The hourly studies are running out of steam, following last Friday’s strong rally, as risk returned to play. Positive sentiment is fading after weekly gap higher opening, with gap being filled and price testing initial support and higher platform at 1.2225, also 55 day EMA. With hourly indicators started to point lower, limited upside action could be expected, as bears would gain pace on loss of 1.2225/00 supports that will re-expose near-term double bottom at 1.2170 zone. Larger picture’s outlook, however, maintains negative tone, as indicators still hold in red territory, despite some movements higher, still unable to improve the structure. Regain of 1.2290/1.2300, 07 July high / Fib 23.6% of 1.2691/1.2161 descend and 1.2330, 10 July high / 55 day EMA, required to confirm near-term double-bottom and allow for stronger recovery. Otherwise, resumption of broader downtrend through 1.2150, would be looking for test of 1.2000 zone in the short-term.
Res: 1.2243, 1.2254, 1.2270, 1.2300
Sup: 1.2225, 1.2200, 1.2161, 1.2150
The pair’s strong bounce off 1.5400 base, where near-term support was found, prevented the price form further slide, as rally tested key barrier at 1.5600, also Fib 61.8% of 1.5721/1.5392 downleg. Overextended conditions on hourly chart now see risk of corrective pullback, with indicators pointing lower and initial support at 1.5576 being cracked. Ideally, support should be found above psychological 1.5500, also close to Fib 38.2% of 1.5392/1.5592 upleg and ascending 55 day EMA, as studies on 4H chart broke above the midlines and see potential for further recovery. Break above 1.5600 is required to confirm. On the downside, potential loss of 1.5500 handle would risk return to 1.5460 and 1.5400.
Res: 1.5576, 1.5600, 1.5650, 1.5700
Sup: 1.5545, 1.5515, 1.5500, 1.5460
The near-term structure remains negative, as the price dents the lower boundary of short-term range, also 200 day MA at 79.00. Steady descend, following the latest upside rejection at 80.00 and indicators in the negative territory on lower and larger timeframes, see risk of clear break below the range, to establish fresh near-term direction and expose initial supports at 78.60 and 78.00. Descending 20 day EMA at 79.28, maintains near-term downtrend, while only break above 79.50, range’s midpoint and 55 day EMA, would delay bears.
Res: 79.12, 79.28, 79.38, 79.50
Sup: 78.95, 78.80, 78.60, 78.00
Overall bulls remain in play, as the pair undergoes corrective action, on overbought 4h chart conditions. Initial support at 0.9800 zone, so far contains dips, however, descending indicators on 4h chart do not rule out further correction, with reversal ideally seen at /above 0.9740 higher platform and ascending 55 day EMA. Daily structure remains bullish, with break above the latest peak at 0.9871 to open 0.9900 and 0.9950, Fib 61.8% of larger 1.1730/0.7067 descend.
Res: 0.9850, 0.9868, 0.9871, 0.9900
Sup: 0.9807, 0.9784, 0.9765, 0.9736