 Fundamental And Technical Analysis From "tradefort" Company. |
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Replies(1 - 9)
| ValdisTF |
 May 18 2014, 09:52 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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19.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
There was enough volatility for Forex at the end of the last week. The EUR/USD ended the trading day at the opening level despite the weak Eurozone macroeconomic data. The GDP release on Q1 came out worse than the median prognosis; the final figure was 0.2 %, indicating the region structural problems. Among the leading economies of the euro area only in Germany the data were better than the median rate prognosis while the Italian economy went all into the negative region by 0.1%.
The reduced euro/pound cross supported moderate demand for GBP/USD during the Friday. The Eurozone negative macroeconomic statistics cheered "bears" to open short positions in the cross-course. The "bulls" in the GBP/USD went hunting amid the short-term oversold against the British pound against the U.S. dollar.
Japan's GDP report for the 1st quarter pleased investors with strong data - the final figure was 1.5 % qoq that is better on 0.5% than consensus prognosis. The low sales tax helped the Japan economy in the first three months of this year, triggering a high consumer activity. The positive report supported the moderate demand for the yen in Asian trading session. Do not forget about the stock exchanges trading dynamics. Investors take profits on world markets shares after prolonged growth, which sparked a price drop wave. The dollar/yen lost 0.3 %.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The euro fell at the end of the week, as it was pressed by regular ECB comments which indicated the possible easing in the near future. The ECB Vice President V. Constancio, speaking in Berlin, said, "If necessary, we are ready to act quickly and do not exclude the further easing possibility" which in couple with the inflation data weakness presented at the final assessment can become a serious psychological factor provoking euro selling.
The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span.
The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative area.
Trading recommendations
The deep support level 1.3680 retest and rising trend line were followed by a pull back and closing the daily candle above the elevation data.
The bounce from 1.3700 rising trend line will allow buers to raise the price to 1.3800.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British pound was influenced by the general market sentiment and also like the other majors, at first fell against the dollar, and then strengthened. The pound fixed a slight increase as a session result that can be attributed to greater market confidence in sterling amid the Britain stable economic growth. Britain did not publish any important release for the sterling sentiment, so the pound will be influenced by the external events again, first of all happening in the United States, cause the most interesting news package was getting ready there.
The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span.
The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The prolonged consolidation development in 1.6755 - 1.6730 is more likely to provide a good signal to the price bounce up.
The bounce potential targets will be the mark 1.6900, this month high 1.6970 retest.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The Japanese currency had reduced against the dollar at first, closed yesterday's session with a convincing "profit". The support for the dollar/yen, which took place for a short time amid the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda�s speech, expressing disagreement with the opinion that the further monetary policy easing possibility is limited, changes under the pressure the "Treasuries " impressive rising for the third consecutive day.
The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.
The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The 101.35 mark failed test signals that we expect the consolidation formation with the further price bounce up.
The potential targets bounce will be two resistance levels located at 102.25 and 102.65.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The franc stabilized after rising amid the dollar�s general weakening against major currencies. The dollar has lost its achievements against the euro after the unexpectedly weak United States industrial production data publication.
The selling was intensified after it became aware the U.S. unexpected April industrial production drop by 0.6 % against the expected growth of 0.1%.
Earlier it was reported that the U.S. consumer price index in April was 2.0 % vs. 2.0 % and 1.5 % in March. Core CPI in April was 1.8 % vs. 1.7 %.
The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
It is advised to consider long positions. The first target - 0.8982. When the price consolidates above the first target it might go to 0.9091.
The official website of the company: TradeFort
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| ValdisTF |
May 19 2014, 09:24 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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20.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The major pairs completed the trading in narrow ranges. The EUR/USD despite the "bull" predominance consolidated near the 37 figure. The USA macroeconomic statistics showed a mixed trend. Housing market indicators - the issued building permits volume and the Housing Starts number came out better than the median forecast which is positive for many American economy sectors. At the same time, the report from the Michigan's Institute on the May consumer confidence index disappointed investors for a total value amounted to 81.8 instead of consensus-forecast 84.1.
The demand for the GBP/USD was noted due to the lower euro/pound cross-course. The current levels look attractive for the long positions formation and we can expect some activity from speculators. After the Michigan Institute consumer confidence weak report the pressure on the greenback was strengthened.
The USD/JPY traded in a narrow flat throughout the day. The moderate demand in global stock markets could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions. The published macroeconomic indicators from the United States also did not contribute to the U.S. dollar demand against the Japanese yen. The consumer confidence index decrease from the Michigan Institute indicates a possible personal consumption decrease in May which is negative for economic growth rates.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
Attitude towards the euro remained �bearish�. However, the political moments became the "drivers" for the single currency sales showing an increase in "pigeon" sentiment among those who influence the EU main bank monetary trend. The economic statistics, although showed some positive results rarely caused a negative reactions to the euro and if it even did it was not for a long time.
The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
There was held retest week, rising trendline and 1.3700 strong support level 1.3680. The volumes near so strong levels form a small divergence, indicating a possible price up rebound.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British pound also was down against the dollar most of the past week, but began leveling losses and returned lost growth part by the session end. Obviously, interest in sterling could be increased by technical factors presented strong support for the GBP / USD pair, and the weakest arguments range that allow a negative attitude to the "cable" because the "Isles" economy continues to grow.
Judging the growth rates were not confirmed by volume, it is likely to observe another rising trend line 1.6730 retest, or consolidation level development on 1.6760 support.
The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going down. The first target is 1.6750. The second target is 1.6670.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The Japanese currency as opposed to the rest of the majors most of the last five days grew against the "buck". The mood to buy yen was created by situation in the U.S. government debt market, where the "Treasuries" yield fell. The dollar was traded in a narrow range against the yen and closed the day with a small minus. In this case, the slightly decreased States bond price and the U.S. housing market yield encouraging report didn�t help to the dollar.
The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
Sellers have been trying to break down a strong 101.40 support level for the second week. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. The first target is 101. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 100.60.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
Franc decreased by the week results. However, the week end European currencies support from the unexpectedly weak the USA industrial production. The selling was intensified after it became aware of an unexpected drop in the U.S. April industrial production by 0.6 % against the expected growth 0.1%.
As the world continues to monitor the situation in Ukraine, the UN Commission on Human Rights is concerned about �rights violations" in the Ukraine east. The observers concerned about the presidential candidates safety, as well as aggression and Crimean residents possible deportation who did not agree to take Russian citizenship.
The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The growth stopped. The pair is moving in a flat. We expect it to turn down and will return to the bearish path. The first target is 0.8850, the pair may decrease to 0.8790 after consolidation below that level.
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| ValdisTF |
May 20 2014, 11:30 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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21.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
There was relatively quiet trade on the major pairs amid the lack of the important macroeconomic statistics publication at the beginning of the trade week. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD enjoyed a moderate demand in the light of technically oversold and short positions closing.
The Eurozone construction fell to 0.6 % in March compared with February, after four months of growth. Particularly, the strong construction decrease was observed in the Eurozone�s biggest economy - Germany. According to the Bundesbank's monthly report published on Monday � it is expected to slow the German economy growth in the second quarter. The increased risks in developing countries and geopolitical uncertainties in Eastern Europe complicate the economy situation.
The pound was little changed on the day before the Tuesday UK inflation data release. It is expected to accelerate the annual inflation rate - to 1.8 % in April, compared to 1.6 % in March. According to Rightmove, the UK house prices continued to rise for the fifth month in a row. The house price index from Rightmove rose by 3.6 % m/m in May, the biggest monthly gain since April 2002.
The world's leading stock markets decrease put pressure on the USD/JPY and the quotations drop to 101.09. A good machinery and equipment orders report didn�t help the "bulls" which showed a substantial increase to the 19.1 % level in March, indicating the industrial production rate growth in Japan. Traditionally, there is a demand for the U.S. dollar in the light of positive data - but this time, market participants have ignored this report. In the afternoon, the stock market trend turned around and we saw a dollar/yen moderate demand.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
News from the European continent did not have a lot of economic statistics. We can note only the Eurozone construction release on March, which indicated the reduction by 0.6 % m / m and 5.2% growth compared with the last year same period. The political bloc had more news, which will provide ECB leaders� - Weidmann and Mersch - speeches.
The trading on the euro continued through sideways consolidation for five days. But it is worth noting the fact that the major support levels 1.3700 and 1.3680 are not broke down.
The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The consolidation development is clearly on hand to buyers because namely from the 1.3700 and 1.3680 levels may happen the price bounce up to a further medium rising trend development.
A potential target for a possible bounce up will be the 1.3800 resistance level.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The pound/dollar is not an exception, and also was closed with neutral results after range sideways consolidation. There were several news from the "islands", the only worthwhile message was received from Rightmove and indicated that the housing market prices continue to rise - the price index in May recorded 3.6 % m/m, 8.9 % y/y after 2.6 % m/m, 7.3 % y/y.
The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going down. The first target is 1.6755. The second target is 1.6670.
For the growth the target is 1.6970.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The dollar/yen also closed the trades on opening price, but the volatility on this instrument was more sweeping than in other major pairs. The Japanese currency strengthened against the dollar in the light of Japan stock market falling, and then we observed the yen selling, as the U.S. stock market figured slight optimism, and the 10-years �Treasuries�� prices drop.
The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
There is a four-days consolidation at the 101.35 support level with one false break. The potential bounce targets from 101.35 are two resistance levels - 102.25 and 102.65.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The franc has consolidated after the falling in the light of the dollar general strengthening against the major currencies.
The dollar is supported by speculation regarding the asset buying program soon completion.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve representative, Williams said that "we are moving in the normalization direction, and seriously considering rate hikes starting date".
FRS is likely to raise rates in the future, as the monetary policy normalization part and QE will be completed in the second half of 2014.
The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The dollar/franc stuck in a narrow range between the 0.8903 and 0.8923 levels. The pressure on the franc is still present. The "bullish" testing risks are at the current highs 0.8959. This level break will open the way to the 91st figure. Falling below 0.8840-0.8800 will weaken "bullish" momentum and jeopardize the 87th figure.
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| ValdisTF |
May 21 2014, 10:56 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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22.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The dollar fell against the yen and the British pound, but rose to the commodity currencies; it little changed against other major currencies. Fed's Dudley said that the growth rates would be relatively slow, but they would depend on the economy state. Between the end of the Fed's asset repurchase autumn and the first rate increase � it will take a considerable time period.
The euro was traded slightly lower on Germany manufacturing inflation weak data. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell in April by 0.1 % compared with the previous month, whereas no change was expected. In annual terms, manufacturing inflation fell by 0.9 % against decrease expectations by 0.8% - the producer price has been decreasing the ninth consecutive months in a roll.
The UK consumer price inflation positive report supported the demand for the GBP/USD pair. The final rate rose to 1.8 % on an annualized basis, exceeding the market participant�s expectations. As we noted in our previous review - unemployment reducing combined with a moderate rise in consumer confidence indicator from GfK indicates an increase in Albion inflationary pressure. Against this background, GBP/USD went up.
The Japanese stock market sales led to the USD/JPY lowering yesterday. Investors get rid of Japanese shares before the Bank of Japan monetary - credit policy meeting and amid this "bears" rushed to open short positions in the profit earning hope.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The single European currency fell against the dollar. Though the euro/dollar continued a lateral "drift" it fell a bit to the low range boundary. Perhaps the market is waiting for new drivers while the Eurozone was newsflow empty for several sessions. The Germany producer showed a fall in April more than expected, and had a downward effect on the pair.
Six days in a row the euro continues to consolidate near the two strong levels: rising trendline 1.3700 and strong support level 1.3680.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3710, the next one is at 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
All indicators show a downward movement. We predict a bearish scenario The first target is 1.3650. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 1.3600.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British sterling grew up against the dollar in yesterday�s trading. The pound received a support after the inflation publication has shown some growth. As it turned out, the UK annual inflation rate rose in April, but the value was in the forecasts range, therefore, it is likely that pound buying splash was not developed and fleet.
On the daily chart the Pound continues to trade in the rising trend line direction. There is an up strong resistance level 1.6830 breakthrough on the inside daily timeframe.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.7000.
There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls� target is the level 1.7000.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The pair is downwardly traded. The yen grew against the dollar, but didn�t rise out beyond previously formed extrema, and was limited with the range growth. Obviously, the pressure on pair was exerted by the renewed decrease in the U.S. "treasuries" market yields and the Bank of Japan decision expectations of making at a rate meeting that ended on Wednesday. We doubt that the Bank of Japan will continue to expand its monetary policy tapering the near future.
Four months of long consolidation at 101.35 - 101.45 led to its breakthrough. The breakdown occurred at the diminishing volumes and can lead to consolidation at around 101.15 in the short term.
The price is finding the support at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 101, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 100.90 and 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The Swiss franc was traded in a fairly narrow range. The American session was full with Fed�s new. So, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates sooner than it was expected. He also noted that the unemployment rate forecast 6.2% at the annualized basis may be too pessimistic, but decrease below 6% by the end of 2014 is quite possible.
His colleague, New York Fed President William Dudley said that �nobody knows" when the Federal Reserve would raise its interest rates.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 0.8990.
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| ValdisTF |
May 25 2014, 02:38 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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26.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. currency showed strength against its major competitors last week. The EUR/USD lost some positions at 0.25 % after negative statistics release. The France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI index came out worse than median the forecast was which confirms the regional economy leading business negative trend. In the light of this we saw a European currency gradual weakening during the week.
The GBP/USD also remained under some pressure after the 1st quarter revised GDP data publication. The second estimate remained unchanged at 0.8 % qoq, while the industrial production growth and net exports were revised to decrease by 0.1%. The investors decided that the reason was the British pound high rate and began its active selling. As a result, the GBP/USD ended the last trading day lower by 0.2%.
The steady demand in global equity markets cheered the USD/JPY "bulls" to open long positions. It didn�t spoil the investor�s mood and moderately negative report on sales in the United States secondary housing market. The index rose by 1.3 % in April which is worse than the economists forecast. It should be noted that even though the final figures could not held up to the market participants expectations � nevertheless the housing market in April showed an increase after three consecutive months of falling, which means increased consumer confidence in the United States.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The attitude towards the euro was cold, so the European currency was under pressure from the dollar by the end of Friday's session and was on the local marked minima that showed the dollar/yen the day before. Obviously, pessimistic investors are all have the same expectations from the ECB tapering in the coming June, coupled with economy data which could be described rather as weak. The first May evaluation business activity indicators showed a Eurozone decrease.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The inclined support line 1.3630 - 1.3625 that is on downward price way can become an obstacle where the price can bounce up.
If buyers are able to break above the mark 1.3610,we can expect the pair to test 1.3687 - 1.3700 soon.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British pound also weakened against the dollar, and also, as the euro had not gone beyond the previously formed by a side corridor. As we see the pressure was from the weak data that were worse than expected.
The second resistance level retest 1.6910 was followed by the corrective rates down bounce. The price rebound fell to the rising channel bottom 1.6860. At this level it continues trading in real time.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6940.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in positive territory.
Trading recommendations
Based on the current situation, the price movement can go in two ways:
- The corrective pullback down continuation to 1.6830.
- The price growth from the current position to the resistance level 1.6910.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The Japanese stock market positive dynamics and strong Chinese data and manufacturing activity indicator rising in May supported the yen sales against the dollar. The dollar was able to maintain the buying impulse and thanks to the latest data that showed the positive results.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
A bounce down is possible. The potential bounce target is the level 101.35. If sellers can break through that support the price can be lowered to 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude on the generally positive economic data.
So, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, the Initial Jobless Claims rose from 298,000 to 326,000, while the average forecast was 305,000.
The sales in the secondary housing market showed a small increase 1.3 % in April after three consecutive months of a decrease. However, the index is still 6.8% below the year in April 2013.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
We advise long positions with the first target - 0.8970. After consolidation above the first target, the buyers� target is the level 0.9015.
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| ValdisTF |
May 28 2014, 04:20 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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28.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The new trading week is fairly quiet Forex market. The UK and in the U.S. banking institutions were closed, and against this background major pairs currency volatility has significantly decreased. The EUR/USD on a daily basis put on weight 0.15 %, demonstrating a technical correction. Mario Draghi said that the monetary regulator would not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long time.
It was also stated that the European consumer spending restrains his expecting lower price and it increases the risks to price region stability. These negative comments were ignored by investors during the day and the euro/dollar enjoyed moderate demand.
The GBP/USD trading was quietly enough during the day. On the background of low liquidity it was difficult to count on the volatility.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General survey
The European currency slightly fell against the dollar, which was probably the result of the technical levels influence, providing support for the pair now. We did not receive anything interesting from the Eurozone, still the general background rather plays against the euro after Mario Draghi said that the disinflation can cause consumers and businesses to postpone purchases and investments. The Bank will not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long period of time.
Trading recommendations
The potential pullback target may become the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3680. We expect it to retest the resistance level 1.3690. If the volumes are low, the price may bounce down. The potential decrease target is the price support level 1.3570
Pound (GBP)
General survey
The dollar strengthened against the pound. The reason is the technical factors that weakened the pair, as we know there was no release yesterday. It is expected that the report of the British Bankers' Association (BBA) will show a reduction in the April mortgage approvals number from 45.2 thousand to 45.9 previously.
There was a strong support level 1.6830 retest last Friday. The sellers once again failed to break below; there was price bounce up. The volumes do not support the correctional pound growth.
Trading recommendations
The price bounced off the strong support level 1.6830, a potential target for growth is the descending trendline 1.6890.
If the pair keeps falling it will reach 1.6830 soon.
Yen (JPY)
General survey
The yen continued the growth. The last BoJ meeting minutes, which took place on April 30 affected the market. The minutes showed the disagreement that appeared among the Central Bank members in relation to the overcoming deflation terms. The Japanese data showed the corporate services growth in April, the price grew to 3.4% y/y vs. 0.7 % y/ y, although that may be considered as the Bank of Japan policy consequence, but still, most likely looks like a result of increased tax sales.
Trading recommendations
We believe that the price will consolidate for a while at around 102.23, then will bounce down. The sellers need to break the lower uplink bound 101.90 to confirm the break.
If the pair keeps growing it will get to 102.40 soon.
Franc (CHF)
General survey
The dollar keeps a moderately positive attitude. Switzerland will publish GDP (q/q) (Q1). The numbers are expected to be 0.6 % versus 0.2 %. If to compare with the previous year the growth will be 2.1% versus 1.7 %. The United States will publish the durable goods orders. In April, the main index is expected at 0.4 % vs. 2.6%.
Trading recommendations
It is recommended long positions with the first target - 0.8986. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9016.
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| ValdisTF |
May 28 2014, 10:22 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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29.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the U.S. currency continued to strengthen against most of its competitors. The EUR/USD remained under pressure against the positive macroeconomic statistics publication from the United States. The orders for durable goods in April rose by 0.8 %, which indicates increased demand from the U.S. consumers and the positive factor for economic growth.
The euro was down against the ECB officials statements backdrop which reinforced expectations monetary policy easing, although it was slightly strengthened at the beginning of the day. The ECB Novotny said that inflation in the euro area was significantly below the target level ECB's 2%, and so low that there was a decrease growth risk. Novotny made it clear that the current discussions are directed toward interest rates lowering. The European Central Bank President Draghi said the ECB kept in mind the risks related with too long low inflation period still he did not see the deflation risk.
The Bears actively sold the GBP/USD pair yesterday. The States pleased investors with positive orders for durable goods and consumer confidence from Conference Board. Together with the EUR/GBP cross-course short positions closing - British pound significantly weakened against its U.S. counterpart.
The Rally in global stock markets supports the demand for the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the "bulls" rather cautiously go long, knowing that in the face of rising inflationary pressures in the Land of the Rising Sun it is difficult to expect a strong Japanese yen weakening. As a result, the USD/JPY ended trading with symbolic increase by 0.1%.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The single European currency was not able to get support and fell again against the dollar in yesterday's trading. There was not published any important data on the Eurozone economy yesterday, and another Draghi�s speech in its content was more about euro sales.
The price is finding the support at 1.357. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going down. The indicators show a downward movement. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound is the most vulnerable currency this week. The falling market mortgage reports have pushed sterling to the sale which was then supported by the U.S. economy data. According to the report the British Bankers' Association BBA approvals for mortgage fell in April to 42.2 thousand from 45. 9 thousand and the expected reduction to only 45.0 thousand.
For the fifth time the British pound corrected to the week rising trendline 1.6790 and broke it.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6670, the next one is at 1.6600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6800.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
The pair is decreasing. The indicators confirm a downward movement. The GBP/USD continued the downward movement on a high volume. The potential targets for the decrease are 1.6670 and 1.6600.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The dollar/yen yesterday's session was held in multidirectional trade and closed the day nearly on opening prices. Obviously, the market is waiting for new guidelines, as political events related to the Bank of Japan statements and contain conflicting signals and do not have certain conclusions. Under these conditions, the increased importance get the Japanese economy April data, especially the consumer price index (CPI) which will be released in the last trading day of the week and month.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The dollar rose to seven -week high after the report showed an unexpected increase in orders for durable goods in April.
Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the U.S. GDP growth in the second half with a 3.50 % to 3.25 %. The forecast for the first quarter decreased to 0.8 % due to falling stocks, and the forecast for the second quarter maintained at 3.7 %.
The published U.S. statistics showed that orders for durable goods in April rose 0.8 % vs. 0.5 % and 2.5 % in March.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
The support is at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. The potential target for the growth is the resistance 0.9000.
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| ValdisTF |
Jun 1 2014, 02:19 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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02.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
We had a volatile the last trading day. The EUR/USD gained 0.1 % against the negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The second GDP estimate for Q1 came out worse than the median forecast, indicating a significant decrease in the world's leading economy in the first three months of this year. However, we have not seen the sharp dollar fall � euro downtrend is strong enough and one negative report is not enough to change the trend now.
There was consolidation near 67 figure on the GBP/USD during the last trading day. The technical analysis shows that the British currency is short-term oversold now and the investors quickly close their short positions. It should also be noted that the market participants have ignored the negative statistics from the U.S. GDP for Q1.
Though the world's leading stock markets strong growth - the USD/JPY has been swung for 4 consecutive days that can be a sign of a possible decrease in the short term. The U.S. GDP data revision also could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions - according to the second estimate the index dropped to 1 % qoq which means the world economy locomotive significant slowing.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The European currency was influenced by the external events, mainly from the U.S., which resulted in the mixed traffic and, ultimately, against the "greenback" closure almost at opening prices with a small "profit" that was the result of the technical factors. The Eurozone newsflow did not show any significant news. The information that could attract the investors� attention had been already published it is April German retail sales that fell by 0.9 % m/m
The price is finding the support at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound did not show independence, and in the news absence it showed the same volatility against the dollar as the euro. As a result, the "cable" nearly closed at opening prices. The GfK report announced an improvement in the consumer May confidence indicator to the level 0 from - 3, the Hometrack information showed that the housing prices continued to rise in May, although less rapidly, +0.5% m/m , 6.1 % y/y vs. 0.6 % m/m , 6.0 % y/y in April. While this facts support the sterling, and it grew up a bit against the dollar. However, the further events development is already dictated by the U.S. indicators results and it can shift the emphasis in favor of "greenback".
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short. Our targets are 1.6670 and 1.6630.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The course practically ignored the country statistics.
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude despite the weak U.S. GDP data in Q1. The labor market supported the U.S. currency in a way. The initial jobless claims fell to 300k vs. 318k.
The GDP in Q1 was decreased by 1.0 % q / q vs. 0.5 % q / q and 0.1% preliminary assessment.
It is unlikely that the data will have the lasting impact on the trading as the result cannot be called unexpected due to the last winter weather inclement.
The price is finding the first support at 0.892. The resistance is at 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair has stopped the growth and is showing the trend reversal. The pair may enter the cloud this week. If the pair stays under the cloud a while that might weaken the bullish momentum. The first downward target is the level 0.8920.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency was no exception and also ended the last session at the near opening prices after the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar. In this case, the main volatility cause was the U.S. debt market events which almost always affect the dollar/yen. Japan published news set from the previous month. The inflation dynamics and demand for yen was influenced by the sales tax increased in April, not from the Japan Bank's measures.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
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| ValdisTF |
Jun 3 2014, 11:56 PM
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Senior Money Maker
Group: Members
Posts: 544
Dream Points: 2,770
Experience Points: 594
Joined: 6-May 14
Member No.: 490,865
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04.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. dollar briskly started the first summer month. The EUR/USD lost 0.25% against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The preliminary CPI in Germany showed the inflationary pressure compression to the level 0.9 % year on year, the lowest level since July 2010. This report indicates that the Germans are under the negativity wave from the structural problems in the Eurozone now.
The States also well pleased the dollar "bulls"� the ISM manufacturing index in May was better than the median forecasts, has been showing the growth the 4th consecutive month.
The weak PMI report from Markit Economics for the UK manufacturing sector provoked short positions in the pair GBP/USD. This release confirms the fact that the British currency excessive growth is negative for the economy manufacturing sector. In a moment the GBP/USD price fell to 1.6724 mark, and then we watched a technical bounce, signaling the demand for sterling in figure 67.
The strong growth in the Japanese stock market on Monday cheered the "bulls" to open long positions. The 102.13 resistance level could not resist and we saw the maximum values update for the last 4 weeks.
Macroeconomic statistics from the United States also supported the demand for the U.S. dollar against the Yen - the ISM manufacturing sector was at 56, which is 0.3 better than the forecast surveyed by Bloomberg.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell against the dollar on Monday, still it has not left the consolidation range. The pressure on the single currency came from the economic data provided by the Eurozone manufacturing activity final assessment and the leading countries in May, as well as the German inflation report in the same month.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
The consolidation at 1.3600 can lead to the price pullback up in the short term. To short confidently the sellers need to break and consolidate below the support level 1.3600. This breakthrough opens the way to the marks: 1.3570, 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The pound/dollar spent a very boring session yesterday � it was traded in a narrow range and closed the day almost at opening prices, but with a dollar benefits mark. The "islands" statistics indicated unsatisfactory dynamics, still at the same time, showed that the economy recovers.
The short-term 1.6765 resistance level retest which was observed last Friday, was accompanied with the consolidation. The continued consolidation has not led to a rapid price bounce while the trading is still going on in the strong resistance area.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest is false, it will be followed by a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude after the May ISM report corrected publication taking into account seasonal factors, which were not included in the original report released an hour earlier.
Thus the ISM index was revised from 53.2 to 56.0 and then to 55.4. We also expected the May business activity report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which the data will be available to investors on the production orders.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that�s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to long with the first target - 0.9015. When the price consolidates above the first target, be advised to buy to 0.9040.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The impulse for the yen sales the pair received from the Chins industry data which showed good results and decreased concerns about a sharp slowdown in the "Middle Kingdom" economy. Besides, the willingness to take risks was maintained by optimism in the stock Japan market - Nikkei rose by more than 2.0 %, as well as stability of the U.S. Treasuries government debt market situation where the yield is high. Speaking of prospects, which began yesterday, the USD/JPY is likely to slow down - it is unlikely that the market was ready to an aggressive trading before important news from the euro area and the United States.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD indicator left the neutral territory and started growing.
Trading recommendations
The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70.
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