The Euro holds its near-term neutral tone, trading within 1.37/1.38, on week range, ahead of today’s Fed’s decision. The pair regained levels above range’s midpoint after yesterday’s dip that was contained at 1.3720, keeping 1.37 base out of reach for now. Positively aligned hourly technicals keep the upper range boundary in focus, as 4-hour price action remains supported by rising 55DMA and gaining fresh bullish momentum. Clear break above 1.38 barrier to open key hurdle and near-term target at 1.3831, year-to-date high, above which to confirm completion of two-month corrective phase and resume larger bulls towards immediate targets at 1.3847/71, Fibonacci 138.2% / 161.8% projection and psychological 1.3900 barrier in extension. Negative scenario requires loss of 1.37 handle to trigger fresh bears and start corrective phase, with solid support seen at 1.3620, 29/11 previous peak and bull-trendline, drawn off 1.3294, 07/11 low.
Res: 1.3781; 1.3797; 1.3809; 1.3831
Sup: 1.3760; 1.3740; 1.3720; 1.3708
Cable remains at the back foot, as fresh extension of the pullback from 1.6466 broke below 1.6260, previous range tops, putting pressure at psychological 1.6200 support. Overall negative tone keeps the downside favored, with more significant 1.6160, 50% retracement of 1.5853/1.6466 upleg / daily 55DMA, expected to come in focus, once 1.6200 handle is lost. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 1.6350, 16/12 lower top and 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover, to keep bears intact. Any extension above here would put bears on hold and signal stronger recovery, with solid barriers at 1.6400/20.
Res: 1.6335; 1.6348; 1.6369; 1.6400
Sup: 1.6261; 1.6212; 1.6200; 1.6160
The pair extends its corrective pullback from 103.91, 13/12 peak, cracking initial support at 102.63, also bull-trendline off 101.60, on extension to 102.19, over 76.4% retracement of 102.15/103.91 upleg. Subsequent bounce, so far limited at 103 barrier, needs to clear 103.20, 50% retracement of 103.91/102.49 downleg, to sideline near-term bears and shift focus higher. Otherwise downside risk towards 102.15 and more significant 101.60 higher low, would remain in play.
Res: 103.14; 103.27; 103.70; 103.91
Sup: 102.49; 102.15; 102.00; 101.60
The pair remains under pressure and finally cracked key support at 0.8891, 30/08 low, to fully retrace 0.8891/0.9755 bull-phase. With near-term technicals holding firm bearish tone, further downside is seen favored, as the price looks for test of another key level and year-to-date low at 0.8846, posted on 05/08/2013. Consolidative action is expected to precede fresh weakness, with immediate barriers laying at 0.8968, previous consolidation ceiling and 0.9000, psychological barrier / 04/05 / 12 lows. Any bounce higher should be ideally capped at 0.91 zone, where bearish 20/55DMA’s crossover stands. Only clearance of 0.9165, lower platform and breakpoint, would signal stronger recovery.
Res: 0.8927; 0.8968; 0.9000; 0.9065
Sup: 0.8881; 0.8846; 0.8800; 0.8770