A comprehensive forum for discussing futures and commodities trading; includes energies, light sweet crude, financials, grains, indices, meats, metals, softs, quotes, charts, opinions, polls, book store, crop weather, and news. http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:31:15 -0500 1440 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=63910
I want to test a theory of mine and I need some currency futures charts, but finding these seems an impossible task ... can anyone help - suggest a broker that offers a demo with such futures or any other way to obtain it ?


Greatly appreciated!]]> Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:33:29 -0500 63910 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=63752
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Somali pirates hijacked an oil tanker owned by Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the largest vessel ever seized, in an attack off the east African coast, the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet said.

Oil prices pared losses on the news and Odfjell SE, the world's largest chemicals shipping line, said its vessels will now sail around Africa, rather than risk attacks near the Suez Canal and Gulf of Aden.

The tanker, Sirius Star, operated by Vela International, was carrying crude oil and was hijacked when a group of pirates managed to scale the 10-meter (32-foot) high side of the ship, Lieutenant Nate Christensen said in a phone interview from Bahrain, where the Fifth Fleet is based. The International Maritime Bureau, which compiles data on piracy, said the incident took place 450 miles (833 kilometers) southeast of Mogadishu, Somalia.

Sirius Star, designed to carry more than 2 million barrels of crude, ``is three times the size of a U.S. aircraft carrier and shows how they are successfully expanding their operations,'' Christensen said, adding that previous attacks have occurred within 200 nautical miles of land.

``We have heard reports that the ship has been freed and we are checking into it, we have no information to confirm,'' Christensen said. Fifth Fleet Commander Jane Campbell said the incident was 450 miles southeast of Mombasa, Kenya, and the ship is now approaching anchorage off the Somali coast, near Ely.

International Crew

The crew of 25 includes citizens of Croatia, the U.K., the Philippines, Poland, and Saudi Arabia, Christensen said. He said he believed the ship was carrying crude oil. Dhahran-based Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the incident, and Vela International, Aramco's shipping unit, couldn't immediately be reached for comment by phone or e-mail.

Al-Arabiya television cited an unidentified Saudi Arabian official as saying the tanker had been released.

Piracy in the Gulf of Aden, between Yemen and Somalia and leading to the Suez Canal, has more than doubled in 2008, with assailants using the global positioning system and satellite phones to find potential targets, according to an October report by the London-based research organization Chatham House.

The attacks may force shipping away from the Gulf of Aden to take the longer route to Europe and North America round South Africa's Cape of Good Hope. The extra weeks of sailing and fuel consumption could have a major impact on oil and commodity prices, Chatham House said.

Combating Piracy

The European Union agreed on Oct. 10 to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, India, Malaysia and Russia in deploying vessels to combat piracy. About 11 percent of the world's seaborne petroleum, on its way to the Suez Canal or regional refineries, passes through the Gulf of Aden.

Christensen said the Navy was evaluating the situation when asked what measures were being taken to free Sirius Star.

The seizure is the first of a very large crude carrier, or VLCC, on record, Mark Jenkins, an analyst at Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world's second-largest shipbroker, said by phone, adding the attack was ``probably opportunistic.''

Failure to increase the protection of its fleet would likely ``compromise'' Saudi Aramco's ability to sell oil to customers in the U.S. and Europe, Jenkins said.

``Even if you've got to spend quite a lot of money, it's going to be a worthwhile investment if the alternative is you can't sell the oil as readily as you would otherwise aim to do,'' he said.

Crude oil for December delivery rose as high as $57.57 a barrel at 2:41 p.m. London time, recovering from an earlier low of $55.29 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:53:35 -0500 63752 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=63210 Staff Reporter

Korea’s trade deficit could be seriously reduced thanks to the freefall in the price of oil, which accounts for 20 percent of the country’s imports.

he global oil market recently witnessed the price of Dubai crude, the future price of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil drop to the $50 level for the first time since March last year.

The fluctuation in Dubai crude has been especially dramatic, falling 5.4 percent and 4.2 percent on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Experts call the drastic dips in prices in recent weeks ``abnormal’’ and say the trend is not likely to be sustained for an extensive period.

``The recent fall in prices was triggered by the financial crisis and the fear of a global recession,’’ an official of the Korea National Oil Corp. (KNOC) said.

``However, the level of the fall has been considered excessive and a rebound is likely. The possibility of oil prices settling around $50 to $60 is unlikely,’’ he added.

According to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the price of crude oil purchased by the country will drop to $72 per barrel this month, 27 percent lower than last month.

Korean refineries purchase oil based on the average price on the shipping date, and given that it takes about 20 days to bring the shipments to Korea from the Middle East, a time difference of about 50 days exists for changes in global oil prices to take effect here.

Gasoline prices have fallen to the point where fuel is now actually cheaper than crude oil.

According to the Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC), the price of 92-octane gasoline closed at $52.76 a barrel on the Singapore oil market Friday, about a dollar less than Dubai crude, which was traded at $53.81 a barrel.

It was the third straight day that gasoline was bought for less than crude, a situation that first occurred in August for the first time in seven years.

On Aug. 1, gasoline was purchased for $120.25 a barrel, compared with $120.40 a barrel for Dubai crude ― the first time since Aug. 2, 2001 that gasoline was traded cheaper than crude.

Gasoline was traded at $59.36 a barrel on Wednesday, lower than $59.26 for Dubai crude, and $56.21 a barrel Thursday, widening its gap with Dubai crude, which closed at $55.66.

Recent gasoline prices in the global oil market represent their lowest level in about three years, according to the KNOC.

``It is a comparable situation with 2001, when refineries began selling gasoline at dumping prices, with demand falling greatly due to the Asian financial crisis,’’ said an KNOC official.

``Refineries today are also looking to boost gasoline exports before prices fall further, but the freefall in prices were sped up by recent economic turmoil curbing the demand in gasoline,’’ he said.

It remains to be seen whether the recent skid in gasoline prices would be enough to bring a shift to the driving habits of Koreans.

Gasoline prices at local gas stations were at 1,567.30 won (about $1.19) per liter Saturday, the first time since November that prices dropped below 1,600 won per liter.

Compared to three years ago, fuel prices at local gas stations have risen just above 10 percent, the KNOC said.

Source: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/natio.../123_34122.html]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 13:29:17 -0500 63210 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=55155
Clic here to read an article so interesting about Silver quote by David Morgan.

What do you think about it?
Take your time to visit the 24h Gold website that is really well done.]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:39:29 -0400 55155 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=54017 I know there must be some people
[/b]that are in the same age bracket
as I am.

I have always been interested in
the Stock Market. My Dad and
Grandparents did very well with
their investments. I sure
would like to follow in their footsteps!

I have been retired since October of 1993.
We established our residency close to the
Eastern Shore. This was in May of 1994.

I certainly do not want to go off the beaten
path regarding investments. Does
anyone have some ideas about just what to do?

Now, I realize that what you have to invest now
is a major chore, but one thing I do not want
to do is let people know what category I am
in financially. However, let's say
someone like me has a six figure amount to
invest. Where would a good place to
put it at age 72?

Any help will be greatly appreciated!!

Tom Leighton[b]

]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 19:12:36 -0400 54017 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=52919
It is based on this ideology that I have spent 6 long months in Africa trying to broker a deal and I have finally reached an agreement with Sudan, Brunei and Nigeria. This agreement will not only allow me to move 300,000 tons of crude oil from their ports monthly but also with a 20% discount if I can provide a source for rice import in these countries. There is also more, I am to pay 55% of the total sum being exported before shipping and the remaining 45% upon the ships docking at their destination.

For any business man such as myself, I would say "this is a deal of a life time", but still yet being a meticulous man, I know that that it is too big for me alone and that is why I am using this medium to seek for a partner, someone well versed in business issues such as import and export, who will run the home front, while I remain here to conclude this brokerage.

Investments and profits will be split 50-50.

I also have a scheduled plan of selling this deal to the government after one year of successful running, this is going to generate more profit and still secure the economy in terms of policy change.

All this being said, I would also like to inform my would be partner, that we have just one month to conclude this deal before it is handed to the Chinese or North Koreans who seem to be clamoring for the same deal.

I expect a serious and quick response. I can be reached at [kaizerj.enterprise@gmail.com] for further discussions.

John Kaizer

]]> Wed, 04 Jun 2008 06:37:48 -0400 52919 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=50649
Exxon's profit margin is 11.23%, so at $3.50/gallon Exxon gets 39 cents, this is after the US government taxed their profits; $29 billion from Exxon alone, 41% of their profits. The US government earned 27 cents per gallon off Exxon

Then there is the federal tax of 18.4 cents per gallon. State taxes average 28.6 cents per gallon, so in direct taxes on your gas, 47 cents goes to the government.

Add in the taxes on oil companies and 74 cents goes to the US government versus 39 cents to Exxon, almost double. So who should the "windfall" profit tax be on? The entity that produces and delivers the gas or the one that does nothing at all? Who is really "gouging" you at the pump? This is after the US and State governments have taxed your income, made you pay for a drivers licenses and tabs for your car, among many other things.


****Please note the numbers on Exxon assume that all they do is sell gasoline. I still believe the argument is valid.

]]> Fri, 02 May 2008 16:55:42 -0400 50649 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=50139

Wednesday, Apr. 23 2008
Wal-Mart Rations Rice, Warns of "Supply and Demand" Concerns

Wal-Mart, the worlds largest retailer, said on Wednesday that it would ration the amount of rice each customer can purchase because of recent supply and demand trends.

We are limiting the sale of Jasmine, Basmati and Long Grain White Rices to four bags per member visit, the company said in a statement. This is effective immediately in all of our U.S. clubs, where quantity restrictions are allowed by law.

Wal-Mart (WMT: 57.15, +0.60, +1.06%) is the first major grocer to limit the purchasing of a commodity because of the recent run up in prices. The company said it is not limiting the purchase of other basic food products like flour or oil.

The price of rice, which is the primary foodstuff for the majority of the human population around the world, rose to $894 a metric ton according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Thats compared to the $327.25 a ton average price in the same month last year.

In Chicago, the price of export-quality rice rose to $24.745 per 100 pounds on Tuesday.

The run up in price in rice is primarily related to poor harvests and countries curbing exports. Thailand, Asias largest exporter of rice, said it may curb exports.

The World Food Program called the recent run up in prices of rice and other basic commodities a silent famine.

Wal-Mart did not say when the rationing would end, but it was working with our suppliers to address this matter to ensure we are in stock, and we are asking for our members' cooperation and patience.]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:50:33 -0400 50139 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=50062


Declining retail sales, housing still screwed, energy and food commodities skyrocketing - I know the market anticipates future conditions but don't the glasses seem a little extra rosy right now?

We bought a lot more Macs and stuff from Amazon. So everyone's staying home and on the internet. Does that mean the rest of the economy doesn't matter? Housing in the cellar - ha, so what, Mariah Carey had a lot of Amazon downloads!

From a short perspective, probably the creepiest thing about this stock market is the way we dinged $120 on oil and we rally anyway. If we get short capitulation here in the next few days, we could blow through resistance and get a monster rally.

Plenty of mutual funds and pension funds are sitting on huge amounts of cash after selling stock for the last six months and they exist to hold long stock. That's what they do. They sure as hell aren't in business to short stocks. If they start leaning on this thing to the upside that will push things a lot higher.]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:38:19 -0400 50062 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=49889 Millennium-Traders.Com

Crude Oil bolted to over $119.00 a barrel, just off the $120 mark and somebody should stop it! The markets held in negative territory through out the trading session amidst a combo of earnings reports and of course the pathetic price of Crude Oil (unless your an oil man of course). (read more)

At the closing bell on the Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. indices ended the session on the U.S. Markets:

DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) triple digit loss of 104.79 points on the day to end the session at 12,720.23

NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) loss of 84.32 points to end the session at 9,227.97

NASDAQ loss of 31.10 points for a close at 2,376.94

S&P 500 loss of 12.23 points for a close at 1,375.94

FTSE All-World ex-U.S. loss of 1.22 points to close at 249.73

FTSE RAFI 1000 loss of 57.56 points to close at 5,522.43

BEL 20 loss of 30.95 points on the day to end the session at 3,859.14

CAC 40 loss of 37.71 points on the day to end the session at 4,872.64

FTSE100 loss of 18.3 points on the day to end the session at 6,034.70

NIKKEI 225 triple digit loss of 148.8 points on the day to end the session at 13,547.80

News on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today: advanced stocks 885; declined stocks 2,280; unchanged stocks 84; stocks hitting new highs 90; stocks hitting new lows 65. Daily Trading Range and end of day trading results for volatile NYSE stocks traded by active Day Traders today: Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) shed 1.25 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $131.25, low on the trading day $127.42, for a closing price at $128.35; Intrepid Potash, Incorporated (NYSE: IPI) high on the trading day $65.00, low on the trading day $32.00, for a closing price at $46.25; DST Systems Incorporated (NYSE: DST) shed 10.40 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $62.81, low on the trading day $53.83, for a closing price at $56.90; InterContinental Exchange, Incorporated (NYSE: ICE) shed 9.89 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $159.06, low on the trading day $148.46, for a closing price at $149.68; Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) shed 1.24 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $130.92, low on the trading day $127.24, for a closing price at $127.59; Platinum Underwriters Holdings Limited (NYSE: PTP) gained 2.27 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $36.50, low on the trading day $34.44, for a closing price at $36.03; Transocean, Incorporated (NYSE: RIG) shed 1.73 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $159.62, low on the trading day $156.16, for a closing price at $157.94; UltraShort Financials ProShares (NYSE: SKF) gained 2.67 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $108.68, low on the trading day $105.82, for a closing price at $107.77; CF Industries Holdings, Incorporated (NYSE: CF) shed 2.46 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $158.50, low on the trading day $149.82, for a closing price at $153.50; Meredith Corporation (NYSE: MDP) shed 4.82 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $36.49, low on the trading day $32.51, for a closing price at $32.52; CME Group, Incorporated (NYSE: CME) shed 46.48 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $503.98, low on the trading day $460.26, for a closing price at $477.02; Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Incorporated (NYSE: POT) gained 5.48 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $206.71, low on the trading day $214.69, for a closing price at $214.27; Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) gained 3.48 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $116.81, low on the trading day $111.01, for a closing price at $116.04.

News on the NASDAQ today: advanced stocks 706; declined stocks 2,222; unchanged stocks 134; stocks hitting new highs 24; stocks hitting new lows 134. Trading range and end of day trading results for volatile NASDAQ stocks traded by active Day Traders today: Intuitive Surgical, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: ISRG) shed 15.73 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $286.98, low on the trading day $275.13, for a closing price at $275.75; Netflix, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: NFLX) shed 9.31 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $33.75, low on the trading day $29.45, for a closing price at $30.01; First Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: FSLR) gained 7.06 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $308.24, low on the trading day $295.71, for a closing price at $298.91; Millicom International Cellular SA (NasdaqGS: MICC) gained 11.70 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $109.05, low on the trading day $101.51, for a closing price at $107.51; Google Incorporated (NasdaqGS: GOOG) gained 18.65 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $560.83, low on the trading day $537.56, closing price $556.44; Baidu.com, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: BIDU) shed 7.11 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $356.90, low on the trading day $343.31, closing price $350.40.

News on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) today: advanced stocks 451; declined stocks 765; unchanged stocks 102; stocks hitting new highs 37; stocks hitting new lows 31.

Redbook: U.S. Retail Sales fell 1.3% during first 2 weeks in April versus March. U.S. chain store sales fell 1.3% in the first two weeks of April compared with the previous month, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator of national retail sales released Tuesday. The drop in the index was slightly milder than the targeted 1.4%, according to the report. The Johnson Redbook Index additionally showed seasonally adjusted sales in the month-to-date rose 1.9% compared with April 2007 which is just above the 1.8% targeted increase. Redbook said on an unadjusted basis, sales in the week ending April 19 were up 1.7% from the same week in 2007, after a 2.0% gain the previous week.

U.S. March Existing Home Sales consensus was at rate of 4.93M; U.S. Inventory of Unsold U.S. Homes at 9.9 months supply; U.S. March Median Existing Home Price fell 7.7% on the year to $200,700.

Richmond Fed: April Retail Revenues Index fell 10 versus March reading at a drop by 30; April Services Revenues Index fell 2 versus March reading at a drop by 5; April Mfg Shipments Index 6 versus March reading of 13; April Manufacturing Index 0 versus March reading of 6. Economic activity in the Richmond area contracted in April per the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond announcement on Tuesday. In March, activity in the area had expanded for the first time in five months. This month however, the bank's manufacturing index for the current month fell, coming in at 0 versus 6 in March. Growth in factory shipments and new orders tapered off and factory employment contracted further, according to the survey, with most other indicators also suggesting additional softness. The shipments index was at 6 from 13 in March. Numbers above zero point to growth. In the service sector, the service sector revenues index improved, rising to a negative 2 from a negative 5. The employment index also improved in April, with hiring activity in the service sector at a drop by 2 in April compared to a drop by 4 during March. The retail sales index also rose, hitting a negative 10 in April, from a negative 30 the previous month. Employment was steady, at a negative 22. On prices, manufacturers reported that raw material prices fell at an average annual rate of 4.63% in April, compared with March's reading of 4.97%. Finished good prices, though rose at a 2.55% pace, climbing above with March's reading of 1.98%. Meanwhile, companies remained less confident overall about their business prospects for the next six months. The index of expected shipments ticked up in April to 15 from 14, and the new orders indicator fell to 6 from 9. Readings on planned capital expenditures were flat with the index at a reading of 2 the prior month. Companies' plans to increase employment slipped, with the index at 4 versus index of 5 in March. The average workweek reading fell to 1 from 2. The expected wage index fell to 18 from 20. Regarding prices over the next six months, respondents expect the prices they pay will lessen. The prices paid index for six month's ahead was at 4.35% versus 5.44% and the prices received was at 1.98% versus 2.85%. All companies that participated in the survey are located within the Federal Reserve of Richmond district, which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and most of West Virginia.

Commodities Markets
Energy Sector:
Light Crude (NYM) gained $1.89 on the day to close at $119.50 a barrel ($US per bbl.); Heating Oil (NYM) gained $0.01 on the day to close at $3.20 a gallon ($US per gal.); Natural Gas (NYM) shed $0.11 on the day to close at $10.76 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.); Unleaded Gas (NYM) gained $0.04 on the day to close at $3.02 a gallon ($US per gal.).

Metals Markets:
Gold (CMX) gained $7.60 to close at $925.200 ($US per Troy oz.); Silver (CMX) gained $0.35 to close at $17.71 ($US per Troy oz.); Platinum (NYM) gained $10.10 to close at $2,037.40 ($US per Troy oz.) and Copper (CMX) gained $0.09 to close at $3.96 ($US per lb.).

Livestock and Meat Markets (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (CME) gained 0.70 to close at 73.68; Pork Bellies (CME) shed 0.95 to close at 74.55; Live Cattle (CME) gained 0.15 to close at 92.10; Feeder Cattle (CME) shed 0.03 to close at 109.08.

Other Commodities (cents per bu.):
Corn (CBT) gained 14.00 to close the session at 607.75 and Soybeans (CBT) gained 59.00 to close the session at 1,389.50.

Bonds were higher across the board today:
2 year bond shed 1/32 at 99 5/32 with a Yield of 2.18, Yield Change +0.01; 5 year bond no change to close at 98 14/32 with a Yield of 2.93, Yield Change 0.00; 10 year bond gained 10/32 to close at 98 14/32 with a Yield of 3.69, Yield Change 0.03; the 30 year bond gained 26/32 to close at 98 28/32 on the day with a Yield of 4.44, Yield Change 0.05.

The e-mini Dow $5 ended the commodity session today at 12,713 with a loss of 95 points on the trading session. Futures Traders should review workshops available at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). Educational in-person seminars schedules available on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) website.

The end of day results for the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) not available.

Monitor scheduled economic data every market morning by viewing the Daily Market Report from Millennium-Traders, free access to visitors on our website.

Subscribe to our free Weekly MarketNews for a review of the past weeks trading action plus, view upcoming economic data for the week ahead.

Review archives of the News & Commentary plus, our FREE Monthly Trading Lesson posted on our website.

Thanks for reading
Millennium-Traders.Com]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 17:57:41 -0400 49889 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=49358

Daily Market Commentary for April 16, 2008 from

Crude Oil continues to surge higher striking an intraday high of $114.95 a barrel. Crude Oil Futures surpassed $115 for first time ever on supply concerns after Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil inventories

At the closing bell on the Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. indices ended the session on the U.S. Markets:

DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) triple digit gain of 256.80 points on the day to end the session at 12,619.27

NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) triple digit gain of 225.57 points to end the session at 9,203.76

NASDAQ gain of 64.07 points for a close at 2,286.04

S&P 500 gain of 30.28 points for a close at 1,364.71

FTSE All-World ex-U.S. gain of 5.37 points to close at 247.17

FTSE RAFI 1000 triple digit gain of 125.23 points to close at 5,496.84

BEL 20 gain of 74.05 points on the day to end the session at 3,863.27

CAC 40 gain of 74.42 points on the day to end the session at 4,855.10

FTSE100 triple digit gain of 139.3 points on the day to end the session at 6,046.20

NIKKEI 225 triple digit gain of 155.5 points on the day to end the session at 13,146.10

News on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today: advanced stocks 2,615; declined stocks 565; unchanged stocks 73; stocks hitting new highs 120; stocks hitting new lows 29. Daily Trading Range and end of day trading results for volatile NYSE stocks traded by active Day Traders today: Flowserve Corporation (NYSE: FLS) gained 4.55 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $112.28, low on the trading day $107.56, for a closing price at $111.85; Agrium Incorporated (NYSE: AGU) gained 8.16 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $87.13, low on the trading day $81.75, for a closing price at $87.12; Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) gained 8.86 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $132.36, low on the trading day $125.10, for a closing price at $131.5; Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) gained 1.20 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $30.34, low on the trading day $28.49, for a closing price at $29.01; Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (NYSE: MBT) shed 7.51 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $77.61, low on the trading day $70.09, for a closing price at $70.52; Wolverine World Wide Incorporated (NYSE: WWW) shed 2.41 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $31.21, low on the trading day $27.60, for a closing price at $27.70; Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) gained 11.76 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $122.72, low on the trading day $110.63, for a closing price at $120.34; Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) shed 0.26 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $124.83, low on the trading day $120.46, for a closing price at $122.84; Transocean, Incorporated (NYSE: RIG) gained 3.47 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $153.08, low on the trading day $147.38, for a closing price at $152.77; CF Industries Holdings, Incorporated (NYSE: CF) gained 8.55 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $151.64, low on the trading day $144.30, for a closing price at $151.42; Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Incorporated (NYSE: POT) gained 13.85 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $199.05, low on the trading day $191.10, for a closing price at $198.26.

News on the NASDAQ today: advanced stocks 2,142; declined stocks 795; unchanged stocks 145; stocks hitting new highs 41; stocks hitting new lows 100. Trading range and end of day trading results for volatile NASDAQ stocks traded by active Day Traders today: Pozen, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: POZN) gained 3.07 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $14.85, low on the trading day $12.90, closing price $13.60; Intuitive Surgical, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: ISRG) gained 6.19 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $346.55, low on the trading day $339.13, closing price $345.99; Research In Motion Limited (NasdaqGS: RIMM) gained 5.95 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $120.86, low on the trading day $117.45, closing price $121.60; Baidu.com, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: BIDU) gained 30.62 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $319.75, low on the trading day $290.65, closing price $319.00; Google Incorporated (NasdaqGS: GOOG) gained 10.63 points on the trading day, high on the trading day $458.28, low on the trading day $441.00, closing price $457.47.

News on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) today: advanced stocks 860; declined stocks 351; unchanged stocks 88; stocks hitting new highs 38; stocks hitting new lows 23.

President Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet L. Yellen commented today: Bear Stearns failure would have worsened market turmoil; longer-run inflation expectations well-behaved; Fed cannot be `complacent' about inflation; inflation likely to moderate over next few years; other countries may suffer from U.S. slowdown; expects trade to remain strong, but there are risks; strong global economy, Dollar decline have helped exports; Foreign Trade is `a bright spot';
credit less available for households, businesses; notes Fed's work risks eroding inflation credibility; housing likely a `major' drag on economy into 2009; business spending could slow in 2008 as economy softens; stock declines, commodity prices weighing on consumer; consumption, business invest have slowed `markedly'; Fed must be prepared to `act in a timely manner'; economic prospects remain uncertain; current interest rate at accommodative level; monetary policy, fiscal stimulus to boost growth; economy has stalled, could contract in 1st half 2008; inflation is 'certainly a problem'; food, energy taking 'real toll' on U.S. households; tax stimulus to 'kick in' and improve U.S. economy in 2H; European countries see own economies `pretty strong'; financial conditions bit more stable than at last Fed meeting; 'not ruling out' recession in second half of year.

President Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Charles I. Plosser comment: Crisis is lesson on importance of education; speech doesn't discuss monetary policy, economy outlook; Fed's actions met mandate for financial stability; crisis is lesson on importance of education; cautions against reworking regulation too soon; economy going to feel `very sluggish' near-term; near-term growth prospects remain `weak'; U.S. economy `has slowed dramatically'; Crude Oil price `extraordinarily high'; Fed's Job to preserve marketplace function; `complicated environment' challenging for Fed; inflation concern hasn't gone away.

Input costs up; smaller rises in selling prices; labor markets described as weakening; lending standards tightened, loan demand down; consumer spending seen softening in most of U.S.

Department Of Energy: U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles fell 2.3 Million Barrels at 313.7 Million Barrels; U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles fell 2.3 Million Barrels in the week compared to expectations of an increase of 1.7 Million Barrels; U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles fell 5.5 Million Barrels in the week compared to expectations of a decrease by 1.7 Million Barrels; U.S. Distillate Stockpiles increased by 100,000 Barrels in the week compared to expectations of an increase of 1.5 Million Barrels; U.S. Refineries ran at capacity of 81.4% compared to expectations of an increase by 0.7 points at 83.7%.

Building Permits fell by 5.8% to 927,000 Rate in March; February Housing Starts revised down 0.7% from a drop by 0.6%.

U.S. March Consumer Prices increased by 0.3% compared to consensus by an increase by 0.3%; U.S. March CPI Ex-Food & Energy increased by 0.2% compared to consensus by an increase by 0.2%; U.S. March CPI Unrounded increased by 0.343%; U.S. March CPI Unrounded Core increased by 0.152%; U.S. March CPI Energy Prices increased by 1.9%; U.S. March CPI Food Prices increased by 0.2%; U.S. Real Average Weekly Earnings increased by 0.2% during March.

Commodities Markets
Energy Sector:
Light Crude (NYM) gained $0.44 on the day to close at $114.23 a barrel ($US per bbl.); Heating Oil (NYM) gained $0.07 on the day to close at $3.23 a gallon ($US per gal.); Natural Gas (NYM) gained $0.04 on the day to close at $10.33 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.); Unleaded Gas (NYM) gained $0.04 on the day to close at $2.92 a gallon ($US per gal.).

Metals Markets:
Gold (CMX) gained $16.30 to close at $948.30 ($US per Troy oz.); Silver (CMX) gained $0.48 to close at $18.33 ($US per Troy oz.); Platinum (NYM) gained $50.90 to close at $2,037.30 ($US per Troy oz.) and Copper (CMX) gained $0.10 to close at $3.96 ($US per lb.).

Livestock and Meat Markets (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (CME) shed 0.05 to close at 74.05; Pork Bellies (CME) shed 1.95 to close at 78.00; Live Cattle (CME) gained 0.13 to close at 91.70; Feeder Cattle (CME) shed 0.18 to close at 107.10.

Other Commodities (cents per bu.):
Corn (CBT) shed 2.50 to close the session at 617.00 and Soybeans (CBT) shed 36.00 to close the session at 1,361.00.

Bonds were higher across the board today:
2 year bond shed 7/32 at 99 18/32 with a Yield of 1.97, Yield Change +0.11; 5 year bond shed 16/32 to close at 98 18/32 with a Yield of 2.81, Yield Change +0.12; 10 year bond shed 19/32 to close at 98 18/32 with a Yield of 3.67, Yield Change +0.07; the 30 year bond shed 1 2/32 to close at 97 2/32 on the day with a Yield of 4.50, Yield Change +0.06.

The e-mini Dow $5 ended the commodity session today at 12,622 with a gain of 268 points on the trading session. Futures Traders should review workshops available at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). Educational in-person seminars schedules available on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) website.

The end of day results for the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) which is comprised of the total Exchange Volume for Futures and Options (EVFO) including Electronic, Open Auction, Cash Exchange, Wholesale and Cleared Only ended the day at 3,455,548; Open Interest for Futures gained 79,754 points to close at 9,439,747; the Open Interest for Options gained 39,150 points to close at 9,165,146 and the Cleared Only gained 5 points to close at 30,011 for a total Open Interest on the day of 18,634,904 for a total Change on the day with a gain of 118,902 points.

Monitor scheduled economic data every market morning by viewing the Daily Market Report from Millennium-Traders, free access to visitors on our website.



Thanks for reading]]> Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:21:35 -0400 49358 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=48650 By Michael Brush
April 02, 2008

Gold's much-heralded climb above $1,000 an ounce was pretty short-lived. Gold's long-term ascent won't be.

With gold now trading closer to $900, this is a great time to load up on more exposure to bullion, which is only taking a breather before heading to $1,500 an ounce and higher.

That's the view of two gold gurus who have been correctly calling bullish advances in the yellow metal for years, most recently predicting the move to $1,000 an ounce. That was in November, when it seemed like an audacious forecast.

With their forecast proved correct -- if briefly -- they're not backing off. "There is lot more upside for gold," says Thomas Winmill, who manages the Midas Fund (MIDSX), one of the top-performing precious metals funds, with a three-year average annual return of 41.6%. Winmill thinks gold could see $1,500 in 12 to 18 months.

Frank Holmes, who manages the second-best-performing gold fund this year, U.S. Global Investors Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX), sees bullion going to $1,500 to $2,000 an ounce in the next leg up. He's not offering a time frame for that target.

Like Winmill, Holmes is worth listening to because his precious metals fund is also consistently one of the top performers. His Gold and Precious Metals Fund is up 40.1% a year over the past three years. Their funds do 6 to 7 percentage points a year better than the average for their peers.

How gold goes 50% higher

If they are right about the move up to $1,500, that should drive some of their favourite gold and silver stocks significantly higher over the next year or two. Here's the short list: Goldcorp (G.TO), Kinross Gold (K.TO), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX.N), Pan American Silver (PAAS.O) and Silver Wheaton (SLW.TO).

Another way to go, of course, is to simply buy shares of their funds.

Here's a look at why they think gold will see $1,500 within a year or so.

Reason No. 1: The US dollar's value is declining. "Gold is attractive as a safe haven when the (US) dollar is declining," says Holmes. But why will the greenback continue to weaken? Above all, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been slashing interest rates dramatically, and it may reduce them even more. This makes investors move money to other countries -- especially emerging-market economies that have higher interest rates and higher growth rates. As investors move away from U.S. assets, they sell the dollar and push it down. And they buy other currencies, pushing them up against the dollar.

Investors are also losing confidence in the U.S. economy and U.S.-based investments because of the growing federal deficit, the subprime mess and concerns about the Fed's new role in bailing out investment banks exposed to too much subprime debt.

Reason No. 2: More U.S. inflation on the way. To see where inflation is headed, just take a peek upstream in the production process, says Winmill. Prices on intermediate goods -- or stuff that is midway through production -- advanced 8.8% during the 12 months through the end of February. Prices on early-stage "crude" goods were up 24%, according to producer price index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). "I see those price increases coming into the economy," says Winmill. "That is inflation in the pipeline." Prices on finished goods gained 6.4% in the same time frame.

Consumers, of course, are already aware that prices for food and gasoline have gone up. But as inflation persists, they'll hit a pivotal point in their thinking, when they switch to expecting prices to continue climbing. "That will trigger a psychology of investing in gold as a place to hang on in an inflationary environment," believes Winmill.

Reason No. 3: Investors will seek greater safety. Inflation is already so high that investors are losing money in traditional "safe" investments like U.S. government bonds. Consumer prices are advancing by about 4% a year, according to the BLS, while two-year U.S. Treasury bonds are yielding around 1.6%. So investors who now buy two-year government bonds will be losing 2.4% of their money per year. If the Fed lowers rates even more and inflation advances, the negative returns on government bonds will only widen.

"Historically this has been very good for any kind of hard asset, and particularly gold," says Winmill. "In a negative interest rate environment you don't want to hold bonds because you lose purchasing power." Winmill sees plenty of room for a shift in the flow of investing dollars toward gold, because only a minuscule amount of money in managed accounts is dedicated to investments in commodities.

Meanwhile, people continue to lose lots of money on investments like real estate and debt instruments backed by subprime mortgages -- which will keep scaring them into buying perceived safe assets like gold. "There is massive deflation in real estate and financial assets, and gold has traditionally done well when there are concerns about deflation," says Holmes.

Reason No. 4: Oil is getting pricier. Holmes points out that that over the past five years, gold and oil prices have moved in sync 90% of the time. The reason: When oil-producing countries take in more money because oil prices go up, they diversify by investing in gold. Typically, this creates a 10-to-1 relationship between the price of an ounce of gold and a barrel of oil. Thus $1,000 gold makes sense when a barrel of oil is $100. But that ratio can jump to 15 to 1 when geopolitical turmoil drives other investors to the safety of gold, says Holmes.

He thinks oil could trade as high as $125-$130 a barrel this year because of a basic imbalance between demand from emerging economies and short supply due to a lull in exploration investments during the 1990s, when oil prices were much lower. "If oil were to run to $125 a barrel because of a geopolitical event, gold would easily go to $1,500 an ounce," says Holmes.

Reason No. 5: Gold should follow other commodities. Since so many other metals, including copper and oil, have smashed their inflation-adjusted price records, why shouldn't gold follow, asks Holmes. If it does break through its inflation-adjusted high, set in 1980, it would trade north of $2,000 an ounce.

Here's a closer look at the five precious metals plays that should benefit from a spike in the price of gold to $1,500 an ounce.

Goldcorp

Both Winmill and Holmes count the Vancouver, B.C.-based Goldcorp among their favourites. Winmill likes it because it is the fastest-growing low-cost producer among "senior" mining companies, or those that have producing mines.

The company expects 50% growth in gold production over next five years, driven by development of two promising Mexican projects called Peñasquito and Los Filos, and expansion of its Red Lake mine in Ontario (180 kilometres north of Dryden). Factoring in proceeds from the sale of mining byproducts like zinc and copper, the company should produce gold at $250 an ounce for the next five years, says Winmill.

Goldcorp is relatively safe because its holdings are in politically stable North American countries. It also has no insurance in the form of advance sales of gold meant to protect against a price decline. That's good for investors if gold goes to $1,500 an ounce, because they will get the full benefit of the price increase.

Kinross Gold

Like Goldcorp, Kinross Gold is a low-cost producer about to see rapid growth, which is why it places high on Winmill's list of favourite gold stocks. New projects in Brazil, Russia and Washington state should help increase production by 60% in 2009, compared to last year. Gold production costs (factoring in proceeds from the sale of silver, considered a byproduct of gold mining) should fall to $335 an ounce or less. One risk: The Kinross project in Russia could face interference or even a takeover by the Russian government.

"The operations in Russia come on line in the second quarter, and that is usually when the Russians make their move," says Winmill.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold

The world's largest producer of molybdenum and one of the largest producers of copper, Freeport-McMoRan also has an estimated 41 million ounces in gold and 231 million ounces of silver reserves. That makes it one of the bigger players in the precious metals space.

Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has the largest single gold reserve in the world. Freeport-McMoRan's stock still looks cheap, despite healthy gains in the last year. It trades for about 7.1 times expected 2009 earnings, compared with 15.4 times 2009 earnings for other large companies that produce both copper and gold, according to Citigroup (C.N) analyst John Hill, who has a buy rating and a $125 price target on the stock.

Two silver plays

Because silver will move up in price for the same reasons that bullion does, our two gold gurus put two silver producers at the top of the list of their favourite precious metals plays.

Winmill likes Pan American Silver, which he says looks cheap considering that the company expects production to increase by 14% to 19.5 million ounces this year. Bear Stearns (BSC.N) analyst Michael Dudas thinks production could advance to 25 million ounces by 2009 -- one reason he has a $40 price target on the stock.

Holmes likes Silver Wheaton, which makes money by purchasing silver from miners in long-term contracts and then reselling it. The company has contracts to purchase silver for about $3.90 an ounce, according to Morningstar analyst Vahid Fathi. That looks pretty good given that a move in gold to $1,500 suggests silver would sell for $30 an ounce.

At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares of companies mentioned in this column.]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:53:18 -0400 48650 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47592 Oil Prices Fall to Near $100 a Barrel As Stronger US Dollar Prompts Selling

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell to hover above $100 a barrel Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar made energy futures less attractive to investors.

The greenback's advance Monday made dollar-denominated oil lose some of its recent appeal to investors.

Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar. Now that the dollar is rising, the effect is reversing.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 57 cents to $100.29 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell 98 cents to settle at $100.86 a barrel on Monday.

The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.

Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.

"It's quite possible for the conditions that have pushed oil prices higher to be re-established," said David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "U.S. interest rates are low and they will be cut further. In this situation it's possible we'll see renewed vulnerability of the U.S. dollar at some point."

But there is an opposing school of thought that argues prices have risen far higher than can be justified by the oil market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals. These analysts believe prices will fall soon and sharply -- regardless of what happens to the dollar.

"One of the things that may count against oil somewhat is the fact that we're now entering into a sort of lower demand part of the year, and they will see some inventory building occurring," Moore added.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures lost 0.96 cent to $2.9535 a gallon while gasoline prices rose 5.8 cents to $2.6470 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 1.6 cents to $9.345 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude fell 50 cents to $99.36 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange]]> Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:18:09 -0400 47592 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47492 Oil Prices Drop More Than $1 Amid Concerns a Slowing US Economy Will Cut Crude Demand

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel Monday as traders worried that the flagging U.S. economy would cause oil demand to soften.

Oil's sharp decline started last week. Crude futures started plunging after the U.S. Federal Reserve-backed sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. created fears of deeper economic problems. Prices dropped around 10 percent during the shortened trading week from a trading record of $111.80 hit last Monday.

"The collapse of Bear Stearns has caused investors to focus more on how a recession in the U.S. would cut oil demand," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Today we're seeing some pullback and some profit taking too."

Light, sweet crude for May delivery dropped $1.81 to $100.03 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore.

The contract on Thursday fell 70 cents to settle at $101.84 a barrel. The market was closed for Good Friday.

Shum said oil's price swoon may not last for long.

"The U.S. economic troubles on the one hand would undermine oil prices ... but so long as the U.S. dollar remains weak, there will be support for oil prices as commodities like oil and gold as these are seen as a hedge against the falling dollar," Shum said.

"It's a tug of war, and oil pricing has not yet collapsed, it has simply pulled back," he said.

Most investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several more times this year, moves that are sure to put new pressure on the dollar. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the greenback, driving investors to commodities such as oil that they view as a hedge against inflation. A lower dollar also makes oil less expensive to overseas investors -- a trend that reverses when the dollar strengthens.

Prices were pressured when the Labor Department said Thursday the number of people filing for unemployment benefits jumped by 22,000 last week, much more than expected. A sharp slowdown in the economy could reduce demand for oil and gasoline.

On Wednesday, the Energy Department said gasoline demand dropped by 1 percent last week.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures lost 1.22 cents to $2.965 a gallon while gasoline prices fell 1.01 cents to $2.5950 a gallon. Natural gas futures added 0.1 cent to $9.066 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude futures fell $1.31 to $99.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.]]> Mon, 24 Mar 2008 04:02:50 -0400 47492 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47233 Gold falls to 1-month lows as funds cash in

SINGAPORE - Gold dropped more than 2 percent to its lowest level in a month on Thursday amid a broad-based sell off in commodities and as funds cashed in after pushing the metal to a record above $1,000 an ounce this week.

Platinum, palladium and silver also dropped. New York's COMEX gold futures fell more than 3 percent to hit their lowest in more than four weeks, while Shanghai futures sank by their 5 percent limit.

Gold <XAU=> hit an intraday high of $943 an ounce before changing course and tumbled to as low as $920.30 an ounce, down from $944.20/945.00 late in New York on Wednesday and off Monday's record high of $1,030.80 an ounce.

"We have to see whether the funds will continue selling. If they do, of course there is a possibility that it will go down and test $900," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

A smaller-than-expected U.S. interest rate cut was an excuse for the funds to exit gold and the absence of Japanese speculators also exaggerated movements, said Leung.

Gold tumbled 6 percent on Wednesday, its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly two years as cash-rich funds exited commodities, leading to declines in oil CLc1, base metals and agricultural products. Trading was thin on Thursday as Tokyo Commodity Exchange was closed for a national holiday.

"It is most probably liquidation on margin calls. It looks like players are exiting the market after gold hit $1,030 level and there's no reason for physical buyers to buy at high levels," said a dealer in Singapore.

"Retailers are also starting to cash in. That's why I think the market will still fall for another day. It's hard to say where the support level is, but I think it's going to fall below $900 today," he said.

The U.S. dollar was mixed as persistent credit concerns, huge falls in U.S. bill rates and a sudden reversal in global commodity prices all tugged in different directions. ID:nSYD76686

The Fed brought key interest rates to 2.25 percent on Tuesday after cutting them by 0.75 percent, against market expectations for a 1.0 percent cut.

Gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $12.7 an ounce to $932.9 an ounce, after hitting a low of $915.

"High caution is advised before fresh buying is attempted as the market steps in to a long weekend starting today," Pradeep Unni, analyst at Vision Commodities in Dubai, said in a note.

"The market has yet to show any clear signals of market bottom. Also strong buying signals haven't been shown by technical indicators that we closely follow," said Unni, who pegged key support at $898 an ounce.

A decline in global economic growth in 2008-09 will mostly dampen demand and prices for commodities if the slowdown is substantial, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

Spot platinum fell to $1,880/1,885 an ounce from $1,900/1,910 -- off a record high of $2,290 hit on March 4.

Silver dropped to $17.99/18.04 an ounce from $18.38/18.43 an ounce. Spot palladium fell to $444/451 an ounce from $455/460 an ounce.

The most active June contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 5 percent to 214.55 yuan a kilogram, tracking declines in cash gold.

Precious metals prices at 11:12 EDT

Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover

Spot Gold 932.00 -11.50 -1.22 11.93

Spot Silver 18.01 -0.32 -1.75 21.94

Spot Platinum 1880.00 -20.00 -1.05 23.68

Spot Palladium 445.00 -10.00 -2.20 20.92

Euro/Dollar 1.5576

Dollar/Yen 99.12

TOCOM prices in yen per gram, except TOCOM silver which is priced in yen per 10 grams. Spot prices in $ per ounce.]]> Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:28:17 -0400 47233 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47150
Dear Reader,

Those of us who believe our lying eyes instead of their cheating heart (see Part 3 of my D Word series) fully understand the depression concept. What does a severe economic downturn mean to the commodity sector? Let’s go there.

The following question from IDE reader Linda sums it up nicely:

Love your articles. No BS spin which the media continually gives us. If we really go into a depression, I believe we are rapidly heading that way, same as Japan, same reasons. What will happen to the price of Gold and Silver? Will they go down too? Your sentiments greatly appreciated.

Thank you, Linda. We are currently in a depression unless the feds are successful in changing what the definition of what one “is.” They will undoubtedly try. Our current fiat system is so fragile that such tomfoolery is necessary. If our economy were built on production, savings, honest markets, and real money,the story would be different. Those days are gone.

Even my esteemed buddy, Andy Gordon, theorizes we’re now in a commodity bubble. Every time commodities show a bit of inertia, the bubble prognosticators venture forth en masse. The last time this transpired, about a year ago, I wrote a three-part series entitled “Are We in a Commodity Bubble?” (click here for Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3). It certainly didn’t turn out to be one then, as the CRB has since taken flight. Why aren’t we in a commodity bubble presently?

If you’ve read my series on fiat money, you clearly understand the end results of excess monetary printing. The Fed loves to print money. They are inflators by charter. Most people would do the same if they could generate trillions in profits. It’s a cushy franchise.

This ocean of money has to go somewhere! Since 1982, it has predominately gone into financial assets like stocks and bonds. They are also called “paper assets.” A soaring stock market has been the result of too much funny money. A real estate bubble has as well. Everyone is happy when their apparent net worth is flying high. Too bad it isn’t that simple. If it were, we could all become wealthy via money printing.

It is no different than the guy who just received a five-percent raise and is elated. Unfortunately, his living standard has declined by more than that amount due to Fed practices. Fiat money appeals to the something-for-nothing crowd. Politicians get an open season.

Hot money always goes somewhere. Those closest to the money spigot are the primary beneficiaries. That is the beauty of the present system for cronies within the axis of weasels. It’s a juicy trough.

Everyone gets to eat cake (rice cakes, though, because wheat and eggs are too expensive).

Can hot money flow into commodities? Yes, absolutely it can. Hot money can flow into tulip bulbs, Louisiana land, tech stocks, or condos. It doesn’t break my heart that it’s now finding a few tangible assets.

You cannot talk about bubbles without recognizing the biggest bubble in world history. I’m speaking of the U.S. dollar. It is held in unfathomable quantities across the globe. It’s been the world’s reserve currency since 1944. Nobody across the globe could get enough of them. Until now. Abuses have turned the tide.

Honest money advocates call the overseas bucks “bigfloat.” They are out and about, but they will be prevented from coming home to roost. The suckers took them and they’ll have to live with them. They will not be allowed to buy up what little productivity the U.S. still has.

Ever hear the expression regarding banks and debts? If you owe the bank a significant amount of money, you have a problem. If you owe the bank a ton of money, they have a problem. The U.S. owes foreigners and foreign governments trillions of dollars. Methinks bigfloat ain’t coming home.

It’s called exchange and capital controls. Stay tuned.

Is there some hot money from hedge funds coming into commodities? Yes, certainly. Does that mean that commodities are in a bubble that’s going to pop? This one might deflate to a degree but it’s not likely to pop.

Tangible assets, commodities included, are the antidote to fiat excesses. Money is moving into them, especially gold and silver, because they serve as historic protections against government abuses. Does that sound like a bubble or a growth industry to you?

The U.S.-centered depression is a direct result of ongoing Federal Reserve policies. They placed zero restraints on their greedy elitist buddies. Bear Stearns is a perfect example with their current bailout. Alan Greenspan doesn’t wear Coke-bottle glasses because he has keen economic vision. He was the madam of a whorehouse too big even for Texas. The new guy still wears a training bra.

Monetary abuses drive gold and silver bull markets. These clowns are now attempting to ramp up the monetary abuses in order to put out a fire caused by monetary abuses. Hello!

We’ll see some ongoing froth in commodities. They will also be subject to official dampening. Still, the commodity bull market isn’t going away any time soon.

Looks like another series is under way.

Invest Resourcefully,

Rusty

More commodities news/articles here: http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showforum=629]]> Wed, 19 Mar 2008 06:33:39 -0400 47150 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47076 Oil Rebounds As Investors Follow Wall Street Higher and Anticipate an Interest Rate Cut

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices rebounded Tuesday as a rally on Wall Street and the prospect of a large interest rate cut drew buyers back to the futures market.

Retail gas prices, meanwhile, slipped slightly for the second day in a row, while diesel prices rose further above $4 a gallon.

Oil advanced as a rally in the stock market gave investors hope that the economy will weather the credit market problems that forced the Federal Reserve-backed sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Dow Jones industrial average was boosted by better than expected earnings from Bear Stearns competitors Lehman Brothers Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Energy investors often view movements in equities markets as a proxy for the economy's health.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose $1.90 to $107.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Monday, oil prices plunged by $4.53 a barrel on concerns that Bear's collapse was a sign of deeper economic problems. That drop marked a rare departure for oil traders from the dollar-driven buying that has sent crude to record levels.

Also boosting oil prices Tuesday were expectations that the Fed will aggressively cut the key federal funds rate Tuesday afternoon as it tries to stave off a severe economic crisis. In the past several months, rate cuts have fed oil price rallies as investors buy crude futures to hedge against inflation and the falling dollar. Also, oil futures are priced in dollars, which makes them cheaper for foreign investors as the greenback falls.

"If recent history is a guide, a (1 percentage) point reduction by the Fed (Tuesday) could result in oil rising to the $114 to $116 range over the course of the next weeks," said Larry Chorn, chief economist at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., in a research note.

However, a smaller rate cut could send oil prices lower; many analysts believe oil investors are banking on a full percentage point cut.

Steve Bellino, senior vice president for energy at MF Global LLC, agrees with many other analysts who feel oil prices aren't supported by the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals, but thinks oil's Monday swoon was just a correction in a bull market rather than a sign market sentiment is turning.

"The ... market's run is not done yet," Bellino said.

That could be bad news for consumers. Gas prices followed oil futures to a series of records last week, though the national average price of a gallon of gas slid 0.3 cent to $3.28 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices are 73 cents higher than a year ago, and the Energy Department expects gas to peak near $3.50 a gallon in the spring as suppliers stock up before peak summer driving season. Some analysts see prices rising even higher, to $3.75 or $4 a gallon.

Gas prices are combining with high food prices and a downturn in the housing market to limit consumers' ability to spend, cutting retail sales, and have boosted prices of everything else. But crude's surge has also sent diesel and jet fuel prices climbing, hurting trucking firms and pushing airlines to consider mergers or steep capacity cuts.

Diesel rose 1.3 cents to a new record national average of $4.015 a gallon Tuesday. Delta Air Lines on Tuesday offered buyouts to 30,000 employees, about half its work force, and said it will cut domestic capacity 5 percent this year to cope with soaring fuel prices.

Other energy futures also rose Tuesday. April heating oil futures rose 1.91 cents to $3.0875 a gallon while April gasoline futures rose 7.24 cents to $2.5766 a gallon. April natural gas futures jumped 17.6 cents to $9.276 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, May Brent crude futures rose $2.48 to $104.23 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 13:00:35 -0400 47076 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=47030
U.S. crude rose 52 cents to $106.20 a barrel by 0043 GMT, after sliding $4.53 or 4.11 percent in its worst single day percentage decline in more than seven months to settle at $105.68.

London Brent crude was 55 cents higher at $102.30 a barrel.

World financial bourses tailspinned on Monday after JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) stepped in to rescue the ailing investment bank Bear Stearns (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for a bargain buy of $2 a share.

"The big sell-off you saw in the previous session was triggered by financial concerns...there was also profit taking ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, which expanded lending to securities firms for the first time since the Great Depression in an attempt to shore up confidence, will meet on Wednesday to decide on an interest rate cut aimed at preventing a meltdown of the financial system.

"What the Fed does will impact the value of the U.S. dollar...as the dollar weakens there will be a scramble for hard assets like oil and commodities like gold," Ritterbusch said.

Oil traded in a wide range on Monday between a record high of $111.80 to as low at $103.23 a barrel as investment funds sold off holdings, while gold dropped to $996.30/997.10 per ounce after hitting a historical high of $1,030.80 an ounce in the previous session.

Oil prices could come under further pressure, analysts said, as refined products prices have fallen sharply, making it less profitable for refiners to turn oil into fuel.

U.S. RBOB gasoline futures crashed down 18.52 cents or 6.89 percent to settle at $2.5042 a gallon, dragging the price of RBOB gasoline below that of crude oil for the first time as U.S. gasoline stockpiles have risen to 15-year highs.

"The weakness in the gasoline market will weigh on the entire barrel," Ritterbusch said.

Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have repeatedly said high oil prices are not related to fundamentals, but are the result of speculation and the U.S. dollar's fall.

News Archive:

Oil Prices Tumble On Demand Worries

Oil Hits Record Over $111 A Barrel As Dollar Slumps

Oil Rises To New Record As Dollar Drops]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 03:25:07 -0400 47030 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=46992

NEW YORK : World oil prices tumbled on Monday after briefly hitting new highs near 112 dollars a barrel as traders worried that the fallout from rising financial market turmoil will curb energy demand.

New York's main oil contract, light sweet crude for delivery in April, plunged 4.53 dollars to close at 105.68 dollars. Earlier it had hit a record high of 111.80 dollars.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for May delivery settled 4.45 dollars lower at 101.75 dollars per barrel.

Earlier on Monday, oil prices climbed as financial markets were rocked by news of the collapse and Federal Reserve-guaranteed sale of Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest investment bank in the United States, to rival JPMorgan Chase.

An emergency rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, made in a rare Sunday announcement, only added to the sense of crisis, analysts said.

In the wake of the news, the European single currency soared to a record high point of 1.5905 dollars in Asian trade on Monday. In turn, that helped gold prices to new heights above 1,032 dollars per ounce in London.

But the extraordinary actions by the Fed heightened alarm about the fragility of the financial system and raised speculation about which large bank could be next to fail in the global credit squeeze.

"The rescue buyout of Bear Stearns and the Fed cutting the discount rate over the weekend has stirred up credit crisis concerns and that seems to be cutting across all markets," said Mike Fitzpatrick at MF Global.

"The market could become even more vulnerable to selling due to the deteriorating economic conditions, as well," he said.

Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading said that the weekend news "means more flight to safety buying" and pointed out that the Fed was expected to cut its key federal funds rate at a meeting on Tuesday.

"Oil's fate will then come down to the perception of the current state of the crisis," he said. If the stock market rebounds, "then oil could come back down to Earth."

The dwindling value of the US currency encourages demand for dollar-priced oil because it becomes cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies, while investors also seek to guard against risks to higher inflation.

In the near term, dealers said, oil prices are likely to trend higher with no relief seen for the US currency as investors' worries about the health of the US financial system were exacerbated by the collapse of Bear Stearns.

The US Federal Reserve said Sunday it was cutting by a quarter-point to 3.25 percent its primary credit rate, which is offered at the Fed's discount window for institutions "in sound condition."

JPMorgan Chase announced on Sunday it would acquire Bear Stearns for two dollars a share, valuing the company at about 236 million dollars, just a fraction of its worth a week ago.

The Fed-backed acquisition came as Bear Stearns teetered on bankruptcy after suffering multibillion-dollar losses tied to soured US mortgage-related investments after the collapse of the sub-prime, or high-risk, mortgage sector. - AFP/de

More related news:
Oil Hits Record Over $111 A Barrel As Dollar Slumps
Oil Rises To New Record As Dollar Drops
Gas, Diesel Rocket To New Records
Crude Surges To Record $111 As Dollar Slides
]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 16:51:30 -0400 46992 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=46945
Crude for April delivery was up 95 cents at $111.16 a barrel by 10:35 p.m. EDT, after hitting $111.42 earlier. May London Brent crude was 55 cents higher at $106.75 a barrel.

"The recent oil prices have been swayed by the currency moves, including this latest rally to a record," said Tony Nunan, risk management executive at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi. "The dollar weakness is the factor at the moment."

The dollar tumbled below 96 yen on Monday to a 13-year low, while the euro surged more than 1 percent to a record above $1.59 after JPMorgan Chase said it would acquire Bear Stearns for a fraction of its book value.

Fears that the credit crisis could claim more high-profile victims were underscored by the Fed cutting its discount rate to 3.25 percent from 3.5 percent effective immediately, putting that rate just a quarter point above the interbank overnight federal funds rate -- the Fed's primary policy tool.

U.S. Fed policy-makers are set to meet on Tuesday and are widely expected to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by up to a full-point to try to put a floor under an economy many believe is already in the throes of recession.

Crude oil prices have jumped about 16 percent so far this year in part because of a steep decline in the U.S. dollar -- a factor that has supported the nominal value of all commodities priced in the currency.

Oil analysts have said they expect oil's inverse relationship with the dollar to last until there are significant signs that underlying commodities demand is eroding because of the U.S. economic slowdown.

Adding support to energy markets, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has shrugged off calls for more supply.

Oil markets are rising due to speculation and the U.S. dollar's fall, not on a lack of petroleum production, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Sunday, the official Algerian news agency APS reported.

More News: http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showforum=411]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 03:06:36 -0400 46945