target at 1.5385. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 18 2012, 01:06 PM Post #27
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 18th June 2012 EUR/USD Eurodollar gapped up at the open but has since fallen back down to below the monthly pivot at 1.2660. It is currently being supported by a trend-line. If it breaks lower then it will probably reach 1.2580 and then 1.2550 eventually. A rally back up would meet resistance from the monthly pivot at 1.2660 but could even rise higher to re-touch the highs at 1.2740. AUD/USD The pair continued its growth and tested 1.0120/50 resistance, mentioned earlier as another target. Trading is currently carried out at 1.0080/90 level. Indicators (MACD divergence) suggest further possible pullback towards lower levels. 1.0020/10 support may become a barrier for decline. If so, trading will consolidate within 1.0120/50 – 1.0020/10 range. Should the price breach 1.0020/00 support, trading will slip down to 0.9930/40. 1.0120/50 maximum breakout will be hindered by the strength of this resistance, which is even stronger, since it matches with corrected downtrend line (blue line). GBP/USD: rolling-over The GBP/USD is falling from the peak reached on Friday. It has now pulled back 38.2% of the previous move and broken below the monthly pivot. It will probably continue to fall until it reaches the top of the range at 1.5605. This is also the level of the 50% Fibonacci line adding further support. On the other hand a recover could lead to a final move back up to the level of the highs at 1.5760. EUR/JPY: box consolidation The EUR/JPY is consolidating in a range. It gapped up to the highs this morning at 100.70 but has since fallen down to fill the gap. There is the possibility of a break above the top of the box consolidation which would be confirmed by a move above 101.20, which would then target 102.60, where the 50-day MA caps further gains. A breakout lower would be confirmed by a move below 98.60 with a downside target of 97.75. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 19 2012, 02:30 PM Post #28
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 19th June 2012 EUR/USD The eurodollar pair has fallen to the bottom channel-line of the move off the June 1st lows. It has posted a hammer candlestick on the hourly chart and begun to rise. There is the possibility of another move back up to the 1.2660 resistance level where the monthly pivot is situated. Alternatively the pair could break down out of the channel, targeting 1.2440 eventually with confirmation given by a move below 1.2540. EUR/GBP: rising channel The EUR/GBP pair continues to consolidate in a rising channel. It is currently at the base of the formation and has just bounced off the lower channel- line and it is possible it will now rally back up to the range highs around 0.8150, although considerable resistance currently lies directly above price preventing more gains and equally it could pull-back to support at 0.8025. A major breakout lower would target 0.7900 and then 0.7875 eventually with confirmation given below 0.7995. GBP/USD The price attempted to breach 1.5650 support, but failed. Trading descended, but then recommenced growth. Such reversal may be a sign of a possible consolidation within 1.5720/40 – 1.5650 range, which may end up with a breakout higher and lead the price towards 1.5840 level. Indicators, however, still suggest further decline, which is quite a possibility if the price breaches 1.5560 support and then 1.5470/60 level. If it does, trading will drop back to 1.5280/70 minimums any time soon. USD/JPY The price tested breached downtrend (blue) line, which indicated its strength as a support and initiated reversal to growth. Having reached 79.30/20 line, trading is currently carried out at 78.90/80 level. Earlier forecasts, predicting correction to growth, mentioned in the previous comments, look to be confirming. Indicators suggest further ascension, which gives reasons to anticipate growth. Strong resistance levels on the way up will be found at 79.40/50 and 79.80 levels. Should the price breach these barriers, trading will rise towards 80.60, and then to 81.20/30 level. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 21 2012, 03:16 PM Post #29
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 21th June 2012 EUR/USD The eurodollar pair has fallen from the highs established after the yesterday's spike and breached the monthly pivot at 1.2660. It has formed a head & shoulders on the hourly chart and a piercing of the neckline at 1.2635 would target support at around 1.2600. The trend-line for the rally could however impede progress at 1.2620. A break below that line and clean out of the rising channel is a possibility, with a downside target at 1.2365, although a break below the key 1.2555 support level would enhance confirmation. A bullish recovery could be expected to re-touch the 1.2740 highs. AUD/USD: rising wedge The aussie has been rising in a wedge formation but it may be in the process of reversing. The pair looks overbought on the 4-hr chart and has met the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous down-move. There has been no actual follow-through to the downside yet and so it remains to be seen whether this is in fact a top. The next support level down is from an old trend-line at 1.0110, parity is another important support level. A bearish break out of the wedge could go all the way down to 0.9870. A continuation higher could be expected to find resistance at 1.0215. GBP/USD The price continued consolidating within 1.5720/40 – 1.5650 rage of local maximums. Trading attempted to rise further up, but failed and made only several short-term bounces. The pair currently resides at 1.5690/1.5700 level. Indicators are turning down, which gives reasons to expect a possible reversal down. However, the fact that SS is being overbought suggests being careful. Besides, the price now resides above the short-term trend (blue) line, which indicates strong bullish positions and gives grounds to anticipate growth to 1.5840 level. If, however, the above mentioned trend line is breached around 1.5600/1.5590 support, downtrend may recommence towards 1.5470/60 level and then to minimums at 1.5270/80. USD/JPY Earlier forecasts seem to have confirmed. The price recommenced growth, breached the first strong resistance at 79.40/50 level and is now testing another strong barrier on the way up – level 79.80/90. Indicators suggest further growth, most likely to 80.20 and then to 80.60, 81.20/30 levels, mentioned earlier. Should the price reverse down, it'll meet strong support at 79.40/50 level. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

trevor_l	Jun 25 2012, 03:05 PM Post #30
Junior Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 36 Dream Points: 230 Experience Points: 86 Joined: 11-April 12 Member No.: 268,237	Technical analysis 25th June 2012 EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair is falling and will probably continue. On Friday it made a definitive breakout out of its ascending channel on the daily chart. Taking the width of the channel as a measure the target for the breakdown is estimated at 1.2370. A nearer target would be the old lows at 1.2440 which if broken would probably see a strong sell-off as bullish resistance crumbles and a move to the 1.2290 lows possible. USD/JPY Earlier forecasts, expecting the price to halt its growth and commence a correction, seem to have confirmed. Having made another attempt to ascend, trading tested 80.60 level and pulled back down. At the moment it’s testing 80.00/05 support. Indicators are weakening their bullish readings, which can be considered as a sign for further correction. The price may slip to 79.80/70 level, which won’t change medium-term bullish picture anyway. Growth towards 81.20/30 level may commence anytime soon. 79.80/70 level breakout will give reasons to doubt of the uptrend's strength. Decline below 79.40/30 level will indicate the reversal of the bearish sentiment in the market. GBP/USD: bearish continuation expected Cable has broken down out out of its rising channel and has started to fall. There is a strong probability that it will continue lower eventually reaching a 1.5360 target, although there is a substantial level of support at 1.5450 where the bulls are expected to put up a fight. There is a chance of small pull-back in the short-term, which might see it push back up to support and resistance at 1.5605 before resuming its descent. Analysis prepared by: Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev Forex4you analysts

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