The negative sentiment has come back in play, as initial optimism from Spanish bailout and yesterday’s jump higher, were short-lived. Filling yesterday’s gap has resulted in further weakness that nearly fully retraced initial rally from 1.2434 to 1.2667. As overnight’s bounce was capped at 1.2500 barrier, also 20 day EMA, with weak hourly studies, near-term outlook remains negative. Break below 1.2440 zone, also Fib 61.8% of 1.2287.1.2667 upleg and 1.2400, 05 June low / figure support, to possibly signal an end of short-term corrective action. Only regain of 1.2550/66, upper Bollinger / yesterday’s intraday high, would ease bear pressure.
Res: 1.2506, 1.2550, 1.2566, 1.2600
Sup: 1.2449, 1.2440, 1.2434, 1.2409
Near-term price action shows the pair at the back foot, following the upside rejection at 1.5600, however, positive short-term structure off 1.5267, 01 June low, remain intact for now. Bull trend line, connecting 1.5267 and 1.5400, now offers good support and holding above here, would keep hopes of fresh strength alive. Upside break above 1.5600, key near-term barrier, is required to trigger stronger corrective action and open 1.5640 and 1.5700 next. On the downside, break below trendline and 1.5400, 08 June higher low, would risk test of very strong support at 1.5320, 05 June low / long-term bull trendline off 2009 low and 1.5300, figure support.
Res: 1.5581, 1.5600, 1.5640, 1.5700
Sup: 1.5523, 1.5500, 1.5474, 1.5450
The pair holds short-term positive tone off 77.65, 01 June low, as near-term consolidative/corrective action has so far been contained above important 79.00 support / bull trendline off 77.65 and 55 day EMA at 79.10 zone. Fresh strength is under way, looking for test of initial barrier at 79.78, last week’s high, ahead of more significant 80.00/13, figure resistance / 22 May high / Fib 38.2% of 84.17/77.65 descend. As daily 55 day MA crossed below 90 day MA at 80.40, this would be limiting the upside, in case of lift above 80.00/13 barrier. On the downside, key supports lie at 79.00 at 78.68, 200 day MA, loss of which would be bearish.
Res: 79.71, 79.81, 80.00, 80.13
Sup: 79.43, 79.16, 79.10, 79.00
Yesterday’s strong rally off 0.9477, where the pair dipped after gap-lower Monday’s opening, has nearly fully retraced Friday/Monday 0.9656/0.9477 slide, but failed to regain 0.9656 on a first attempt. While the downside remains protected at 0.9560/40 zone, hopes of fresh attempt higher exist, with clearance of initial barrier at 0.9644 and more significant 0.9656/75, required to signal bottom at 0.9477 and turn near-term focus higher. Otherwise, further retracement of 0.9366/0.9769 upleg would be likely short-term scenario.
Res: 0.9620, 0.9644, 0.9656, 0.9675
Sup: 0.9589, 0.9561, 0.9550, 0.9541