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Forexswingtrading.com Mwf Analysis, EUR/USD Forecasts

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Jun 6 2014, 06:52 AM

Post #1

New Money Maker

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Joined: 5-June 14
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The past couple of days have been a wild ride on the EUR/USD pair. The cycle up completed on May 30th, and the down cycle completed yesterday after the EUR Minimum Bid Rate announcement came out. It then reversed back up almost immediately after finishing the cycle and we are not in the middle of the up cycle.

The seasonals are also bullish as is my smart money indicator, both on the 4 hr. and on the daily.

With that said I would still exercise caution. The pair has already run 170 pips to the upside, which doesn't leave much profit potential unless the technicals on the daily chart shifts to a more bullish outlook.

If you are risk averse I would wait until next week and see how things look then. If you are more risk loving I wold wait for a pullback to the 1.3620 support level. The time I am looking for this to occur is between 5-7pm (GMT+7)

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FST2045	Jun 9 2014, 05:43 AM Post #2
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	The seasonal pattern for today and tomorrow are up on the EUR/USD but the cycle is over extended to the upside the smart money on the 4 hr chart appears to be selling, and the seaonal pattern shifts to bearish on Wednesday June 11th. So I am looking to short this pair. However I would like to see it retrace to the 1.3660 level and I am looking for this to happen around 14:30 to 16:30 (GMT+7) and between 21:00 to 24:00 (GMT+7) Trade Review- I said this for the pair last Friday �If you are more risk loving I would wait for a pullback to the 1.3620 support level. The time I am looking for this to occur is between 5-7pm (GMT+7)� As you can see the move hit the bottom at 5:15 PM and went up and the low was 1.3619 and it moved up 57 pips from there. Not all of my forecasts will be this clean, but this was as clear as it gets, calling the precise time, direction, and price. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 11 2014, 02:54 AM Post #3
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	The EUR/USD Forecast for today is still bearish. The seasonals are down, and we are in the middle of the cycle down. The pair has already dropped 140 pips out of a potential 220 pips, so I would like to see some pullback before entering. I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good. There�s a good chance it won�t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that�s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7). Trade Review � On Monday I said �I am looking to short this pair. However I would like to see it retrace to the 1.3660 level and I am looking for this to happen around 14:30 to 16:30 (GMT+7) and between 21:00 to 24:00 (GMT+7)� As you can see by the chart below, the move came 30 Minutes before I predicted, but I got the price and direction spot on. I missed the move, but I hope that some of you got it. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 13 2014, 04:25 AM Post #4
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	In today�s EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The daily smart money indicator is down. However the 4 Hr. indicator is up, so we do have some conflict. The seasonal tendency is also down. Because of the conflicting indicators I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7). There are also some other time frames later on in the day that are possible such as 4:30-7:00 PM but given that today is a Friday I probably won�t enter a trade that late in the day as I don�t like holding over the weekends. Trade Review- On Wednedsday I said - �I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good. There�s a good chance it won�t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that�s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7).� As you can see by the chart below the move came at 6:30 PM but I was 5 Pips off and the high was at 1.3555. However I did manage to call the direction correctly. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 16 2014, 07:02 AM Post #5
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	In today's EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The short up cycle completed on Friday and started it's descent. In addition the seasonal indicator is saying down as is the 4 Hr. Smart Money Indicator. With that said I am looking for the reversal area at 1.3570. It may not make it up that high but if it does that's where I'll look for the reversal. I'll be looking for it to come between 1 PM to 4 PM (GMT+7), 6:30 to 8:30 PM and 9:30 to 11:30 PM. Trade Review On Friday I said - "I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7)." As you can see by the chart below I was 2 Pips from the high and the reversal came exactly at 3:30 PM, for a potential 58 Pip ride down. Congrats if you managed to score some pips from this! --------------------

FST2045	Jun 20 2014, 05:56 AM Post #6
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	For today's EUR/USD forecast I recommending for you to stand aside. As I mentioned in Tuesday's trade update it looks like the market was shifting to the upside, which it did. However the up cycle is nearing completion but it will likely still go a bit higher or sideways for awhile, before it drops. Since it's Friday I see no need to rush into this. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 23 2014, 06:04 AM Post #7
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	The EUR/USD Forecast today is looking down. The cycle up finished last Friday and then started it's descent on the same day. I expected some movement sideways or even more to the upside but we never got it. Today I am looking for it to retrace to around the 1.3645 level before it continues to drop. This is where I would look for the short and I expect this to come sometime around 13:00 to 15:00 (GMT+7) or 16:30 to 20:30 (GMT+7) The seasonals are also looking bearish. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 25 2014, 02:41 AM Post #8
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	In today's EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend standing aside. The cycle direction isn't clear and volume is telling me nothing. Until the direction becomes more clear I would do nothing. --------------------

FST2045	Jun 27 2014, 01:22 AM Post #9
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	For today's EUR/USD Forecast I am going to be looking to the short side with the entry at around 1.3620. I will be looking for the drop to come between 12:30 to 4pm (GMT +7) --------------------

FST2045	Jun 30 2014, 04:55 AM Post #10
New Money Maker Group: Members Posts: 11 Dream Points: 105 Experience Points: 61 Joined: 5-June 14 Member No.: 497,205	For today's EUR/USD forecast we will be looking for continued movement to the upside. The cycle has shifted. Look to a pullback to the 1.3620 level to occur between 14:30 to 18:30 (GMT+7). Trade review if you took my advice on Friday you likely lost a few pips. The trade did fall as I predicted but only by about 7 or 8 pips. It then reversed and I lost about 15 pips on the trade. --------------------

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