Myfxpedia : Daily Signals And Strategies |
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Amelia |
Nov 22 2012, 04:00 PM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Today analysis:
OK, Xmas is only a month away which most FX traders will shy away as there will be lack of activities and widen spread on most of the pairs. Today is a Thanks Giving day in the US and so do not expect lot of movement during US sessions. Yesterday was truly a news driven day, as early in the Asian session we have news from Euro that German candidate in the Euro Group oppose the Greece bailout that is they failed to agree on Greece debt reduction package. We immediately see the Euro tanks. Then about an hour later Managing Director Christine Largarde of the IMF came out and soothing the markets with announcement � We made some good work and we�re closing the gap, but we are not quite there yet, so it�s progress but we have to do a bit more�. That was enough for the hopeful jumped in, with anticipation of agreement will soon be reach. Another news also prompted the rally was the Cease fire between Israel and Hamas group and then came the German Chancellor commented on lower interest rates and expanding Financial Stability Fund for which could be the answer for the Greece to be able to gets its next round of bailout funds. These news of hope was enough for the depressed market to rally yesterday. Words of caution: be careful of this relief rally, it could be just a dead cat bounces as there isn�t any concrete problem solve so far and then the fiscal cliff is still hanging in the air which could come back to have its second bites. The way I see it is that it will resume the downtrend to at least retest previous low to actually establish that is the low and then we will have a meaningful rally to the upside.
Impact News today:
03:00 am (NY) EUR � French Manufacture PMI; All day Economic Summit; Spanish 10 yr Bond Auction 08:30 am (NY) CAD � Core Retail Sales
Technical analysis:
We are currently hold Long GBPUSD; Short GBPJPY. As for the pair GBPJPY, I had amended the stop to a maximum of 3 % risk. I had have said before such that the strategy and Risk Management that I am using is that we are trading prices that is at extreme in a short space of times and the initial Risk Management is of 0.5% with a leeway of extended up to 3%. So I advise you all doing the same if you follow my signals. I had said yesterday this pair and most of the Yen cross pairs are currently in a strong uptrend but because of the overshoot in a short space of time there will be a good correction on the pair before resuming the uptrend. Now, once the high is being firm we will then scale down our stop but in the mean time we have to avoid being hunted that �Big Boys� using the hype to stop raid on us small fishes. From yesterday update, I mentioned that this pair historically had twice doing the straight 7 days run and move from Band to Band (Bollinger Band). Well, in this latest run up, today would mark the 7th days and prices has now in extreme overbought and close to Major Resistance and with yesterday overshoot bullish candle that ran out of the Bollinger Band suggested of capitalisation (in a down run I call it exhaustion). So, today is the 7th day for this pair on this Band to Band move I will look forward to either a small range day or will be the start of a down move of at least 150 to 200 hundred pips or at least to the 20MA whichever come first. Also, I will look into H1 and look for Divergence created on H1 and add on another position on this Pair. Which would then giving 3 time frames of Overbought and negative divergences on H4 and H1. Charts below. GBPJPY � Daily
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Replies(1 - 9)
Amelia |
Nov 23 2012, 10:01 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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23 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Happy Thanks Giving to all, especially to anyone of you living in the US. As the people in the US is having a Thanks Giving day and so we probably will have another quite day during the NY session again as most Institutions only work half day and/or head for the long weekend. The notable movements in the currency market yesterday was the Euro which as I said yesterday, Traders are putting their hope on the Euro Groups Summit sorting out aid for Greece. As for the Yen which also put on the lowest level since last April and that was due to speculation that the upcoming election in Japan will be won by the opposition for which the have pledge to have unlimited monetary stimulus. Anyway, I think traders is running too far ahead and a pullback is a start to take effect.
Impact News today:
04:00 am (NY) EUR � German Business Climate; All day Economic Summit 08:30 am (NY) CAD � Core CPI.
Technical analysis:
We are still Holding Long GBPUSD and Short GBPJPY. Follow up from yesterday update on GBPJPY. We now had 7 days straight up move. And with yesterday candle which close with a long bearish tail candle suggesting of possible reversal is taking place. In a strong trend, a reversal or consolidation is usually takes only 2 or 3 days before resuming the trend. This pair is obviously has been in a strong uptrend over the last 7 days so We will only look for a pullback, probably, to a retest of the breakout of the Channel. See chart below. GBPJPY � Daily.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Nov 26 2012, 03:47 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +138.0
26 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Last week of the month everyone and there are plenty of speculations, hopes and nerve wrecking in the world of forex or at least, in particular, the currencies traders. So, buckle up traders, we are in for more volatility as fiscal cliff is getting closer and closer while volumes trade is getting less and less by the day approaching Xmas. On top of fiscal cliff we also have the debt crisis in Euro group where traders are now clinches on hope Greek bailout funds. Currently they have not unanimously agreed to the condition for the bailout, although they are working on it and any obstacle from one of its member will send the Euro south in a blink of an eye. Add on the Euro uncertainty we also have Spain political risk will spook the market this week if the polls on the weekend actually gave the Union Party the approval we would then probably see Spain having a referendum on Independence in the region of Catalonia. With Catalonia holding 20% of Spain GDP this could provide Prime Minister of Spain a big headache and the Euro into a tail spin again. Anyway, observing from last Friday market behaviour, we witnessed a risk off day as people are piling in to buy into oversold shares as we saw the indices put up a healthy rally on light volumes. Noted also, last Friday the Us market only traded for � days and therefore, last Friday rally was on low volumes which to me is of insignificant and could potentially spell a Dead Cat Bounce. It was an irrational market rally that help bolster the risk currencies and a rally that is totally in an inverse relation to the fundamentals. As we can see from the news release regarding the breakdown of Euro group summit after 2 days meeting and have to call it off and reschedule for sometimes next year. Yet, market and risk currencies still rally hard. Mind boggling. Lastly, I just want to remind traders that we are approaching Xmas period and market can move very irrational due to low volumes trade and so a trade with tight stop can easily being taken out. Do not get stuck in the whip saw. Trade with same risk parameter but use wider stop with small lot size.
Impact News today: None
Trading Positions:
Last Friday our Short sell pending on EURJPY and AUDUSD triggered and I would like to put up chart on EURJPY for you today showing you of the similarity of prices movement of this pair back in mid January 2012. It has full on similar characteristic of prices movement. See chart below. EURJPY � Daily
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
This post has been edited by Amelia: Nov 26 2012, 03:51 AM
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Amelia |
Nov 27 2012, 04:50 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary
Number of Trades: 22 Winning Trades: 19 Losing Trades: 3 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +800.3
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +126.1
27 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
There were no kick to prices in the currency market as there were little of fundamental news yesterday to actually drive the market, whichever way you look at it.
Traders were pinning hope on the positive outcome of the Euro group meeting for bailout funds. As I type we just have an announcement of the Euro Groups that the deal is done and they now have a full committee agreement to provide Greece the funding. Citing from the last paragraph of the Statement released which they now schedule to release the funds by 13th of December, but only �subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece�....ah I just hate the �but� thing.
Funnily enough after the new announcements of committee agreement, the Euro seems to be in a stalemate situation. Prices not shooting to the upside as expected, it�s not even move...damn. This ring true to the slogan �buy rumour � sell the fact�.
In the US we are going to have the resuming of talks of Democrats and the Republicans on the fiscal cliff and I expect a lot more head wind this time round as compare to the preliminary get together some 10 days ago. Both sides of politics are currently using technology to rally public support on the issue. Anyway, as the negotiation is going on between the 2 political parties traders will look for the outcome like hawk and this will certainly create volatility in the market. So, watch out traders.
Impact News today: 04:30 am (NY) GBP � GDP 08:30 am (NY) USD � Core Durable Goods 10:00 am (NY) USD � Consumer Confidence.
Trading Positions:
EURJPY � Daily
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Nov 28 2012, 03:47 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary:
Number of Trades: 23 Winning Trades: 20 Losing Trades: 3 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +840.3
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +40.0
28 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The resuming of negotiation between the Democrats and the Republicans on fiscal cliff has once again trigger the nerves of traders as seen overnight during NY session. Despite the good news Core Durable Goods Order and a jump in Consumer Confidence in the US the market dropped significantly on comments of Senator Harry Reid which stated that the talks have made �little progress�. Furthermore, there were mud throwing at each other as Senator Mitch McConnell ripped into President Obama for not just promoting his tax agenda through tech but also planning to hit the road to rally support. In the view of traders this negotiations is truly going nowhere for the time being and it seemed as though the law makers were busy having sling shots at each other instead of negotiations to come up with a compromise on both side to avoid the cliff. Oh well, just as frustrated as it seems, let us all say.....there�s the cliff � Jump. (Joking). The market dropped last night and so was the risk currencies, namely the AUDUSD which dropped � cents (50pips) from yesterday high on the negative comments. Talk about the AUDUSD that currently is the hottest currency around due to higher interest rate which then attract traders to bank or buy into AUDUSD using Carry Trade (borrowing money from other country with low interest rate and deposit/convert into currency that pay higher interest, for example: borrowing Yen at almost 0% interest and bank in AUDUSD that own 3.25% interest). Although the Aussie dollars being enjoying the stellar run over the past decade, it is, in my personal opinion is not sustainable for the Australian economy. Surely, the Aussie economy cannot be immune from the global melt down and currently we are seeing global competition in trades, as evident with many countries weakening their currencies in order to revive their economy through exports (A notable country that we have seen doing over and over again is Japan and for Christ sake, they even talks about currency assassination (Yen) with unlimited QE). So, what�s good for Australia if you cannot export your goods due to high Aussie dollars and yet with higher dollars will also lure away many of tourists coming into Australia and so tourism industry will certainly take a big hit also if the Australian Government, namely the RBA, not doing about it. Now, going into December, next Tuesday we will have the RBA meeting on Rate decision. Last month they decided to keep rates steady at 3.25% and that give a big boost to the Aussie dollars. So, will they cut interest rate this time round just to give tax payers a little relief to enjoy Xmas? Well, I stick my neck to say they will cut interest rate this time round. Note also that the next RBA meeting after December meeting will be schedule on the 1st Tuesday of February. There�s no board meeting in January.
Impact News today: 10:00 am (NY) USD � New Home Sales 12:15 pm (NY) CHF � SNB Chairman Speaks 07:00 pm (NY) NZD � Business Confidence
Trading Positions:
Yesterday trade EURUSD
We also miss out on our second Pending Sell Limit on AUDUSD by about 5 pips. Chart below.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Nov 29 2012, 03:03 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary:
Number of Trades: 25 Winning Trades: 22 Losing Trades: 3 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +885.6
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +45.3
29 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Traders are currently looking for, listen out to any positive spins from the authorities just to move the market and ignoring the fundamental truth of the economy. This was shown from prices action yesterday. During the European session, majority of risk currencies was under downward pressure and this downward pressure carried on into the early US session. We saw commodity such as Gold, Silver and Oil taking a nose dive. Then came the New Home Sales release in the US which fell significantly, way below analyst estimate. But then, by about 10:30 NY times, Republican Senator Boehmer came out saying that he is optimistic that a deal with President Obama can be reached. Wow, next thing you know was like a rocket being stuck under the risk currency, namely the Aussie, the Pound and the Euro.... Senator Boehmer, what a bummer. On the other side of the continent, Fitch rating agency also came out to warn France of its triple A rating status could be downgrade early next year if the fail to work on its debt reduction but this does not deter traders from the optimism view of Senator Boehmer which saw shares in European closing mixed, paring losses earlier in the day. On a final note , just be careful with this hype in hope of rally. It could prove to be short live and let me tell you the reason for my arguments: Ok, suppose we have the fiscal cliff avoided but then the implementation cannot happen overnight and so the due process will take sometimes to actually implemented. Also, as President Obama have been advocated of taxing the rich and so will the riches, the Investment Funds will have to try to avoid being tax more when a new fiscal policy kicking in? What I am saying is they will use this hype and push the market along, watching it rally and then when they smell of fishy policy that�s going hurt their bottom line about to be enforce, surely, they will sell out their holdings, stocks, options what have you, just to avoid from paying higher tax. Off course, this rally could also prove to be a genuine rally but I just can�t help being a contrarian and believe me this sort of contrarian thinking have many times save me from banging my head to the wall.
Impact News today: 05:30 am (NY) GBP � King Speaks 08:30 am (NY) USD - Prelim GDP; Unemployment Claims 10:00 am (NY) USD � Pending Home Sales.
Trading Positions:
We are now only 2 days away from end of November and with a considerable good pips gain for the month, although not as spectacular as last month where we gained 1432 pips but we are not far from it. Yesterday I added on another small short position on AUDUSD as I do not believe this rally is genuine when we have commodity being smash across the board and the Aussie economy is the resources base and so when the technical prices rally that is not in sync with the fundamentals I stand to chose the fundamental as reality will eventually come back and bite a big chunk out of the Aussie. Also, next week, Tuesday, we will have the RBA decision on Interest Rates. You know my thought on it. We also traded EURJPY yesterday for a small gain during Asian sessions. Below is the chart of EURJPY with explanations of to why I took the trade. EURJPY - H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Nov 30 2012, 02:18 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary: Number of Trades: 25 Winning Trades: 22 Losing Trades: 3 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +885.6
30 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Last day of trading for the month folks an spin doctors on the fiscal cliff issue aren�t making it any easy to sooth the already trouble markets. The day before we had optimisms on both sides of politics then, guess what? The very next day (yesterday) they are throwing mud at each other, accusing each other for not putting up any workable solutions and further adding to the contradiction of what he said the day before, Senator Boehmer this time round saying �there is no substantive progress in two weeks of talks�. So, the day before we had him being optimistic about the deal could be reach and yesterday we had no real progress so far. Gosh, make up your mind Senator. Anyway, let leave the Senators alone to collect their thoughts and focus on our trades. Yesterday, we have a mixed bag of prices movement most of the risk currencies initially tank after the comments from the policy makers in the US but soon recovered to actually put on a modest gain. The only risk currency that bucked the trend and went south all the way through out NY session was the Aussie dollars......surprise, surprise. Well, if you did read my update yesterday there should be no surprise in that as we all know that when we have an inverse relationship between fundamentals and technical, the fundamentals will eventually prevail. From yesterday prices movement of the Euro continent, namely Euro and the Pound, that were bullish I can only fathom it was the case of good news from the Italian Bond Auction which came in as the lowest borrowing cost for Italy in the last 18 months and thus, giving a boost to the Euro. While in the UK the consumer confidence also lift unexpectedly and that reflect through the GBPUSD pair which pushed higher.
Impact News today:
03:00 am (NY) EUR � ECB President Draghi Speaks 08:30 am (NY) CAD � GDP 08:00 pm (NY) CNY - Manufacturing
Trading Positions:
Yesterday I gave a brief talk about the AUDUSD, about the Inverse relation between fundamental and technical. It seems that with yesterday prices action the fundamental has catch up. From the chart below you will see that the pair is now under pressure of moving lower but expect high level of support at around 1.0350/80. On the fundamental side for this pair I would like to bring your attention to the price action of this pair. As we seen on the chart this run down from yesterday could be the case that traders are starting to pricing in the upcoming Tuesday Interest Rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia and as I have said in many updates this month, I still hold that belief, that Rate will be cut in December, by how far? I have no idea but would opt for 25 basis point (0.25%) and if they decided to go for 50 basis point to give Australian an early Xmas then traders, watch out for parity in AUDUSD. AUDUSD � Daily.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Dec 3 2012, 04:19 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary:
Number of Trades: 27 Winning Trades: 24 Losing Trades: 3 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +938.8
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +53.2
03 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
First day of the month and last month of the year folks and before I go any further I just want to add words of caution regarding trading for this month.
Since this is the biggest festive season month around the world and many of institutions, banks are winding up for the year as we head for Xmas and New Year. As we approaching Xmas the trade volumes will be dropped significantly and trading condition will be very erratic. It is therefore not to trade with guts feel and not being trigger happy as those sort of behaviours will sucks up your trading capitals so quickly before you know it. The erratics that I am talking about is the jumpy behaviour of prices movement and the spreads that can be so wide that you might have not seen before that can trigger your stop and take you out of the trade even the actual prices have never been there. So, please trade with caution and if you ever feel the need to trade, my advice is � better not to trade at all and if you have to have a pulse on the market then it is better to trade with small lot size and widen your stop but keep it within your risk parameter. Best of all � Stop Trading a week before Xmas and enjoy Xmas, New Year with your love ones and come back on the 2nd week of January when markets fully functions. Remember, market is always there for you to trade so only trade when the market condition is ready and you are feeling good and ready.
Now let see what do we have in store for the market over the coming days?
In the US, Jobs reports, the Non-Farm Payrolls and the Fiscal Cliff negotiations will be of focus and prices of USD be certainly be dominated by those news. Out of all those sensitive news the fiscal cliff negotiations will certainly play a key part in day to day news of likely outcome. So far, the negotiations has go nowhere but traders/investors alike will look out for with much anticipation of all to speculate on prices. While in Europe, the ongoing saga of Greece debts, bailout funds will not going away anytime soon. Although we had agreement of bailout fund to Greece from the European members, it is not certain until Greece actually being hand out with the funds.
In Asia, Japan is getting closer to have its crucial election and it seems riskier to actually short the Yen pairs as of now from the survey they do expect the opposition to take over the reign and they, opposition, have many times put forward of their intention to assassinate the Yen with unlimited QE.
In Australia, in the early Asia trading session we had have dismal Retail Sales, horrible jobs ads and the AUDUSD tank 33 pips on the news in an hour and traded below 1.0400. The sinking would have been worse if traders were not expect of better Manufacturing figure to come out of China in the next hour. As expected, the Manufacturing figure came out of China painting a much improve condition in the Chinese economy, the AUDUSD quickly change course and at time of writing (typing) the prices of AUDUSD traded at 1.0418.
In my personal opinion, and I have many time saying it over the last week or two, I tend to the view of RBA to lower Interest Rate tomorrow and today from the release of Retail Sales and Jobs ads has reinforce my view. Ah well, We just have to wait and see.
Impact News today:
04:30 am (NY) GBP � Manufacturing PMI 10:00 am (NY) USD � Manufacturing PMI 07:30 pm (NY) AUD � Building Approvals 10:30 pm (NY) AUD � Cash Rate; RBA Rate Statement.
Trading Positions:
Last Friday, in the early London session we exited our positions in AUDUSD for nice profit. We then put in a pending sell order as we expected prices to retrace before resume the down trend. We were right, prices did retrace and resume the downtrend but, guess what? We missed it by a hair of a margin. Our pending sell order stands @ 1.0448 and prices went up to 1.04466. If any of you were at the terminal and took on the trade. Well done.
I now have 3 orders in place for this pair. From price action this morning and with momentum being oversold on H1 I look for prices to retraces toward the MA20 on H4 before resume the downtrend. I might consider to lower my entry number 1 if I see the downward pressure is strong. Attach are daily and H4 and H1 charts. Enjoy.
AUDUSD Daily
AUDUSD H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Dec 4 2012, 03:12 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary : Number of Trades: 2 Winning Trades: 1 Losing Trades: 1 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3
04 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The Euro suddenly came back to life and kicking hard yesterday breaking above the psychological barrier of 1.30. Is this rally genuine? So let dissect into yesterday news and see what the reason behind the rally:
Firstly, we have the Greece government came out offered to buy back Bonds with expiration on the offer by 7th December. Although the offer of buy-back is somewhat about 60% haircut to the original Bond rate and yet the market rally due to better than market expectation. Oh, am I missing something? Is it the haircut to the initial Bond rate and the market love it....geez, Mr. Market must have expecting of getting nothing out of Greece. For that I just can�t wait to see the next round of Greece Bond auction, just wondering any gutsy investor(s) out there would buy into Greece Bond in the future? Ah, I forgot, maybe the European Central Bank (ECB) would smilingly put up both hands.
Next, came Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel opens up the can of worm, saying that Germany may ultimately accept a write off on Greek debt. Wow, what an astute investor decision that is, I cannot think of any sound investor would even contemplating of thinking about lending money to a debt ridden country or person and then announcing of probable writing off in near future. This surely can only be done by politicians since it�s not their hard earn dollars, ultimately, it�s tax payers money that they are dealing with. I just am gobsmack.
Finally, we have Spain coming out asking the ECB to bailout their banks and the euro rally some more..hahahaha. Note, Spain only request for bailout on their distress banks and not sovereign bailout. I guessed if it was actually the sovereign bailout request was make the euro would rally much harder. Damn, this is truly confusing for my cumquat little brain and so I thought...if one day Italy and then France came out requesting for bailout then the euro will probably shoot over the roof and out into the un-chart territory. Damn, that must be exciting.
Any, it just too hard to dissect into this awkward behaviour for my little cumquat brain and so we leave it there. I suppose the only thing we can do is to manage our trades and be patience until opportunity arrived and in the mean time we just have to sooth ourselves such that, the market can be irrational at time and the irrationality can be much longer than one�s pocket can bear.
At time of writing we are now only 2 � hrs away from the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate decision and I guess you all know my view on this as I have said it so many times in my daily updates. The only cloud that I can see that would make the RBA members to think twice in dropping rate was the much improve China Manufacturing report that released yesterday. Well, we just have to wait and see. It�s either our short positions in AUDUSD and AUDNZD will turn into candy or lemons, we will know in about 3 hrs time.
Impact News today:
03:00 am (NY) EUR � Spanish Unemployment Change 04:30 am (NY) GBP � Construction PMI 09:00 am (NY) CAD � BOC Rate Statement; Overnight Rate 07:30 pm (NY) AUD � GDP
Trading Positions:
AUDUSD � H4. This pair is currently being under short term downward pressure and trades within the downward channel. We took an initial short position yesterday.
AUDNZD �Daily. This pair has been in a major downtrend since November 2011. It reached the low 1.2370 in last October 2012. This low has not been retested to confirm actual low. Over the last 2 weeks it has showing sign of weakness and upon break the upchannel to the downside will ultimately seeing the pair retesting the last low.
EURCAD � H4. Yesterday we took an early entry (although, we already have a higher pending sell order) due to initial price behaviour at the 1st resistance (eclipse). Unfortunately, with much �excited� news came out of the Euro zone the prices continued its upward momentum and also triggered our initial Pending Sell limit that has been set sometimes last week. From chart below, you can see that prices is well extended on the 4 hr chart with momentum being overbought as well as showing Negative Divergences on H4 and H1. We will look initially for price to pull back to the 3rd degree uptrend line as target 1.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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Amelia |
Dec 5 2012, 03:24 AM
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Junior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 82
Dream Points: 460
Experience Points: 132
Joined: 22-November 12
Member No.: 334,198
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Monthly Summary: Number of Trades: 2 Winning Trades: 1 Losing Trades: 1 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3
05 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Well, I was right all along for the last 3 weeks or so saying the RBA will cut Rate in December but then the Cut did not far enough to even cut through the tofu and that reflect in the rise of the AUD after the new released. The decision to cut rate was a right decision but it just a bit too late and not deep enough for the Australians to actually go out spending for Xmas and New Year. I suspect the RBA is playing the game of wait and see approach. Just as I have said yesterday there was sign of recovery in China on better than expect Manufacturing report and so the RBA keep their head in the sand, blocking their ears from the struggling average Australians as well as suffering businesses that has been calling out to Government to do more to save businesses to stay in Australia.
This early Asian session when listening to the Radio 2GB and the interview of Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan and when he said that the Australian economy is sound and strong and is resilient to the world economies turmoil I could not believe it. Where in the world is the Treasurer live in? He must be living in Wayne World I supposed. Dear Mr. Wayne Swan, Please get down to earth, particularly Australia, and see the battlers, the companies that is going out of businesses. Within this year we had have Darrell Lea Chocolates, an 87 years old company has to call in Administrations, then Colorado retailers and last week we had Rosella, an Australian icon of about 130 years old going into receiverships. And what about mining companies that has to shut down mines because it�s no longer economical to dig up. Anyway, final word, Get away from your Wayne World and meet the reality hey.
As I type, we just have the Aussie GDP figure came out that is 0.5%, that is below forecast. So far this week, news from Australia is showing cracks in the Aussie economy. Early in the week we had a drop in Retail Sales; big dropped in Building Approvals, a Rate cut and now less than expected GDP. Let see what tomorrow during Asian session will bring with the Australian Unemployment Rate.
In Europe, the pound retreats a little after the fall in Construction PMI news while the Euro charging on from the optimism of Greece quick fix.....I must be dreaming.
In the United State of A. The main concern and look out for any beats is the Fiscal Cliff negotiation between Democrats and Republicans � so far, it�s go nowhere.
Impact News today:
04:30 am (NY) GBP � GDP Service PMI 07:30 am (NY) GBP � Autumn Forecast Statement 08:15 am (NY) USD � ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 10:00 am (NY) USD � Non-Manufacture PMI 03:00 pm (NY) NZD � Official Cash Rate 07:30 pm (NY) AUD � Employment Change; Unemployment
Trading Positions:
Today I would like to put again the Daily chart on AUDUSD. See explanations on chart.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author�s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
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