The YEN is weak we all know that and it is interesting how people see things.
First of all I checked out what the worriers and over analytical thought traders think.
"Retail short positions have actually fallen since last week. The weekly RSI is at its most over bought in 15 years."
Others are saying things like "our experts say that an unwind of USDJPY long positions is extremely high". That means they aren't' trading it they are just talking about it.
Let me tell you price action will determine when this finishes not what a retail trader thinks or what the RSI does or an analyst thinks.
Remember last year at this time when Mystic Meg and all those others said the Dow would collapse based on their belief but the price action was so strong it ran for 3 months straight up!
The YEN is a momentum play and that's why we are on it.
If it dies at the highs and drops like a stone then yes I'll play that as well. If the move does continue then knowing which pair to be on is key. The same thing will happen if it collapses. If that happens we'll clean up on the way down! In fact we'll make profits ts twice as fast then.
The thing we need to focus on is how strong is the US dollar right now?
In the coming month if that continues to show strength and the Yen shows weakness then that will be the pair to be on.
So checking out the Dollar index could give us a clue. Let's take a look.
The Dollar index is finding support at a key fib level and has had a big spurt this week. In 2 previous times this spurt has led to strong 4 week moves as shown by the ellipses.
Is this the start of another 4 week spurt? If it is then will the USDJPY be the best play for going long?
See what you think from the chart.
By the way be sensible stay with this move but keep one very close eye using price action to spot the time when yes, it does finish. Let the system call it.