The Euro ended the second consecutive week in red, as reversal from fresh high at 1.3831 retraced 50% of entire 1.2754/1.3831 rally, on a dip to 1.3294. The pair was additionally pressured by Fed’s decision that was followed by ECB’s rate cut and kept the negative sentiment in play. The price consolidates above fresh low at 1.3294, following Thursday/Friday’s bumpy ride, where the price oscillated between 1.3294 and 1.3450. Fresh weakness, seen last Friday, stayed above weekly low, with price consolidating above 1.33 handle. Near-term technicals remain bearish and see risk of further downside, as daily indicators slid into negative territory. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with current range top at 1.3450, also previous consolidation floor of 04/05 / 11, expected to limit the upside. Only break above 1.3550, 06/11 lower top and near 50% of 1.3831/1.3294, would neutralize bears. On the downside, break below 1.3294 would open 1.3215, 200DMA and 1.3103, 06/09 higher low in extension.
Res: 1.3387; 1.3410; 1.3448; 1.3500
Sup: 1.3343; 1.3316; 1.3293; 1.3275
Near-term price action remains under pressure, as last week’s recovery rally from 1.59 base, stalled at 1.6120, also 61.8% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, with subsequent weakness, following the second unsuccessful attempt higher. The price hovers around 1.6000 zone, where weekly close occurred and daily cloud top offers temporary support, with 4-hour indicators breaking into negative territory and seeing risk of fresh attempt towards very strong 1.5900 base. Negative hourly studies support the notion. On the larger picture, 5-week ranges remains intact and only break of either side would define fresh direction. Negatively aligned daily technicals keep the downside pressured, as loss of 1.59 base will also confirm double-top formation.
Res: 1.6029; 1.6057; 1.6100; 1.6116
Sup: 1.6000; 1.5955; 1.5940; 1.5900
The price returned to strength and regained 99.00, following last week’s sharp fall from 99.39 to 97.61. Near-term technicals are positive, however, consolidation under 99.21 peak and session high, is seen on overbought hourly conditions. Immediate support at 98.90, 20DMA, holds for now, with further easing to be contained above 98.50, 20/55DMA, to keep the structure intact. Break above 99.39 is required to resume larger bulls off 96.93 and expose 99.65 and psychological 100.00 barrier. Conversely, loss of 98.50 handle, also 50% of 99.39/97.91 fall, would weaken near-term structure and risk fresh weakness towards higher platform at 98 zone.
Res: 99.21; 99.39; 99.65; 100.00
Sup: 98.90; 98.70; 98.50; 98.00
The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, broke below 0.9420/00 support zone. The price dipped to 0.9351 so far, aiming towards 0.9323, 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 rally and 0.9300, psychological support. Negative near-term studies support the notion, however, overextended conditions suggest that fresh weakness would be preceded by consolidative/corrective phase. Previous supports at 0.9400, reinforced by 20DMA and 0.9420, also 55DMA, act as initial barriers, with lower platform at 0.9470, expected to limit the upside and keep bearish structure intact.
Res: 0.9400; 0.9420; 0.9470; 0.9508
Sup: 0.9388; 0.9350; 0.9323; 0.9300