Dreamteammoney.com | Crude Oil, Precious Metal, Gold, Silver, Commodities and Futures A comprehensive forum for discussing futures and commodities trading; includes energies, light sweet crude, financials, grains, indices, meats, metals, softs, quotes, charts, opinions, polls, book store, crop weather, and news. http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php Sat, 04 Feb 2012 04:11:38 -0500 1440 The Bullion Report For February 1, 2012: To The Moon Alice http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=142691
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So far in 2012 precious metal prices have risen faster than most other investment sectors. While a rising trend requires fresh buyers to maintain momentum, precious metals seem poised to entertain that type of thrust from a variety of sources. Chief among stimulants for increased precious metal investment demand is monetary policy. Since the global economic collapse in 2008, the central banks of the world have aggressively embarked on an unprecedented policy of easier money. Even the quantitative easing efforts by the Federal Reserve serve to accomplish this, but all also have the effect of increasing the supply of fiat money. While accepted as suitable policies to stimulate the global economy, these methods also have the power to inflate.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 trillion dollars have been created as a result of these efforts. Yet, the global financial markets continue to not respond with solid growth. It is only a matter of time before those same policies erupt in inflationary forces.

A good example of this was when metals received an assist in their ability to attract buyers following the Fed’s press conference last week. During that conference, Ben Bernanke gave the nod to low interest rates remaining in force until 2014. Additionally, hints were supplied that provided another Quantitative Easing (QE) plan may be in the works. As a result, metal prices soared, with gold gaining $68 for the week. With that in mind, just think: with Chinese buyers celebrating New Year physical buying was less active. What might happen once they return?

The monetary policies being employed by the Fed are viewed by the financial community as accommodative and generally supportive for higher commodity values, including precious metals. Announcing their intention to extend the time frame through which the Fed plans to keep interest rates at record lows provides traders with a renewed incentive to invest in commodities. Low interest rates also apply pressure on the US dollar relative to other currency exchange rates. A weaker dollar tends to support higher commodity prices, as well as generally create a “risk on” atmosphere, not only for commodities but other assets that benefit from the promise of better returns.

Economic indicators suggest that the US economy is showing constructive signs. Not that the economy is booming, but suggestive of a positive trend that may be “better than expected.” The 2011 4th quarter GNP growth was reported to be running at 2.8%, the highest since mid-2010. Housing data, typically a very influential component of the US economy, has been running more favorably than previously predicted. While unemployment is still a major issue, especially true with the presidential election campaign about to shift into high gear, there have even been a few encouraging signs seen among the jobless numbers. All in all, the US economy shows resilience and improvement rather than signals of a double dip recession on the horizon.

At the same time the Euro zone crisis seems to be tapering off. The extent of the problems with sovereign debt issues have received encouragement from reports that Spain and Italy are actually finding buyers for new bonds.

Now let’s look at China as a factor. As pointed out in a previous article, the Chinese traditionally buy gold as presents for gift-giving in the Lunar New Year. However, gift-giving alone cannot explain the current rise in gold purchases in China. As China doesn’t make public any of its gold trade data, it is difficult to know with exact certainty their increased demand level. Nevertheless, there are hints of steady growth in the amount of gold China has imported from neighboring Hong Kong, based on its released gold figures. According to information garnered from the November 2011 “Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics, Domestic Exports and Re-exports,” China imported 102,779 kilograms of gold from Hong Kong in November 2011, up from October’s 86,299 kilograms.

Participation by speculators is on the rise, represented with an increase in open interest levels for Comex gold. A sizable portion of this new open interest is likely tied to the rebalancing of index funds, but it’s apparent that speculators and hedge funds are viewing precious metals with growing keenness.


Summary

Seeking to control the global economy is a worthwhile endeavor, but the costs are starting to add up. The best laid plans of the central banks can only produce increased inflation, driving the costs of raw materials higher. Additionally, those efforts haven’t been realized and the question of economic health remains, especially among some of the debt-burdened European Union members. Fears of economic collapse remain as embers ready to re-ignite even more demand for gold as a store of value, while the health of the EU remains a question. Put them all together and investors have an environment ripe for precious metals to head higher.


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Thu, 02 Feb 2012 03:44:44 -0500 142691 Share Market Intraday / Positional Tips For Today http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=142521
IDFC (1-2 day-to-Sell): Target - Rs 120, stoploss - Rs 129

HUL (4 days Sell): Target - Rs 367, stoploss - Rs 386

Hero Motokorp (4 days) Buy: Target - Rs 1910, stoploss - Rs 1800

L & T (2-3 day-to-Buy): Target - Rs 1370, stoploss - Rs 1280. Intraday Tips


]]> Tue, 31 Jan 2012 03:23:21 -0500 142521 <![CDATA[The Bullion Report For January 11, 2012: China's Gold Bling]]> http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=141259
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China’s importance to the world economy is demonstrable. The Chinese economy has fueled a lot of global business with annual growth near the 10% range. The current pace of growth has slowed, with many economists now predicting China's rate of real GDP growth will be closer to 5%. This slowdown is no surprise considering the current global economy. The extent of that impact will be felt in reduced demand for commodity related investments, and a slow down of exports, but not so for gold. Since the onset of the current economic slowdown, the Chinese have displayed an increased appetite for the yellow metal, both for jewelry and as an investment.

To appreciate the potential impact of gold demand in China consider the World Gold Council (WGC) reporting that, "demand for gold bars and coins in China expanded by 24 percent from a year earlier." Chinese gold jewelry demand increased by 13 percent to where China has now overtaken India as the world’s largest for gold jewelry. The WGC anticipates, "strong demand in investment and jewelry will drive China's total gold demand to 750 tons this year." Additionally, the Chinese government is thought to be increasing their gold holdings as they grow cautious of the increasing risks in foreign exchange stemming from international liquidity problems as countries turn to more aggressive monetary easing.(1)

In response to increased jewelry demand, retail jewelry chains in China have expanded. Stores are opening new locations in smaller cities to take advantage of that increasing demand, which is fueled by rising income levels. According to Dow Jones, even superstar investor George Soros is getting into the act, buying $40 million worth of shares in the IPO of Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group Ltd. That investment is especially worth noting as Mr. Soros not only is a high profile investor, he has also been attributed with saying gold was the “ultimate asset bubble” nearly two years ago. His investment in Chow Tai Fook shows that Mr. Soros is potentially willing to place a bet on the Chinese demand for gold expanding.

Besides jewelry, the other area where gold purchases have shown an increased involvement by the citizens in China is noted by recent increased investment regulation. During the last week of December China made official the decision to regulate all gold trading through official exchanges in Shanghai. The increased regulation isn’t expected to dampen citizen demand for bullion. Instead it was made in an effort to force unauthorized trading platforms to close. The purpose is to obtain a better handle on safeguarding what has become a major market for investor demand as disposable income levels have risen.

Chinese citizens, for the most part, purchase gold, but are not active traders. Seldom do typical Chinese investors play the short side of the gold market. In fact, in China the gold buy-back businesses see little traffic. Buyers hold the gold they buy as a long term investment. With China experiencing rising incomes and inflation concerns, investment in gold is becoming more widespread among citizens, and according to Hong Kong analysts gold investments will grow.

This increased scrutiny in the gold market is welcomed. The action by the government came about due to requests by Chinese brokerages. They requested tightened oversight of gold exchanges as they grew concerned that gold investors were being exposed to a very volatile gold market and were apt to become caught in dysfunctional markets just as the popularity of precious metals is growing. The new rules are meant to prevent trading anywhere other than on the official exchanges in Shanghai and comes on the heels of a year where prices moved substantially. While the volatility in gold prices continues, unauthorized trading platforms will no longer be legal forums able to proliferate along with the boom in precious metals.

Only a week into the Western New Year the price range in gold has been dramatic, with most of it on the upswing. While the US and other Western nations clean up from their New Year's celebrations, China and other Eastern countries prepare for theirs on January 23 - the Lunar New Year. It is expected that this season will bring increase demand for bullion and jewelry. This is attributed to an increase in disposable income levels, and the belief that gold is a good store of value during difficult times.


Summary

China has been grappling with inflation issues, which should continue to fuel the demand appetite for gold and other precious metals. This paired with increasing geo-political unrest due to potential military conflict with Iran can only benefit the drive for gold investments. Ongoing concerns over a Euro zone collapse add more fuel to the fire. Lured by global volatility, Chinese purchases of physical gold are on the rise, and will likely show resilience in the new year to come.

1. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011...nt_14117585.htm


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Thu, 12 Jan 2012 03:25:12 -0500 141259 Providio’s Daily Futures Market Comment For 01/10/12 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=141177 This week’s light US economic calendar turns attention to GOP primaries and any news coming out of Europe.

Currencies:­­­­ 10Jan What started out as a stronger day across most of the majors faded as the session wore on. The “Commodity Currencies” benefiting most from speculation that Chinese intervention may help spur demand. Volumes are inching their way back to pre-holiday levels.

With the exception of the weaker tone in the Euro, we note the wide consolidation ranges that have been in place since the summer, but these patterns are running out of time. If there is a resolution that emerges on higher Volume, in keeping with traditional technical analysis, the moves could be enormous. Below average Volatility may be telling us that an “uncoiling spring” may be in the offing…

Aussie: 10Jan Testing the pivot/fulcrum nature of the March 200-day Moving Average at 103.55, but still in a wide, symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern in place since August that is bound by 9900-10420. All of our technicals are pointing higher and the market is not yet Overbot. This currency, along with the Canadian, has been highly correlated to the physical commodities’ action.

Seasonal Snapshot: Divergence between all three patterns until mid January: 30yr down, 15 yr up and the 5yr consolidates. After rallying until 22Jan, the 30yr then joins the 5&15 yr in a move down until the end of the month.

British: 10Jan Respecting rising trend line support that forms the lower end of our symmetrical triangle that has been in place since August.

With most tracked US denominated FX contracts lower on the day after the US Jobless number, it seems increasing likely that the Sterling is destined to test support in the 1.5350 area. Most of our signals indicate a broadening weakness with some residual strength stemming from safe-haven to the Euro’s issues.

Additionally, the 200-day Moving Average is falling and the market is still well below that level.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 15&30yr move down until 10Jan followed by choppy consolidation in all three patterns until Feb.

Canadian 10Jan Today’s rally tests the upper end (98.50) of the symmetrical triangle formation that has been in place since August. There has been high correlation to the Aussie$ and physical markets. The 200-day moving average lies well above at 100.55

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr pattern declines precipitously from 08-22Jan. The 5&15yr patterns arrive late to the party (14Jan), but stay longer (28Jan).

Dollar Index: 10Jan Watch the EuroFX, as it seems to be trumping the other major currencies in underpinning the Dollar Index since November. The resulting rising channel is bound by 80.30-83.00. The market is leaning Overbot, but a test of the upper boundary of the channel may be in the offing. 80.00 will continue as strong support, with a new, higher support levels at the obvious 81.00 and also at about 81.30.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns rise until 20Jan. On 24Jan, the 15yr breaks away from the ensuing consolidation and rallies again until the end of the month.

Euro-FX: 10Jan Watch the round pennies on either side of the market for support and resistance. The falling channel in place since late October that is bound by 125.70-130.25. The lower end coincides with the August 2010 low. Oversold somewhat, but not showing signs of turning.

Seasonal Snapshot: A decidedly weak tone until the end of Feb.

Yen: 10Jan The Yen is struggling with the mid November highs. Near-term Momentum seems to have eased off since peaking on Wednesday. Look for a near term test of the 129 support area.

Be careful if the Yen rallies, as intervention has loomed large around the 130.00 level.

12810 shows as strong support.

Seasonal Snapshot: Mild weakness in all three patterns ends 07Jan and strengthens until 23Jan.

Energies: 10Jan Initial support from the possibility of Chinese intervention on weak data wore a bit thin throughout the session. That said, all three Petro markets we track have positively tilting technicals. But the very high correlation to “outside forces” has us concerned. Crude is lagging the Overbot conditions that is presenting the rest of the Petros.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three tracked Petro markets’ are exhibiting a mixed to negative bias until about Jan 10th

Crude: 10Jan Major resistance is still offered at 104.00. Old resistance at 101.75 is offering new support for the time being. Watch the Euro and the Equities for a resumption of highly correlated action.

NatGas: 10Jan Spring-like weather in the upper Midwest keeps the pressure on the market. Watch both Momentum and RSI as these 2 indicators have not been able to seriously shift to a higher dynamic for some time. If they do, it has a good chance of staging a possible reversal rally. A move back to near 3.50 would be necessary to make that a reality.

Of utmost importance, though, is the storage market has not had a sizable draw yet and we’re already into January. If this persists, look for continuing weakness.

Seasonal Snapshot: A mixed historical picture for the next week, but generally negative action until month end.

Equities: 10Jan Light, declining Volume lends some suspicion to today’s rally. Our noted gaps below last week’s lows in S&P and Dow have been filled, but Mar NASDAQ still has a gap open down to 2284 that was left open after the New Year’s Day holiday.

Mar Dow has violated its late Oct highs (12230), whereas the S&P is still capped there (1290) and NASDAQ has some catching up to do (2408). Indicators might point higher, but all three markets we track are historically Overbot... the most since last July. Keep track of the Volatility, which has been Low.

Seasonal Snapshot: S&P is a mixed bag until mid-Jan where a weeklong material downdraft is in place. From that point on, look for a general Trend to higher prices until Feb 1.

The Dow has some modest pressure higher for the next 2-3 days, then enters a negatively biased period until Jan 22.

The NDX Trends modestly higher until Jan 14. At that point all indicators head lower for a week.

Grains: 10Jan South American Weather concerns still weigh on pricing but today’s action was a reversions from yesterday’s rallies. Markets are unlikely to see material new directional bias as Thursday’s USDA report looms. Post-Christmas gaps still exist below the current market prices and should provide a drag on any rising momentum until filled.

Corn: 10Jan Current months were basically unchanged as the market readies itself for Thursday’s USDA report. Today’s action was consolidative with reasonable but lower volume. The Doji day speaks to the day’s directionless action. Positive Momentum continues to wane, but today’s action in RSI reverts back to positive so the reading is mixed. RSI is coming off recent peaks near 87. Volatility is low and falling.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr pattern leads the choppy 15&30yr patterns gently higher until the end of February.

Soybeans: 10Jan Doji day speaks to directionless close. Not an inside day like Corn, but no new highs. Momentum and RSI at cross-purposes. Volatility in Soybeans is near the 1st Standard Deviation higher which is our measure of High. However, it is going sideways at this point. The 200-day Moving average is still falling.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns display a choppy downward bias. The 5yr ends 29Jan; 15yr 01Feb; 30yr 07Feb.

Wheat: 10Jan Like Corn and Soybeans, Wheat’s Momentum and RSI are moving in opposite directions which is again showing mixed signals.

Unlike Soybeans, its Volatility so on the Low side of Average and falling. Its 200-day Moving Average is also falling though.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr pattern displays pronounced weakness until 16Jan, whereas the 15&30 yr patterns’ weakness are less pronounced, but last until the end of Jan.

Interest Rates: 10Jan Both bonds and Tens exhibited further strength as they bounced off lower levels. Bonds rallied off a clear support level at 142. With relative lack of economic data, long-dated Treasuries are directionless but holding at levels that go back several months. No meaningful or sustained weakness. The Bonds and Tens are bumping up against overhead resistance that goes back 3-4 months. Mixed bag technicals muddy the waters.

Both longer dated contracts have held their rising Trend lines that date back to early Oct.

The upshot, however, is that for the past 4 months or so, both have essentially gone sideways with volatility.

Rising trend line support is close to being tested.

Mar Bonds 142-00

Mar 10yr 130-00

Fairly significant support levels remain in place for long-dated instruments

Mar Bonds- 140-00

Mar 10-Yr- 129-00

Mar 5-Yr - 122-16 (untracked)

Mar Bund- 133.30

Seasonal Snapshot: 5, 15 & 30 yr patterns in long-dated maturities’ US Treasury instruments have a short, mild upward bias until Jan 15.

The 5-year then heads generally but modestly lower until mid-Feb.

The 15 and 30 yr patterns head generally sideways until the contract changes in late Feb. However, about Jan 21 or so, there is a relatively sharp, quick downdraft, but that recovers about a week later.

The 2yr has a positive bias until Jan 22, a which point its tendencies vary from modestly to sharply lower.

Metals: 10Jan Gold again failed to make new highs so its recent downtrend remains in place. Its technical picture is mixed, so no real forecast is noted. Copper is deep into the flag/triangle formation. This lessens the odds of a major breakout. Indicators point to lower action at this point. Both Volumes were reasonable but did declines from Friday’s levels at first glance. Check back with tomorrow’s figures.

Gold: 10Jan After a few consolidation sessions, Gold has extended its bounce off our noted rising trend line (1523) going back to Oct 2008... nearly to the dollar. This is casting doubt over the resolution of both our previously noted bear flag formation and our symmetrical triangle pattern: the first projects a move down to 1390; the second down to 1325. That said, while the much talked about 200-day moving average at 1635 is offering resistance on today’s rally, on a longer-term basis, there is evidence of a descending triangle formation, which is bearish. This formation focuses our attention on falling trend line resistance from back to September’s highs at the psychological 1700 area. A sustained break below the horizontal trend line, the triangle’s lower boundary at previous low of 1523 on much higher Volume would lend credence to the formation and ultimately target the 1150 area.

Volume has been rising, but is still muted compared to pre-holiday levels.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 30yr whipsaws down then up during the first two weeks of January, followed by consolidation. The 5&15yr patterns consolidate for the first half of the month, then rally well into Feb.

Copper: 10Jan Our technicals present a confused picture as Trend and Momentum flip back and forth. Our Overbot/Oversold indicator has been middling for a month after getting moderately Oversold. However, the pattern of lower highs and higher lows since late September is still in place and keeps the market in a symmetrical triangle formation, currently bound by 325.00 and 355.00. Watch for a break out on higher Volume for a hint at longer-term direction.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate until year-end. The 15yr turns higher from 04Jan through 13Jan while both the 5 & 30yr consolidate until the end of Jan.

Softs: 10Jan Orange Juice’s (untracked) huge freeze driven rally is a dominant Softs story and may be adding to the bullish sentiment in the Sector. Pay attention tot the individual markets’ dynamics and look for opportunities to take advantage of Overextended situations.

Cocoa also had another huge upside day, but the Sugar and Cotton markets were indecisive.



Cocoa: 10Jan Lack of rain and Nigerian strikes have Cocoa breakout out above the last month of trading ranges. Continued physical quality and supply concerns out of the major supplier Cote d’Ivoire again sparked buying that have bid Cocoa up through Overhead resistance and though the 2300 level. Watch for sudden snapbacks and pay attention to the news flow. Momentum and trend are now firmly positive and RSI is mid level and heading higher. Volatility is off the chart. Be wary if you’re in a new position.

Seasonal Snapshot: General modest lower bias for next week or so then the 2 shorter term patterns point higher until late Feb. Longer term pattern just heads sideways with some volatility.

Coffee: 10Jan March is threatening to test the 230 resistance area. Momentum and RSI reasserting its positive bias. Trend has been positive since turning in mid-Dec. However, Volume is indecisive. An increase would have added validity to today’s material move higher.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5-yr and 15-yr both Trend higher until Jan 13. The 30-yr is just sideways.

Cotton: 10Jan Yesterday’s bearish Hanging Man still sitting out there and today’s action is the same. Momentum is till waning, though the RSI remains quite Overbot and turned modestly higher today. Trend is definitely rising, but Volume dropped materially today. If the OJ rally is dragging the NYBOT markets higher, look for a correction if the OJ runs out of steam. 96.50 will function as a support level. USDA reports on Thursday AM will be closely watched. Volatility is still on the Low side for taking new long side Option positions.

Seasonal Snapshot: Mixed signals until Jan 10. Then a modest general uptrend until for a few days, then mixed again. Pay attention to near-term fundamentals.

Sugar: 10Jan March Sugar is still making a base at about 22.75-2300. If this level fails to hold, look for a test of the 21.00 support level. Momentum continues to wane. Volatility has dropped from High to Average in just 2 sessions.Watch the Petro market for the Energy components’ dynamic.

Seasonal Snapshot: Modestly higher bias for rest of the week. Next week’s action points to a longer term Trend down and the short term 5-yr has a short negative then gently rising until near month-end.

By Providio Trading Consultants, Inc.
Disclaimer:
There is risk in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results. ]]> Wed, 11 Jan 2012 02:14:41 -0500 141177 The Bullion Report For January 4, 2012: New Year, Fresh Star http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=140764
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Gold prices finished 2011 trading at $1,566.80 which was a 9.3 percent increase for the year. Gold saw its lowest level back in February, but also established a new record high above $1,900 per ounce in September. During the final quarter, gold prices declined with liquidity concerns and an overbought technical view dominating the market. Some took that as a sign that major players were exiting gold positions so as to cover holes in their balance sheets.

Contrary to gold, silver prices ended 2011 with a loss settling at $27.92 - a decline of 10.7 percent for the year. While silver prices peaked near $50 in late April, they never reached a new record high price. Some feel the industrial aspect of silver may have helped foster the decline as concerns mounted of a global economic slowdown. At present silver prices seem to have found support at around $26 per ounce. The sharp drop in silver prices has taken the wind out of some bullish sails, but fundamentals remain intact and friendly.

Gold rallied in the final session of 2011 and moved higher on the first day of trading in 2012. Indicators are issuing a possible buy-signal, but it would really help to see a little more follow through to the upside in order to coax additional confidence especially the 200 day moving average at $1,626. For now it looks like investors are again friendly to bullish gold and believe that the yellow metal will regain its ability to rally, finding legs.

Silver prices have gained well over the past few sessions, up sharply and back over $29.50. That is impressive and sets the tone for a move to $30.00. Silver prices also offer the additional attraction of having been beaten down more so than gold which may entice buyers seeking a rebound.

On the fundamental front, it seems apparent that governments will continue to print more money and concerns for economic growth remain. Meanwhile Iran is heating up with perceived threats regarding missiles, concerns over their nuclear capability and general saber rattling as Iran flexes their muscles. All of this helps firm oil prices and in turn adds a bullish flavor. Equities have risen and while the U.S. dollar remains in an uptrend, it has stalled and is fueling strength among precious metals. Long term, however, the situation becomes less clear. The major influences will remain the direction of the dollar, oil prices and the perceptions regarding European and US debt. Should the global economy fail to improve, that may encourage the aspect of metals as a store of value. Fundamentals haven't changed, and remain friendly for higher prices.

An area frequently overlooked as to its significance is the psychology of the marketplace. At present given the price drop the past couple of months in precious metal prices there are a growing number of skeptics for another bullish year ahead. There are also fears raised by the MF Global bankruptcy. That action shattered confidence as many traders faced margin calls, and others lost access to their positions. There is still a specter of missing money which further damages trust, yet beyond that interest is the relationship between gold and silver. Since silver prices have been more depressed, specs may be keen on their attraction to silver. Price levels are another element; Gold below $1,500 or above $1,700 could give a push just like silver over $30 or below $25.

Right now, the environment for investors still seems positive for precious metals. The sorting through the European Debt Crisis hasn't gone away. Although they still lack a solution the markets seem intent upon calming in an effort to restore at least a semblance of normalcy. Stocks are firm and economic news seems pretty friendly.

The real rate of return remains negative, with rates held low, and that should prompt more investment in metals. The present course of action looks for additional rounds of easing and currency devaluation, which should attract investors to precious metals as Gold and silver should tend to counteract any currency devaluation. Thus gold and silver are forecast as solid options against what is apt to come in 2012.


Summary

What many investors see now is an opportunity to buy. Markets have pullbacks. No market moves straight in any direction. These pullbacks, such as gold and silver experienced in late 2011, were likely started by large institutions needing to cover capital requirements. Those in turn shook out the weak handed and caused others to decide to cash in, yet overall things haven’t changed and the prospect is for another bullish set up for precious metals in 2012.


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Wed, 04 Jan 2012 22:21:04 -0500 140764 Providio’s Futures Market Commentary For 12/29/2011 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=140532 Please see below for updated comments on the Grains and Metals. In particular the Overbot conditions and gaps left to the downside on this morning’s reopenings in Corn and Beans.

Currencies: (29Dec) End of year position squaring, improved US economic forecasts, and Iranian threats ion the Persian Gulf has some churn in the FX market among others. Europe’s debt will still be an issue but for today, it’s off center stage.
E WARY OF ANY FURTHER EXTERNAL DYNAMICS AS THAT HAS BEEN THE PATTERN WHEN “RISK OFF” BECOMES OVERDONE.

Aussie: (29Dec) A close to 3-month symmetrical triangle with no break out in sight. The 200-day moving average at 101.40, while still rising, has been acting as a ceiling since breaking below decisively on 11/9.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns firming until the end of the year.

British: (29Dec) Sterling made news lows, and just looks dreadful on the chart. Late position squaring mitigated the day’s losses. The 200-day Moving Average is falling and the market is still well below that level.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr is diverting from the 15&30yr: 5yr continues the descent into the end of the year, the 15&30yr move higher.

Canadian: (29Dec) Recent action retains its look of a symmetrical Triangle pattern.
Look for resistance at about 9850 and support near 96.40. Neither is likely to be tested until next week.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are weak through the end of the year.

Dollar Index: (20Dec) New highs hit earlier on, then positions squaring took the market down a few ticks. Rising Trend is still rising. Look for even more light action until the middle of next year. The 80.00 level is showing as a significant support area.
Without further external actions by authorities, we expected previous pricing dynamics to resume their directional bias, regardless of our current technical tone.
Seasonal Snapshot: Choppy consolidation with a downward bias until year end.

Euro-FX: (29Dec) After making new lows, the Euro rallied late in the day on position squaring. Despite the late action going higher, the falling longer term trend is still in place. With the 200-day Moving Average and no “bad news” coming out about the European debt issue, the dynamic shifted elsewhere. Volume was quite restrained.
That said, watch and tighten risk controls if the Euro continues to break down. Some sort of artificial government dynamic is likely there. Outside of that, resistance should be offered at falling trend line below 1.3150.
Seasonal Snapshot: A more positive bias until the end of the year.

Yen: (15Dec) March Yen basically testing a support level at 1.2825. The general post BOJ intervention consolidations range low is about 1.2810. For all intents and purposes, the Yen has gone nowhere post intervention. Our technicals are a mixed bag, consistent with a market in sideways action. Though there are fundamental reasons to short the Yen, the technical picture is not yet clear. 12810 shows as strong support.
Seasonal Snapshot Consolidation with a downward bias ion all three patterns until year end.

Energies: (29Dec) After yesterday’s dire European debt news, the dynamic gave way to US growth prospects and Iranian mischief in the Persian Gulf. More seasonally warm weather in the Midwest and Northeast has NatGas on the run again.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three tracked Petro markets’ negative bias has turned positive until year end. To our surprise, the pattern is much more pronounced in RBOB than in its two Petro counterparts.

Crude: (20Dec) With better than expected US Housing Starts data and Iranian supply concerns, Feb staged a meaningful rally. Its highs are right at the bottom of a range put in before last week’s plunge. Volume fell. Stay with a negative bias in the absence of any compelling news in either direction. 92.50 is showing as a support level in Feb. A failure to hold there probably targets the upper 80s. Watch the Euro for a clue as to direction as they have been well correlated of late.

NatGas: (20Dec) Modestly cooler weather has usage likely rising but not a pace that will chew through the record storage. Secondaries have gone positive but Primaries are still negative in bias. Without a sustained cold spell in the Midwest and Northeast, this market should remain largely in a bearish pattern. Along with Heating Oil, the lack of real cold weather has the heating fuels under pressure and Oversold.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 15 & 30yr patterns are pointed strongly to the downside through the end of the year. The 5yr is sideways with a mild downward bias.

Equities: (29Dec) Higher action off of better US data. Modest lower Volume rally with the market not setting any new levels. Stay away until after the New Year.
Seasonal Snapshot: The SP & Dow’s 15&30yr patterns are in an uptrend for the rest of the year.
The NASDAQ’s upward pattern has been in place since the middle of July and continues until the end of the year.

Grains: (29Dec) Modest inside days on our 3 tracked markets. No new levels and position squaring at work.

Corn: (27Dec) Not to be left behind, Corn joined the rally in the sector on the back of Beans and poor South American weather. The March contract’s break out above 620 reversed the falling trend.
Pay attention to the extreme Overbot conditions and the gap down to 621 in the Mar contract that was left on Tuesday morning’s reopen.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr pattern leads the choppy 15&30yr patterns gently higher until the end of February.

Soybeans: (27Dec) Today’s rally (on threatening South American weather) saw the strongest Volume in two weeks. Beans have led the strength in all three markets we track. What looked like a rounding top, a bearish pattern, last week, has now sustained its break out above the highs near 1160 in the Jan contract, right into a congestion level bound by 1170-1230. Sustained strength targets the 14Oct high at 1283.
Pay attention to the extreme Overbot conditions and the gap down to 1167 in the Jan contract that was left on Tuesday morning’s reopen. The 200-day Moving average is still falling.
Seasonal Snapshot: Consolidation in the 30yr pattern and more choppy in the 5&15 yr ends in mid Dec when all three take a more positive tone through the end of the year.

Wheat: (27Dec) There is no gap left on Tuesday’s reopen, but given the recent high correlation, one wonders how a selloff in the remainder of the sector would affect Wheat. Mar is revisiting the congestion area from 3 weeks ago.
The 200-day Moving Average has been falling for the past 3 months.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5, 15& 30 year patterns are all generally trending positive into year end.

Interest Rates: (27Dec) The “deepening” debt crisis in Europe is driving scared money into the US Treasuries. Plain and simple.
Keeping the levels from yesterday even though there was no weakness today:
Rising trend line support on more weakness:
Mar Bonds 142-00
Mar 10yr 130-00
Fairly significant support levels remain in place for long-dated instruments
Mar Bonds- 140-00
Mar 10-Yr- 129-00
Mar 5-Yr - 122-16 (untracked)
Mar Bund- 133.30
Seasonal Snapshot: 5, 15 & 30 yr patterns in long-dated maturities’ US Treasury instruments have a short, mild upward bias, then consolidate until year end. The 2yr has a negative bias until year end, but is much more choppy.

Metals: (29Dec) More significant weakness in Gold was mitigated in late position squaring buying. Copper’s strength reflected the improving outlook for the US economy.

Gold: (28Dec) Today’s weakness probed below our noted support level at the 15Dec low at 1562.5, but is trying to hold on as of this writing. More weakness targets the 26Sep low at 1543.
Our Trend and Momentum indicators are still falling. Today’s Volume seems to be stronger than it has been recently, but is still muted due to the holiday market conditions. This clouds the resolution of both our previously noted bear flag formation and our symmetrical triangle pattern. That said, both patterns are starting to play out: the first projects a move down to 1390; the second down to 1325. By our standards, the market is Oversold, but with a current reading of 26 vs. the 13 measurement we had the last time it was at these levels may signal more downside is on the way.
The 200-day moving average at 1621.8 is still rising and should cap any rallies.
Seasonal Snapshot: General strength through the end of the year in the 5, 15 & 30yr patterns. The 30yr whipsaws down then up during the first two weeks of January.

Copper: (28Dec) More weakness. The pattern of lower highs and higher lows since late September also keeps the market in a symmetrical triangle formation, currently bound by 325.00 and 345.00. Our technicals point to lower action and the 200-day Moving Average is falling.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate until year-end. The 15yr turns higher from 04Jan through 13Jan while both the 5 & 30yr consolidate until the end of Jan.

Softs: (29Dec) Largely a position squaring consolidation day. Low Volume.

Cocoa: (20Dec) Early action bounced March Cocoa off the important 2075 support. With all the technicals now having made the turn to a more positive bias, this market has room to run as its still coming off being the most Oversold Commodity we’ve ever seen using our measurements. We would have liked to seen more Volume, but the impending holidays and year-end squaring may be sucking the life out of this markets liquidity.
Seasonal Snapshot: The short-term 5&15 yr seasonal pattern continues its march higher until early 2013. The 30yr has entered a wide, volatile consolidation range that lasts until mid January.

Coffee: (20Dec) Coffee extended yesterday’s move but Volume barely budged. Some waning of interest is to be expected given the coming holidays. Additionally, even with the nice 2-day rally, the market still has to get through 225.00 just to get into the chart structure. This is the only Volatility on the higher than Standard Deviation list. Looks like short covering to us.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr is more pronounced, but all three patterns have a positive bias until 19Dec when choppy consolidation takes over at the beginning of Feb.

Cotton: (20Dec) Easily the most disappointing of the tracked Softs. Failure is the name of this chart. Failure to make new highs and failure to settle higher. Of positive note, March didn’t make lower lows, so that’s supportive. Primary indicators are still negative. 200-day Moving Average still clearly falling.
Seasonal Snapshot: Moderate upward bias marches higher until year-end.

Sugar: (20Dec) A reasonably heavy day of Volume validate the move higher in March. Most of the best positive action and the biggest volume surge occurred immediately following the US Housing Starts data release.
A close look at the March chart action has the 2300 level showing as a significant support and resistance level; largely supportive at this point. If this level fails, materially lower levels are to be expected. The 200-day moving average (26.60) has been moving decidedly lower for a while and should cap any rallies.
Seasonal Snapshot: On 09Dec, the 5yr pattern kicked off the march higher in all three patterns until year end.


Disclaimer:
There is risk in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Mon, 02 Jan 2012 21:58:58 -0500 140532 Mcx Crude Oil And Copper Trend Levels For Today http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=140277 Crude Oil and Copper Trend Levels For Today


Mcx Crude Oil (JAN) – Expected resistance and support levels for the crude Dec contract with expiry date of 19 JAN 2011 are :

MCX Crude Oil Trading Levels For Today

Support 1: 5290, Support 2: 5185

Resistance 1: 5415, Resistance 2: 5495

Mcx Copper (Feb) – Copper’s Nov contract which is going to expire on 29 FEB 2011, is expected to trade between the broad ranges of 396 to 411 Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows:

MCX Copper Trading Levels For Today

Support 1: 306.15, Support 2: 391.10

Resistance 1: 404.15, Resistance 2: 410.20 MCX Crude Oil Tips







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]]> Fri, 23 Dec 2011 22:07:20 -0500 139997 Learn About Futures Insider For December 22, 2011: Palladium http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139925
Price Quote & Tick Size:US Dollars and cents per ounce; minimum tick size is $0.05 (5¢) per troy ounce ($5.00 per contract).

Contract Months: Trading is conducted over 15 months, beginning with the current month and the next two consecutive months before moving into the quarterly cycle of March, June, September, and December.

Trading Specs: Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:30 AM until 1:00 PM ET. Electronic trading is conducted from 6:00 PM until 5:15 PM ET via the CME Globex® trading platform, Sunday through Friday. There is a 45-minute break each day between 5:15PM (current trade date) and 6:00 PM (next trade date).

Daily Price Limit: As of date of initial publishing, there were no daily limits; however, it is wise to consult the exchange.

Trading Symbols: PA
Reduced Size Image
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software

Palladium Facts

This precious metal is one of six metallic elements collectively known as platinum group metals (PGM). The other five members of PGM include ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, and iridium.

The official discovery of palladium is attributed to William Hyde Wollaston in 1803, who named the element after an asteroid – Pallas. Palladium is found in ore deposits in Russia, Australia, South and North America. Palladium may often be tied closely to nickel production in places like South Africa, Siberia, and Ontario, Canada. It can also be found in gold or copper ores.

Palladium sources on a global level are illustrated as follows:
Reduced Size Image


Palladium is soft and silver-white like platinum and does not tarnish in air. It is harder and lighter than platinum.

Where commercial deposits are concerned, the largest estimated deposits – over 90% of the world total – occur at the Bushveld Igneous Complex in South Africa and in Norilsk in Siberia. Palladium can also be recycled. According to the USGS, nearly 10,400 kilograms of platinum group metals were recovered from scrap in 2006.
IPB Image

*Data courtesy of the USGS

IPB Image
*Data courtesy of the USGS

Price highlights for this market include:

Reports on metals in the late 1970s showed glimmers of support for prices depressed by supply gluts as bills were put forth for government purchases to boost strategic supplies. Original proposals by President Carter included purchasing 1.19 million troy ounces of palladium. Prices which had once been well below $100 per ounce started to move higher.
The metals price boom in 1980 helped pull palladium higher. Soaring gold prices also helped trigger substitutive demand for platinum group metals at this time as manufactured items and dental alloys were switched to less pricey products. Prices would hit fresh highs above $300 per ounce before collapsing through the end of the year.
Prices would remain under the $100 per ounce level through 1982 before trending higher on economic woes in 1983.
In 1991, Nissan Motor Company announced that they had developed a catalytic converter using palladium instead of platinum, boosting prices on substitutive demand. On the day of the news release, platinum prices would fall around $20 an ounce while palladium would rise by $6. The next trading session saw prices move back towards $96 per ounce.
Prices would not break above $200 per ounce until 1997 when supply fears would spike the market. Throughout 1998, concerns over exports from Russia's Norilsk Nickel mine would deliver higher prices. By January of 2001, palladium would hit record high prices above $1,000 per troy ounce as Russian supplies dried up.
Within a year, prices would collapse, dipping to four-year lows as Russia's palladium producer invested in Stillwater and supplies were seen as stabilizing. Forecasts for a surplus of platinum and palladium in 2003 would trim prices again. Demand forecasts were trimmed as North America's economy slowed.
Palladium prices found support under $200 per ounce, rising through $300 in early 2004, dipping back, and then rebounding above $400 per ounce in 2006. This price volatility would remain as 2008 saw a range with highs approaching $600 and lows around $160 per ounce.

Key terms for palladium include:

Bushveld Igneous Complex - location of an important palladium mine in South Africa.
Auto Catalysts - one of the primary uses of palladium, precious metals act as catalysts in catalytic converters to reduce emissions from internal combustion engines.
Annealing - in metallurgy, a means to alter the strength or hardness properties of a material with a heat treatment.

Key Uses


Palladium is hypoallergenic and can be used in jewelry manufacture, wearing better than white gold. In fact, it has been employed as a jewelry metal since 1939. However, the primary destination for nearly 50 percent of palladium is automobile catalysts. Palladium absorbs large quantities of hydrogen and can also be used to store the same. It is also used as plating for electronics, dental alloys, watch making, surgical instruments, and blood sugar test strips.

Key Concerns


Regional Concentration: Like platinum, a huge percentage of current palladium mining is also confined primarily to South Africa and Russia, leaving the door open for the possibility that any political concerns or regional activity could affect supply. An excellent example of this could be the recent sales of palladium from Russian stockpiles, since the overall stockpiles held by the central bank and state are unknown.

Perceived Scarcity: As with other platinum group metals, the possible or perceived global availability of palladium may impact forecasts for future supply.

Applications: New applications, as well as an increase in the existing technologies which employ platinum group metals, could shift the supply and demand dynamics rather quickly. The continued efforts to control emissions are significant especially with a possible shift to palladium rather than platinum.

Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading and it is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Futures Press Inc., the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Futures Press, Inc. or www.learnaboutfutures.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Past results are by no means indicative of potential future returns. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the markets. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. Futures Press, Inc., and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been canceled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of Futures Press, Inc.]]> Thu, 22 Dec 2011 22:38:43 -0500 139925 The Bullion Report For December 21, 2011: After The Fall http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139840
Reduced Size Image
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software


The economic crisis of the past several years, with unchecked government growth and spiraling debt are all still apparent. The problems with the global economy still exist and are apt to grow. And one only need look at what is happening as it serves to illustrate the dangers we face from living beyond our means. Yet, we continue to build upon unsupportable economic foundations. Our current path is unsustainable. We have moved away from the path of sound money and economic stability. So what to expect of gold?

Well, bearish sentiment in the gold market is very high, which for some may be indicative of a market bottom. One thing to look at is that bullion buying in much of Asia has risen. Reuters reported that there has been a jump in buying in most Asian countries and that demand for gold in India, still the world's top buyer, rose slightly for the first time in almost a week on Friday.

While opinions are divided about the outlook for gold, most analysts of the gold market remain positive about the price outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Some are cautiously suggesting that the worst of the sell-off may be over as gold looks very oversold technically and the fundamentals remain sound. It is worth remembering that with gold selling off this past week physical demand remains robust globally.

What did central banks do in the gold market this week? Central banks in nations like China, India, Russia and Thailand keep buying gold reserves. These banks seem to be trimming their dollar exposure and have been buying whatever the International Monetary Fund chooses to sell. What does this mean? Does it mean that there are those who are reforming their thinking that perhaps gold can do a better job as an instrument to help a bank? Possibly; the Bank of England explores that subject in a paper that is to be officially published December 20, 2011, entitled, The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Paper No. 13.

In the paper they propose countries reduce the need for accumulating foreign exchange reserves by creating “exchange rate insurance” that individuals, businesses and governments can use to protect themselves against gyrations in their home currency’s value. It certainly is interesting to note that progressive thinking is growing in earnest to reform the current International Monetary and Financial System. In a way it serves to reaffirm how gold has been viewed as a hedge against all currencies.

The results of the BOE paper indicate that the real task at hand is to create a reformed international gold standard that would promote trade and prosperity throughout the world. Such a system has historical evidence on its side. What is proposed would provide a stable and secure international monetary system by redefining each of the key currencies, specifically the dollar, euro, pound, yen and Yuan, respectively, as a unit weight of gold. Other major countries, including Brazil, Canada, India and Russia would be invited to join in defining their currencies in terms of gold. Then smaller countries would then be free to fix their exchange rate to any one of the gold backed currencies.

The notion that a reformed approach to a gold standard could actually produce better results than powerful central bankers who manipulate interest rates and currency values may be counter-intuitive but the facts speak for themselves. Evidence suggests a gold standard provides better apparent financial stability. It might be just the medicine to create an environment which returns the spontaneous order of the market place.

With easy money and inflation again in the headlines, but without a Paul Volcker at the Fed's helm, the BOE analysis and arguments are timely and will hopefully bring new discussions. Monetary policy observers around the world may point to this as the death of the world dollar standard and why not? Haven’t we seen enough of the ill effects of the present system?

Certainly the inability of the U.S. to reduce its budget deficit is a case in point as is the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy - they are bullish for gold. Among some students of the economy an argument for returning to the gold standard is brewing. Even more importantly is the argument for choice and competition and the role of government. The presidential election in 2012 will be focused on the economy and the role that government plays.


Summary

Preserving the ability to choose which currencies to accept, with whom to trade and on what terms, is a hallmark of a free society. Sadly these freedoms are among the many that have been compromised, if not lost completely. Traders have watched as over time gold trades in an inverse relationship to the dollar. Right now, the gold market is likely sensing another round of Fed quantitative easing in the near future, and writing the script of its own recovery off recent lows.


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Wed, 21 Dec 2011 23:08:19 -0500 139840 The Commodities Review For The Week Of December 19, 2011 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139697 The Softs Review
For the week of December 19, 2011

By Jurgens H. Bauer

For the week coffee prices continued downward, making new lows and looking weak. Cocoa prices staged an early week sizable rally when nervous shorts covered after a private report warned of reduced production slated for the Ivory coast. However, cocoa values resumed their move lower again, although managing slight gains for the week.

Sugar prices consolidated with the key feature being the reduction of volatility in option prices. Cotton prices moved sideways to lower.

What to expect in the week ahead? Anticipate resumption of US Dollar strength to pressure values among softs and for markets to be choppy and vulnerable because they will be thin.

Reduced Size Image
***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



The Energies Review
For the week of December 19, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

The energy complex took a dive with the bad news coming out of Europe as both WTI and Brent sank to new monthly lows. Jan WTI crossing below $93.00 and Feb Brent below $103. I believe the markets are a bit oversold here and will look to bounce up this week as the markets quiet down for the holiday week. Look for WTI to trade back above $95.


The Metals Review
For the week of December 19, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

Precious metals got hit real hard this past week as Feb gold traded all the way down to $1,560 and March silver took a dive below $30. Again I believe this is an oversold market and with Feb gold having huge potential support at $1,540, I would look to play from the long side with OTM calls.

Reduced Size Image
***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.]]> Mon, 19 Dec 2011 23:36:10 -0500 139697 Learn About Futures Insider For December 15, 2011: Lumber http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139446
Price Quote & Tick Size: US Dollars per 1,000 board feet (mbf); minimum tick size is $.10 per mbf ($11 per contract)

Contract Months: Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov

Trading Specs: Open outcry trading is conducted MON-FRI: 9:00 a.m. -1:05 p.m. CT. Electronic trading is conducted via the CME Globex® trading platform MON - THU 5:00pm - 4:00pm CT (next day); SUN and holidays 5:00pm - 4:00pm CT (next day)

Daily Price Limit: $10 per mbf above or below previous day's settlement price; expandable to $15 per mbf

Trading Symbols: LB
Reduced Size Image
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software
Lumber Facts

The production of lumber has a rich history in North America and critical economic importance. As the United States grew westward, so did the timber industry and by the twentieth century, New England’s white pine, the Western redwood, pine, and fir forests, and the South’s pine forests had become important sources of national lumber.

The following map shows the softwood lumber resources across Canada and the United States:
Reduced Size Image
Concerns over sustainability of lumber resources were brought to industry attention as early as the 1870s and eventually gave rise to professional forestry and the national forest system. Tree nurseries and reforestation efforts are now important parts of the industry.
According to the CME rule book, deliverable types of lumber are nominal lengths of 2x4’s manufactured in the western United States or from British Columbia or Alberta in Canada. A variety of rules exist regarding the specifics of origin and the type of wood allowed. Coniferous species like pine, fir, and spruce provide the bulk of softwood used for lumber as well as cedar and hemlock.

Manufacturers remove much of the moisture content from the green lumber, usually surfaced dry to 20% moisture content. Accepted grades No. 1 and No.2 must also be packaged by banding together and wrapping in poly or paper.

The US Census Bureau’s 2007 annual industry report shows production by state as illustrated in the following table:
IPB Image
*- Represents zero. D Withheld. Z Less than 500,000 board feet.
**Data courtesy of the US Census Bureau Lumber Production and Mill Stocks report
IPB Image

**Data courtesy of the US Census Bureau Lumber Production and Mill Stocks report
Reduced Size Image

**Data courtesy of the US Census Bureau Lumber Production and Mill Stocks report

Price highlights for this market include:

In 1973, high prices for lumber were blamed for higher home costs as builders said at least $1,200 more were added to the average home. At the time, builder's urged curbs on exports of American logs to Japan and increased cutting in national parks.
By 1974 the US housing market was slumping, bringing pressure to lumber prices which finally hit eight year lows in October of that year. Sawmills in the US and Canada cut shifts and slowed activities. Prices would go from more than $150 to dipping below $100 per 1,00 board feet.
Throughout the balance of the 1970s, prices would trend higher, eventually moving towards $300 in 1979, prompting another call for increased cutting in the national forests. A gradual slowdown in housing demand and starts coupled to higher mill production brought fresh selling pressure through the early 1980s, driving prices back under $150 per 1,000 board feet.
In 1982, prices staged a recovery as one of the US' top timber official's predicted robust demand for lumber in, "the near and long term." A dip in mortgage rates in 1983 would fuel a surge in lumber orders and tip sawmills into a frenzy of activity.
Environmental concerns in the early 1990s delivered a spike in prices, led by logging closures in parts of the Pacific Northwest on the heels of changes in environmental policy making. Researchers in Congress denied claims that protections of cutbacks in federal logging were to blame for a nearly 90 percent jump in lumber prices. They cited a national economic recovery increasing demand. Prices would hit a high above $490 per 1,000 board feet. Prices would dip back through $250 in 1995 and then spike again the following year, trading well above the $400 level.
Housing starts slumped again in 1997 and helped pressure lumber prices which headed back below the $300 level. Prices would continue to fluctuate wildly, proving to be a headache for homebuilders through the early 2000s.
A perceived supply glut would knock prices down, but the real lows would come during the onset of the housing crisis and economic slowdown by 2008. Price lows would be made just above $130 per 1,000 board feet.

Key terms for the lumber market include:

MBF - an abbreviation for 1,000 board feet of lumber (not one million) which is about 83.33 cubic feet or 2.36 cubic meters. Board feet is a common measurement of lumber volume, 144 cubic inches. Lumber is normally specified in its rough size before drying, which is why a finished board is normally smaller than the quoted dimensions.

Hardwood & Softwood - ways to describe wood from different trees. In general, softwoods are often from conifers like pine, fir, and spruce. Hardwoods are most likely from deciduous trees like ash, birch, or cherry. The terms are not always based on actual hardness of the wood e.g. balsa is a hardwood but much softer than a softwood like yew.

Key Uses


Lumber is primarily destined for structural construction applications.

Key Concerns

Environmental Concerns: The impact of the forestry industry as well as logging practices comes under regular scrutiny and can often spark a number of strong arguments.

Trade Concerns: Issues concerning softwood imports, exports, and applicable duties can often bring volatility. Trade discussions or issues between the United States and Canada are often worthy of note.

Industry Reports: The possible demand and usage within construction reports may bring price volatility. The reports of new home sales and new construction from the US Census Bureau are worth noting as well as the production reports from western wood manufacturers.

Weather: Price volatility is also possible during periods surrounding extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, and earthquakes as they related to the overall destruction and perceived rebuilding requirements.

Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading and it is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Futures Press Inc., the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Futures Press, Inc. or www.learnaboutfutures.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Past results are by no means indicative of potential future returns. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the markets. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. Futures Press, Inc., and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been canceled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of Futures Press, Inc.]]> Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:40:15 -0500 139446 <![CDATA[Mcx Gold Trend Levels >> Mcx Silver Trend Levels]]> http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139402 MCX Gold Trend ;- Decline in gold is still Joddar. With nearly 1.5 per cent on MCX gold has been under 28 thousand rupees. If we look at Wednesday and today's gold businesses, gold has been broken up to Rs 1,200 While on Comaks gold dropped to $ 1,570.

MCX Gold Levels :- Gold FEB contract which will expire on 4th FEB 2011.gold gave a bearish run as the US debt default concern made the investors cautious. Resistance and support levels for the today’s session are: MCX Gold Trend

Support 1: 28090
Support 2: 27810
Resistance 1: 28415
Resistance 2: 28650.

MCX Silver Trend :- MCX Silver is trading with decline. MCX Silver is trading at Rs 53 150 with decline of 2 per cent. Silver has also seen a decline in foreign markets. MCX Silver Trend

MCX Silver Levels :- Silver closed at 56578.silver is trading under consolidation. Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows.

Support 1: 54055
Support 2: 53535
Resistance 1: 55100
Resistance 2: 55505. MCX Levels



]]> Thu, 15 Dec 2011 06:47:06 -0500 139402 <![CDATA[Providio's Special Metals Commentary]]> http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139368 Gold: 14Dec Gold is testing the 200-day moving average at 1615-1620. Use a tight stop just below that level if you are trying to pick a short-term bottom. Upside risk is the historically Oversold condition. If the market sustains a move below the average, see below for levels.

That said, our Momentum measure is now decidedly negative and the market is sustaining the move below the lower end of our symmetrical triangle formation that has been in place since early September, bound between 1705-1750. A continuation of the pattern projects a move to 1325...

The previous lows at 1607.3 (20Oct) may offer new support. Upside risk is the historically Oversold conditions, as it is the most Oversold it has been since late September.

Falling trend line resistance comes in at 1683 and old support at what was the lower end of the triangle (1705) should now offer new resistance.

There is an interesting discussion of “paper” vs. physical gold and the ETF market, where some of this recent pressure may be originating. In our opinion, while this dynamic is pressuring gold in the interim, it would be long term bullish:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/etf-an...-relent-market

Seasonal Snapshot: General strength through the end of the year in the 5, 15 & 30yr pattern

Copper: 14Dec Still sagging on concerns over any meaningful agreements or pacts in the EuroZone and lack of stimulus here at home. After failing to make a meaningfully higher high above the huge rally two weeks ago. That move broke the March contract out above what appears to be a symmetrical triangle from mid September but the stall-out has now pulled our Momentum negative. Rising trend line support from back to late Sep comes in at 330.00 and the previous low was 321.85.

The 50% retracement of the August-September decline, about 20 cents higher at 375.00 offered resistance in late October and the market made an ensuing higher low, which can be constructive. A sustained move through this level targets the (falling) 200-day moving average another 25 cents higher at 400.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate until year-end

There is risk in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades with Providio Trading Consultants, Inc.]]> Thu, 15 Dec 2011 03:11:47 -0500 139368 The Bullion Report For Dec 14, 2011: Yes, Virginia Gold Does Have A Seasonal Claus(e) http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139344
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software


Let's get one important thing out in the open first. Seasonal and weather trends might already be priced into the market, and any past movements in price are not a promise of future results, so keep that in mind.

Seasonality is not something that is often associated with the price of gold. Typically seasonality or weather related patterns are often thought of as something that applies to crops, or even certain stocks like Toys R Us. It is in cases where a commodity is planted, grown and later harvested during certain times of the year that triggers a thought towards seasonal patterns. Seasonality is even logical with some stocks. Who would think that there is a similar tendency for the yellow metal since gold is extracted or mined, in all types of weather and at all times of the year?

The supply side is only one side of the story. Demand also plays an important role. Demand is the sometimes overlooked part of the equation, as there may be regular seasonal forces at work. Think of how demand for toys picks up as Christmas approaches or the seasonality of certain clothing like bathing suits. This can also be the case with gold, where purchases and interest are driven by a seasonality of demand.

Holiday bonuses may be a simple factor, but it’s likely more than that. Investors and speculators increase their holdings when they see opportunities for demand, and prices, to increase. Those times may be when the political or economic climate is perceived as changing. While those events can occur at anytime during the calendar year, gold still shows a historical tendency to rise during the holiday season. It is simply because there tends to be more demand for gold at this time of year.

One global factor that helps drive this demand and signal the start of gold’s seasonal price rise comes from post-harvest Asian buying. India is a particularly good example of this. India is famous for its harvest festival season and India has long been the world’s largest gold consumer, although China is likely to overtake that role sometime in the near future. The core of Indian festivities following the harvest is their famous wedding season.

Wedding traditions in India are elaborate and fascinating. They help drive what is usually the world’s biggest gold-demand period of the entire year. Marriages in India are so very important that even today most are arranged by families. For many, the timing of these weddings is critical. There is an increase in weddings during festival season. It is thought to enhance a marriage’s success, longevity, happiness, and good luck. Families of Indian brides pay handsomely to outfit them with extensive gold dowries, much of which is in the form of gold jewelry. No expense is spared in buying these gold dowries, which is why Indian gold demand soars in autumn.

It is not unusual for between a third and a half of India’s entire annual gold demand to occur during this time. Although it tapers off in late November to early December, gold’s strong seasonal period continues into the Western holiday season. This is when the overwhelming portion of discretionary spending takes place. There is a pronounced surge in gold jewelry demand as holiday dollars flow into gifts for wives, girlfriends, daughters, and mothers. In fact most jewelers do well over half of their entire year’s sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

After the first of the year, the market experiences a similar impact from China. The Chinese New Year typically falls between late January and mid-February on the Western calendar. The Chinese have a deep cultural affinity for gold and gold investments.

All of these events add up to very good motivators for seasonal rallies in gold. The bottom line is that there is a demand-driven seasonal in gold that comes from a variety of cultural factors around the globe. It is a cycle that precious metal traders should be aware of. Though seasonal are only a secondary driver, they are reliable and worthy of attention.

Of course, it is also important to recognize that any seasonal tendency is merely a proclivity, and as such may be superseded, or over-ridden by other events. While it is a factor, it is always important to pay attention to other factors such news events just as one might with other assets.

This year such a situation developed as gold prices approached the time of year when seasonal demand was overridden by an overbought market. While gold’s seasonal tendency is for prices to begin ascending in the fall, instead there were some violent downward moves. It is felt that an overbought situation caused a major correction to occur. This holds true for any market which is overbought or oversold, just as any seasonal tendency can be negated or ignored altogether by a news event.

Think of it this way, prevailing winds will always influence a golf ball’s flight even if it is struck true and on course. Serious golfers know this and adjust. Serious traders should too. Even though it makes sense to be aware of gold’s seasonal tendency, remember the prevailing wind of other market influences. When gold’s primary drivers are positioned to support a major move, seasonal winds can assist, or serve to enhance the price move. This may help it make a larger and faster move.


Summary

Right now we are heading into gold’s strongest time of the year seasonally. In the last decade gold prices have on average moved about 10% higher between late October and late February. I am not suggesting that this is precisely what will be experienced again this year, especially as so much news is influencing markets in general, but it is a tendency that gold prices have shown previously. This kind of seasonal demand, coupled with serious economic issues on a global scale, could make it hard for anyone to call a top in gold.


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Wed, 14 Dec 2011 22:34:43 -0500 139344 The Commodities Review For The Week Of December 12, 2011 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=139166 The Softs Review
For the week of December 12, 2011

By Jurgens H. Bauer

Things look ugly and can get uglier. Dollar strength will press prices of softs down. Until Europe gets its act together it looks like could be a dark week ahead. Coffee making new lows, sugar rallies should be selling opportunities. There is little reason I see to look to play these markets from the long side.

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***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



The Energies Review
For the week of December 12, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

The energy markets took a big dive at the end of last week with fears of the European debt crisis still in full effect. WTI traded from $102.30 down to $97.75 as it closed out the week on a sour note. I do like WTI from $97.50 to $95.00 and would be a buyer around those levels as the market will likely see a bounce during the trading week back over $100.00. Natural gas is still a dog in my eyes and I don't like it one bit down here. Would like to see this market press below 3.00.

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***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



The Metals Review
For the week of December 12, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

Precious metals had a sour week as the dollar gained against the euro and both gold and silver fell as the bears were in full force. Gold looks to drop below $1,700 this week as this market gets flushed out. I like the yellow metal at $1,650 and I believe this is where it is headed next.

I think Copper remains a buy on pullbacks as huge potential support is at 3.47 short term with 3.25 still another huge support beam there. Copper will likely look to trade between 3.45 and 3.58 this week.


Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.]]> Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:24:45 -0500 139166 Learn About Futures Insider For December 8, 2011:heating Oil http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=138830
Contract Size: 42,000 U.S. gallons

Price Quote & Tick Size: U.S. dollars and cents per gallon; minimum fluctuation is $0.0001 (0.01¢) per gallon ($4.20 per contract).

Contract Months: 36 consecutive months.

Trading Specs: Open outcry trading is conducted from 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM ET. Electronic trading is conducted from 6:00 PM until 5:15 PM via the CME Globex® trading platform, Sunday through Friday. There is a 45-minute break each day between 5:15PM (current trade date) and 6:00 PM (next trade date).

Daily Price Limit: $0.25 per gallon ($10,500 per contract) for all months. If any contract is traded, bid, or offered at the limit for five minutes, trading is halted for five minutes. When trading resumes, the limit is expanded by $0.25 per gallon in either direction. If another halt were triggered, the market would continue to be expanded by $0.25 per gallon in either direction after each successive five-minute trading halt. There will be no maximum price fluctuation limits during any one trading session.

Trading Symbols: HO

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software

Heating Oil Facts


Heating oil is usually included in the distillate fuel oil family as designated by refineries. These distillates can include diesel fuel and heating oils which is why the heating oil futures contract may be considered for use in hedging for diesel fuel and jet fuel. Fuel oil – or No 2 fuel oil – is usually the second largest resultant “cut” from a barrel of crude oil after gasoline. Delivered by tanker truck to residential and commercial buildings, fuel oil can be stored in tanks until required for boiler or forced air furnaces.

The top five consuming states are shown in the following illustration:

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Distillate products from domestic sources or imports from Canada or Venezuela may be shipped all over the United States via pipelines, tankers, and rail cars. Central distribution areas (like New York Harbor) or storage terminals may hold fuel oil until redistribution. In the United States, the typical season for heating oil use is from October through March. Refiners often produce heating oil throughout the summer and fall months and store it for winter use; however, they may also refine heating oil in the winter.

Like gasoline, the price of heating oil is determined by more than one factor. Costs to produce and distribute the product are just a couple of examples. Overall, the following chart illustrates the rough components:


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*Data courtesy of EIA

Price highlights for this market include:

During the war years, the focus was on providing gasoline for the military. This led to rationing of other distillate products, especially once petroleum supplies from North Africa were disrupted. Heating oil was strictly rationed, with some commercial buildings in 1943 warned of being heatless and the focus fell to providing heat to homes with children. The 1970s were also an active time for heating oil and other petroleum prices as the energy crisis built. In 1973, the average price of heating oil was between 28 and 30 cents per gallon. At the same time, Nixon was encouraging rationing of the fuel oil. In 1975, a 60 cent per barrel import tariff was dropped in an effort to save consumers about 1.5 cents per gallon on foreign fuel. By 1979, the average price of home heating oil had reached 90 cents per gallon.
Domestic gasoline demand fell in 1980, but supply and price controls via OPEC members helped keep heating oil futures prices well above 50 cents per gallon through the early part of the decade. As early as August of 1985, analysts were beginning to predict a drop in fuel prices stemming from an increase in imports from Canada, Italy, Romania, and China.
1986 saw a steep decline in heating oil prices, dropping below 50 cents per gallon amid a collapse in crude oil prices.
The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and subsequent Gulf War helped spike heating oil prices again in 1990. After jumping above $1 per gallon, prices would retreat back towards 50 cents a gallon. In the late 1990s, prices would see pressure from what some analysts termed an "oversupply" of petroleum, leading futures prices down to a record low around 29 cents per gallon.
In 2000, supply concerns appeared on the scene again, spiking prices above $1 per gallon. Prices retreated back towards 50 cents a gallon less than a year later, only to spike again in 2003, this time hitting $1.50 per gallon. Cold weather and a Venezuelan oil strike helped propel prices higher.
Prices continued to trend higher through the early 2000s, finally breaking above $2 per gallon following the disruptions to refineries after Hurricane Katrina. Prices would briefly dip back below $1.50 per gallon before heading higher.
In 2008, a combination of market forces - including record high crude oil prices - helped heating oil futures hit a record price high of more than $4.15 per gallon. Like other markets at the time, a combination of demand concerns on economic slowdown weighed on prices, sending them back below $1.50 per gallon by the end of the year and into 2009.
In 2011, prices would strengthen again, heading back above $3 per gallon.

Key terms for this market include:

Distillates - liquid products concentrated or extracted by distillation, a physical separation process based on different volatilities in boiling.

Fuel Oil #2 - refers to the specific liquid petroleum product that is used in residential and commercial situations for furnaces or boilers to generate heat - heating oil.

Key Uses


Heating oil is used primarily as a fuel to heat residential homes; mainly in New England and the Central Atlantic States. The following chart illustrates the residential use sales by thousand gallons, roughly divided by region.

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*Data courtesy of EIA

Key Concerns


Crude Oil Prices – Since a large component of pricing heating oil is based on the price of the crude oil, fluctuations in one may incur changes in the other.

Seasonal Demand – Price volatility may change based on the perceived consumer needs for winter heating

Weather – Since a large percentage of the consumer base for residential heating oil is in the Central and North Atlantic states, any significant cold weather or lack thereof may contribute to price volatility. Also, hurricanes along the Gulf Coast can impact production at refineries located in that region or affect terminals receiving imports.

Refining – Any changes or disruptions to refinery production is worth noting including scheduled or unscheduled shutdowns.

Industry Reports – Like crude oil and gasoline, heating oil inventories can be of significance as any unexpected increases or decreases in supply may affect price. Volatility may also increase around the release of these reports, including the weekly API and EIA reports.

Environmental Concerns – Changes to or perceived issues regarding the emissions from residential oil burners may also be worth noting.

Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading and it is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Futures Press Inc., the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with Futures Press, Inc. or www.learnaboutfutures.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Past results are by no means indicative of potential future returns. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the markets. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. Futures Press, Inc., and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been canceled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of Futures Press, Inc.]]> Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:18:50 -0500 138830 <![CDATA[The Bullion Report For Dec 7, 2011: Will November's Golden Harbor Continue?]]> http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=138735
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
***chart courtesy of Gecko Software


The international issues have so far supported fresh forays into precious metals. Gold's gains were evident against other currencies, not just the US dollar. The euro dropped 5% against gold in November. The British pound fell nearly 4% against gold. The Aussie dollar fell nearly 6.5% and the South African rand by 5%. Thus, gold again protected investors around the world during the past month where heightened concerns abound from the global financial crisis. Gold is now more than 20% higher in dollars and 18% higher in Euros and pounds during 2011. And gold is only 9% below the record nominal high of $1,920/oz reached in September. If investors maintain the current skepticism regarding currency stability it seems likely that gold will flirt with those September highs sometime in early 2012.

Demand for gold has increased in recent months and years, however, there is plenty of room for additional investment to take place. HSBC estimated in December 2010 that gold remains less than 0.14% of global investable assets. That figure certainly seems to allow room for growth. Many analysts involved in the gold markets believe that precious metals are seeing a sustainable trend and investment, and monetary demand is set to remain very robust in the coming years.

That the gold price has improved and proved resilient is perhaps due to a reawakening of inflationary concerns and continued skepticism regarding economic and currency policy. Last week China's central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for its banks for the first time in nearly three years to ease credit strains and shore up borrowing concerns. While many felt that move was due to housing concerns in China, it no doubt will have an impact of fanning the flames of inflation internally in China. And since China is the most significant player in raw material purchases, any excess inflation could lead to an even faster spike in global inflation the next time markets get a fresh round of quantitative easing.

Don't forget the surprise move by a group of central banks, where they reduced the dollar swap rates. That action had the immediate impact of rallying equity markets as it was orchestrated to do. Broader markets have responded with substantial price increases. Reducing the swap rates seems akin to printing money as dollar swap lines give foreign central banks the ability to borrow dollars against their currency, use them for whatever they want - like to shore up bets made by European banks that went wrong, and at a later date, return them.

Markets previously experienced a similar “temporary dollar liquidity swap arrangement” with 14 foreign central banks back in December of 2007 (several months before the Bear Stearns collapse and nine months before the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy) which allowed easier access to Fed's subsidies. The joint action by some of the world's major central banks to boost dollar liquidity and provide cheap dollar funding to European banks seems very much like the world economy is facing another “Lehman moment”. Bottom line is this, the central banks worked in concert to provide liquidity for other currencies. That coordinated central bank action will result in a further increase in the global money supply and the consequent debasement of fiat and electronic currencies and inevitable devaluation of the dollar and of all major currencies.

Additional liquidity cannot help but eventually lead to higher inflation rates. At some point, investors will have to be on the lookout for the impact to appear in commodity values, many of which are also experiencing lower than normal inventories. While there are legitimate concerns that Chinese economic growth is slowing, the fact that more money will be available to chase around goods is apt to heighten demand and pick up the pace for hoarding certain commodities. Chief among them could be gold as it lends itself to the favored choice for a store of value during inflationary times. This may very well set the tone for Chinese-based purchases of gold to help fuel another gold rally.

Lastly, there appears to be a growing consensus in both Europe and in the United States, one that feels we must choose a different path. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, the protests in Greece, and the increasing tensions abroad are all signs that people no longer believe in the system we’ve got and want a different one. There is evidence that economic troubles are reaching a crisis level, and although this theme is often played up in the media, it appears increasingly relevant as more and more people in the streets get involved. Now, no one is suggesting that things have reached a point of no return, but they sure seem to have gotten broader attention and frustrated the masses.


Summary

The world is by no means on the verge of complete ruin, but without a doubt the latest action is seen by an increasing number of economists that we are acting with urgency to avert economic slow downs. “Risk on” has become a new buzz phrase and it these fears of aversion to risk and that will likely continue providing a safe haven demand for gold. Despite November being an extremely volatile month, one which saw sharp losses in many bond markets and all major equity indices internationally, gold was higher in all major currencies in November. The very limited supply and rarity of gold means that the increase in allocations to gold from minuscule levels is sustainable and will likely continue for many years as investors seek safe harbor given the radically changed nature of the global financial and economic landscape.


Disclaimer: The prices of precious metals and physical commodities are unpredictable and volatile. There is a substantial degree of a risk of loss in all trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Wed, 07 Dec 2011 22:44:46 -0500 138735 <![CDATA[Providio's Daily Technical Market Comment For 12/5/2011]]> http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=138614 Over lunch, French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel called for a new European Union treaty that include automatic sanctions for countries that violate rules to keep government deficits in check. They hope to decide on the changes by March. This is ahead of Thursday’s ECB rate decision and a summit of EU leaders in Brussels.
CFTC approved a rule that puts tighter limits on how brokerage firms can use customer funds.

As both of these items essentially already have rules and regulations on the books, we wonder if they will receive the same focus on enforcement going forward.
Markets reacted in sympathy, boosting the Equities and selected physical markets higher and pressuring the US Dollar and Treasuries. By early afternoon, however, talk that S&P is on the verge of downgrading France, Germany and several other triple-A rated sovereigns set this move back on its heels.

Currencies: 05Dec With the French and German Euro-zone debt discussions continuing to provide hope, there has been a modest anti-US Dollar rally and subsequent sell-off from their highs. There has largely been sideways action from the extremes caused by last week’s intervention. It seems like the various FX markets are waiting for the next externally driven market dynamic. This week has a relative dearth of data releases, chiefly sentiment/confidence indicators. Look for news out of the Euro-zone as the most likely candidate for some sort dynamic producer. However, further news out of Asia could make an impact, too. The uncertainty in the Euro-zone shows up in our European currencies, including the untracked Swiss Franc, all having RSIs close by the indecisive and mid-level 50 level.

Aussie: 05Dec Even with the late session weakness, the Aussie remains our strongest currency. It sits right above the still rising 200-day Moving Average. It now appears as if 1.0300, which the Aussie has been unable to stay above for more than a few minutes, is acting as the nearest term resistance. Volume figures point to a consolidation of last week’s gains as other dynamics work their way out.
On a recent historical basis, the recent Momentum turns have lasted slightly less than a month. Given that recent history, look for a likely positively biased Aussie though about year-end. This may be subject to a sudden shift if the fundamental dynamic change.
Seasonal Snapshot:All three patterns firming until the end of the year.

British: 05Dec With thesizable intervention led action now in the rear view mirror, Sterling remains in a consolidation pattern. Which direction it breaks out to is now the question. If it’s positive, it’s likely on a shorter-term pattern basis with a reasonable breakout above 1.570.
If it’s negative however, it’s in keeping with the bearish action from late October highs. This targets a lower low than late Nov and possibly the early Oct lows below 1.52.
Of note is that our latest shift in Momentum was after a materially shorter period than the previous 2 shifts.
Sterling also remains well below the 200-day Moving Average, which is still declining. Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr is diverting from the 15&30yr: 5yr continues the descent into the end of the year, the 15&30yr move higher.

Canadian 05Dec The Loonie participated in the early AM rally to levels close to the initial rally levels from last week’s intervention. Since peaking near 9 AM Central this AM, it fell to test the 9800 support and bounced back into the congestion near the lower end of the post intervention action.
The 200-day MA is still declining which is counter to the current daily Momentum
Seasonal Snapshot:All three patterns are weak through the end of the year.

Dollar Index: 05Dec While the post intervention action has clearly been consolidative and its daily Momentum shifted negative, its 200-day Moving Average still seems to be bottoming. The tug of war going on between longer-term and shorter-term action is definitely worth paying attention to.
Without further external actions by authorities, we expected previous pricing dynamics to resume their directional bias, regardless of our current technical tone.
Seasonal Snapshot: Choppy consolidation with a downward bias until year end.

Euro-FX: 05Dec If you stand back from the picture of last week’s noisy intervention led rally, the Euro remains in decidedly negatively biased bearish pattern. However, if as expected, the Euro-zone leaders can’t figure out how to put the debt crisis genie back in the bottle, we expect to see more negative action in the future. We look at current action as being not so much as positive as less negative in tone…for now. However, watch the and tighten risk controls if the Euro again looks to be breaking down against the recent lows near 1.32. Some sort of artificial government dynamic is likely there.
Seasonal Snapshot: A more positive bias until the end of the year.

Yen: 05Dec We remain with some of the same comment from last week, that for all intents and purposes the Yen has gone nowhere post intervention. Daily momentum is still negative and our shorter RSI indicates some modest downward upward pressure as well. Though there are fundamental reasons to short the Yen, the technical picture is not yet clear.12800 shows as strong support.
Seasonal Snapshot: Consolidation with a downward bias ion all three patterns until year end.

Energies: 05Dec Warmer temperatures may be constraining Heating Oil’s participation in the resumption of the Petro sector’s upward bias. It is still lagging the recent positive turn in Crude and RBOB’s Momentum. Consequently, be watchful of Crude and RBOB’s historically Overbot conditions.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three tracked Petro markets are in a pronounced negative bias until mid December.

Crude: 05Dec A Doji Candle, indecison day after squirting higher overnight. The 200-Day Moving Average (95.90) continues to provide support in the recent wide, volatile consolidation range, capped at 102.00. Momentum is about to go positive, but beware the fact that the market is revisiting Overbot conditions again. Volume is trending lower after Tuesday’s monster bounce off the 200-day moving average.

NatGas: 05Dec The weekend’s warmer temperatures undermined our positively tilting technical picture which would be in keeping with our view that NatGas is attempting to build a base around the 3.50 level. All that’s lacking is cold weather. Watch this market and Northern temperatures carefully for the next several weeks. A protracted cold spell would be needed to chew through the record storage levels to produce a supply side rally. Without it, look for a further test of the 3.45 support, now in the Jan, Feb, and March contracts.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 15 & 30yr patterns are pointed strongly to the downside through the end of the year. The 5yr is sideways with a mild downward bias.

Equities: 05Dec Our rising Rates of Change are keeping Momentums positive, but all three markets we track are well off their highs as of this writing.
As we noted last Friday, the complete reversal of our RSI for all three tracked markets (from the teens last week to the mid 70’s, as of this writing… too far, too fast) makes the market vulnerable for a fall.
The SP’s 200-day Moving Average and falling trend line resistance at 1260 is providing resistance, but both the Dow and NASDAQ have broken out above. Indeed, the Dow has led the charge higher and is flirting with the mid November highs. Neither the SP nor NASDAQ can boast this dynamic. Watch these previous highs:
SP1285
Dow 12200
NASDAQ 2400
Although Volume across the sector exploded on Wednesday’s rally, it has fallen off a cliff on the last two sessions’ quiet consolidation.
Seasonal Snapshot: The SP & Dow’s 15&30yr patterns are in an uptrend for the rest of the year.
The NASDAQ’s upward pattern has been in place since the middle of July and continues until the end of the year.

Grains:05Dec Consolidation and retracement from overextension to the downside has been the theme for the last several sessions. Today’s negative action keeps the pressure on, however, and targets the recent lows.

Corn:05Dec The March contract’s consolidation fulcrum remains at 6.00, but a move below the double bottom at 5.85 would cement the negative technical picture and a harbinger for more losses. Recent strength has seen March fail to break out above the declining trend line that dates back to the 11/9 high.
Volume has declined since last Wednesday’s rally.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr pattern leads the choppy 15&30yr patterns gently higher until the end of February.

Soybeans: 05Dec Momentum has moved positive and the RSI is headed higher off of Oversold levels. However, the 200-day Moving Average is still falling and the Jan contract is still struggling with falling trend line resistance at today’s highs. That fact and the January resistance at 1165 should provide a drag on positive performance.
Seasonal Snapshot: Consolidation in the 30yr pattern and more choppy in the 5&15 yr ends in mid Dec when all three take a more positive tone through the end of the year.

Wheat: 05Dec A bearish engulfing pattern (a higher high and lower low, settling down on the day) sets the market up for more losses. The March contract settled right at descending trend line support from back to July.
Our primary indicators are positive in bias, but our Rate of Change is showing some weakness. Addtionally, the 200-day Moving Average does pose a longer-term negative dynamic. Be careful of any break below 6.00
Seasonal Snapshot: The 15& 30 year patterns are generally trending negative into mid December. The 5-year pattern rises rapidly into early December starting 11/16.

Interest Rates: 05Dec Still an inside day for the long-dated maturities as of this writing, despite the failure to make new lows on this morning’s weakness, and the subsequent rally back to just lower on the day. Our falling Rates of Change keeps the pressure on Momemtums that are already quite negative, but trending lower Volumes across the entire sector call the recent weakness into question. These dips have tested rising trend line support going back to July.
Upside risk in the long-dated maturities is the developing Oversold condition. Look for a further bounces off the intervention lows.
Seasonal Snapshot: 5, 15 & 30 yr patterns in long-dated maturities’ US Treasury instruments are weak until mid December. The 2yr has a negative bias until year end, but is much more choppy.

Metals:

Gold: 05Dec More consolidative action around the 1750 level. The case could be made for a symmetrical triangle formation, since early September, which is currently bound by 1700-1765. Recent action has the market easing off the upper boundary.
Improving technicals, with Momentum on the cusp of going positive, are on hold today. A break out above noted resistance would be further cemented if the market can take out the previous early November highs just above 1800.
The general rising trend we noted from the spike lower on 9/26 and the subsequent retest lower that bottomed near 1590 is still in place.
Seasonal Snapshot: General strength through the end of the year in the 5, 15 & 30yr patterns.

Copper: 05Dec The consolidation of last week’s huge rally seems to be stalling out below the late October highs, but through the upper boundary (355.00) of what appears to be a symmetrical triangle from mid September. Momentum remains positive, but the almost comical reversal of our RSI (from the mid 20’s last week to 72 as of this writing… too far too fast) has us searching for resistance. Volume has been trending lower for the last three weeks. Be on guard if you are long, or trying to pick a spot to go short. This market is reacting to headlines in vicious fashion.
That said, the 50% retracement of the August-September decline, about 20 cents higher at 375.00 offered resistance in late October and the market made an ensuing higher low, which can be constructive.
A sustained move through this level targets the (falling) 200-day moving average another 25 cents higher at 400.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate until year-end.

Softs:

Cocoa: 05Dec There is only one thing, actually one number, that we would like to note: 2.94. On a scale of 1-100, this is the measure of overextension in Cocoa. This is the most Oversold we have ever seen any market. Volatility is falling off a cliff. Look at option purchase strategies.
The recently rising Rate of Change tried to ease the selling pressure, but it ended up being more consolidation of losses and has resumed its weakness.
Seasonal Snapshot: Strong tendency to the upside until 15Dec.

Coffee: 05Dec Wide, violent consolidation of September’s losses. Today’s 8cent range follows three out of last four sessions’ +10cent ranges. This month long range has been bound by 220.00-240.00. Our Rate of Change and Momentum are flipping back and forth, waiting for a directional move. However, the falling 200-day Moving Average is detrimental to the health of the market.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr is more pronounced, but all three patterns have a positive bias until 19Dec when choppy consolidation takes over at the beginning of Feb.

Cotton: 05Dec Continued consolidation of losses and not able to sustain a rally, where other physical markets have been. The fact that it’s not Oversold is probably a negative as it gives it that much more room to run to the downside.
Seasonal Snapshot: Moderate upward bias is interrupted by a downdraft in early December, then marches higher until year end.

Sugar: 05Dec March is still struggling with the 24.00 resistance level. Our rising Rate of Change has pulled Momentum positive and points our focus towards how the market acts at this recent resistance area. If it can’t rally, lower tests are again expected. That said, the 200-day moving average (26.60) has been moving decidedly lower for a while and should cap any rallies.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 30yr pattern leads all three higher into Dec.


Disclaimer:
There is risk in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.]]> Tue, 06 Dec 2011 22:55:40 -0500 138614 The Commodities Review For The Week Of December 5, 2011 http://www.dreamteammoney.com/index.php?showtopic=138509 The Softs Review
For the week of December 5, 2011

By Jurgens H. Bauer

While outside markets had a big up week last week, the soft complex continues to experience price declines. The prospect of any sustained rally among members of the soft markets looks to be short lived and likely a selling opportunity. Open interest levels for the most part indicate long liquidation in the group. Technical bias is for lower prices. Fundamentally, I can see no solid reason to approach any of these markets from the buy side with any conviction. I lean bearish towards the entire complex.

Already hearing rumors of Fed today cutting by 0.25 additionally interest on swaplines. This will certainly chase nervous shorts, but will it be sufficient to attract meaningful buyers? I remain a skeptic and as such will look for opportunities on the short side.

Reduced Size Image
***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



The Energies Review
For the week of December 5, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

Another week, another new recent high in the WTI space as crude rallied to $101.50 to close out the week on increased concern over Iran's crude supplies. The market has really been on a huge wave to the upside. This looks likely to continue as the equity markets have once again found their footing following the downturn ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. WTI spreads in the back of the curve remain strong in backwardation and the Jan arb has recently moved up again into the -8 dollar range. All signs point to a higher week and the next target will be $103.50.


The Metals Review
For the week of December 5, 2011


By Daniel Cronin

Gold and silver both had great moves last week but look as though they might be in for a downturn this week. The gold market just can't seem to get past $1,765 in Feb. With the recent rise in the equity market the precious metals sector has found it harder and harder to rally and I believe gold is due for a correction back to $1,700.

Copper remains a buy on any pullback as this market has gone straight up the last week. There is huge resistance at $3.63 so watch out for this level when trading this week.

Reduced Size Image
***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.]]> Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:38:58 -0500 138509