Posted by fxmars.com
The orange falling wedge formation, which was created as a result of the downward movement of the confirmed D1 double top formation with tops from March 13 and May 8, the price broke the upper level of the wedge and increased in order to test the already broken 1.36711 neck line of the double top formation as a resistance. Currently, it looks like the price was resisted by the level, which implies for an eventual drop of the price. After all the already confirmed double top formation is expected to decrease the price at least to the support at 1.34739, which indicates a bottom from February 2. Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator is currently giving signals for an overbought market, which supports the bearish scenario. The eventual decrease of the price might find supports at 1.35583 and 1.34739. If the price breaks through the 1.36711 resistance, we might see the price being resisted at the 6-yearsh blue bearish trend line and the upper level of the already broken purple triangle.
After decreasing to the support at 100.756, we were watching a constant bullish increase, which created the 3-times tested orange bullish trend line from May 21. The bullish activity brought the price to test the green 102.770 resistance and the lower level of the already broken purple triangle at once. The price bounced from this level, which was the reason for the creation of the third bottom of the orange bullish trend line. At the same time, the momentum indicator signalizes for an overbought market, which supports the bearish scenario. As a trigger of a short position, we could use any bearish break through the orange bullish trend line. If the price decreases, it might find supports at 101.197 and 100.756. On the other hand, the potential resistances are the two sides of the already broken purple triangle and the blue resistance zone around 103.750.
With bouncing for third time from the purple bearish line which connects the May 6 and May 21 tops of the double top formation on D1, the price showed indication that the purple bearish line could already be considered as a bearish trend. We also remind that with interrupting the 1.67214 neck line, the Cable actually confirmed the double top formation. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator is about to give signals for an overbought market, which is the third signal of our bearish thesis. For this reason, we believe that the current bounce from the purple bearish trend line from May 6 might appear to be the beginning of a new stronger bearish activity, which might even complete the already confirmed double top formation and could bring a decrease of about 300 bearish pips.
As we know, the situation by this pair is pretty much parallel to the EUR/USD scenario. In this case the formation is double bottom and the wedge is rising. After a bearish divergence between the last tops of the price and the stochastic oscillator, the price broke in bearish direction and decreased its value with about 80 bearish pips, which might place the rising wedge formation in the list of completed formations. Furthermore, the current slowdown of the bearish activity might be a signal for an upcoming bullish activity. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator has entered the 0-20 area and it is about to give a signal for an oversold market. If the price increases, the potential resistances would be 0.89486, 0.90367 and 0.90825. Another decrease of the price would make us consider the supports at 0.88618 and 0.87453 as potential threats for every bear.
The attempt for a break in the 0.92027 neck line of the double top formation with tops from April 10 and r is just about to give a May 14 brought the price to a third interaction with the upper level of the already broken triangle from April 10. This implies that the purple bearish trend line could already be considered as a bearish trend line. After interacting with the purple bearish trend, the price closed a bearish candle, which speaks of a resistance in the level. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator is about to give us a signal for an overbought market. If the price drops, the first support to be met is the 0.92027 neck line of the potential double top formation and the 0.89892 level. A break in the purple bearish trend line could be used as a trigger of a long position, which might find obstacles at 0.93787 and 0.94580 resistance.
The bearish break through the parallel triangle from April 15 decreased the price to around 1243.10, where it created a bottom, which might appear to be a crucial level in case of an eventual continuation of the bearish activity. Currently, the price is showing indications for a correction of the bearish activity. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator just did a rapid increase, which got it out of the oversold area. The correction itself might be resisted by the 1268.56 level and the both sides of the already broken green triangle. Any further decrease of the price might meet the supports at 1243.10 and 1230.82. A break through 1.230.82 would increase the chances for a new sharp bearish movement of the price.
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